Preakness Odds 2023: Picks and Predictions Based on Recent Betting Lines
Mage ran for the roses at the 2023 Kentucky Derby, and now the colt will set his eyes on the Black-Eyed Susans of the 2023 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore, Maryland.
The Derby winner's co-owners were confident enough in their horse's form after the big Derby win to chase history and enter the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
The second leg always offers a different challenge. The 1 3/16th-mile race will test Mage's tactical speed, as he has slightly less time to make a late move on the pack, a strategy that worked for him at Churchill Downs.
He'll also be racing against all new names in this year's edition of the American Classic. The other seven horses in the field did not run in the Derby and will ostensibly have fresher legs.
That hasn't stopped oddsmakers from making Mage one of the top choices for the race. Here's a look at the latest odds and predictions for who will win, place and show at Pimlico.
Post Positions and Odds
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1. National Treasure 4-1
2. Chase the Chaos 50-1
3. Mage 8-5
4. Coffee With Chris 20-1
5. Red Route One 10-1
6. Perform 15-1
7. Blazing Sevens 6-1
8. First Mission 5-2
Odds via FanDuel Racing.
Preview and Predictions
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It's become a more prevalent trend that the Kentucky Derby is not considered the ideal prep race for the Preakness. Obviously, that's not true for any owners and trainers with Triple Crown aspirations, but the strategy was preferred for every runner in the field other than Mage.
The Derby had multiple horses scratch before post time two weeks ago, but even those aren't the colts that make up this field.
Mage has his work cut out from him trying to make the two-week turnaround and beating a whole new field of challenger, but trainer Gustavo Delgado has confidence in his trainee.
"Just because of the fact that he has only four starts, and usually (horses) tend to get better with races, especially after the third, fourth (starts), I think he has good momentum," said Delgado, per Bob Ehalt of BloodHorse. "That gives us confidence. But every day is crucial."
National Treasure will be a notable challenger. The colt is trained by Bob Baffert after a stint with Tim Yakteen in hopes of getting the horse eligible for the Kentucky Derby. However, he did not qualify, and the horse was returned to Baffert who is still suspended from entering horses at Churchill Downs after Medina Spirit tested positive for a banned substance, per BloodHorse.
He's posted three triple-digit speed figures, including a 101, when he placed fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.
He'll have to show more early speed than usual if he wants to break from the No. 1 post and get a win. The field does not have any clear pace-setters, so he may be forced into that role to have a shot at winning.
A slower-paced race could favor second-choice First Mission. The Brad Cox-trained colt will break from the farthest outside post and could benefit from a slower field that doesn't take advantage of early positioning.
First Mission is lightly raced, but Cox has been impressed with the son of Street Sense.
"He's lightly raced but I liked what I saw of him all winter and into the Lexington," Cox said of First Mission, per a press release. "He bounced out of it in good shape, and he's got a lot of talent. I'm looking forward to giving him a swing at a Grade 1."
The Lexington Cox is referring to is a win at the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. The fact that he's a graded stakes winner makes him a legitimate threat in a field that is short on accolades to this point in the racing season.
Mage himself was not a star before the Derby. He was a 15-1 contender who outperformed expectations by a considerable margin.
Usually, the Preakness is a tough race for a closer like him to win. The shorter track can favor pace-setters and stalkers, but the pace could be slower here without a clear front-runner.
Regardless, it's hard to back the Derby winner in this spot. One of the difficulties of winning the Triple Crown is how hard it is for a horse to make the quick turnaround from one leg to the next. Going against a whole field of colts who aren't making that same turnaround could be too much to overcome.
The slower pace is going to help. He will likely play a factor down the home stretch, but the recent graded stakes win and rest advantage are enough to go with First Mission.
Prediction
1. First Mission
2. Mage
3. National Treasure
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