6 NFL Players Who Could Shed the 'Bust' Label in 2023
Spring is a time for hope and high expectations. The NFL draft is always a good reminder of that. The late-April event is a constant source of optimism for teams across the league.
But inevitably some of those picks struggle in their first contracts and get labeled busts.
For players picked in the first round, having the fifth-year option declined is often synonymous with a bust label. The first two players on this list were deemed not worthy of that fifth-year option.
But we extended this list to other first-round picks and a second-rounder who haven't proved themselves as valuable starters after at least two seasons.
Fortunately, players can shed that label. Progression in the league isn't always linear. Sometimes it takes a chance in circumstances, coaching or opportunity for a player to show their potential and prove they aren't a bust.
The following players have the potential to shed the bust label in the 2023 season.
OT Mekhi Becton, New York Jets
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Historically, injuries have been one of the biggest bust factors. Availability is one of the most important abilities, and a player who can't stay on the field will not make an impact.
That's been the story for Mekhi Becton throughout his NFL career.
Becton has missed all but one game over the last two seasons with knee injuries. An injury initially expected to sideline him for four to six weeks ended up costing him the season in 2021, and he had another season-ending injury before the year even started in 2022.
It comes as no surprise that the Jets declined his fifth-year option.
There's still hope that Becton can prove he should be part of the Jets' long-term plan, though. Rich Cimini of ESPN reported the tackle, who was 6'7", 364 pounds at the combine in 2020, has dropped down to around 350 pounds after weighing around 400 a couple of years ago.
Becton had a strong rookie campaign back in 2020. He allowed seven sacks but earned a respectable 74.4 grade from PFF.
When healthy, Becton has the size and strength to erase people in the run game while providing solid protection on the edge.
If he can stay healthy, he's going to be a huge asset for the Jets offense and has the potential to prove he was deserving of a first-round pick.
OT Andre Dillard, Tennessee Titans
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The Philadelphia Eagles drafted Andre Dillard with the 22nd pick in the 2019 draft hoping to find a cornerstone at left tackle.
They just didn't realize they already had that guy on the roster in 2018 seventh-round pick Jordan Mailata.
Dillard started four games as a rookie in 2019 as the understudy for Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. He would have likely had the inside track on a starting job in 2020, but a torn bicep cost him the season. Mailata stepped in and was fantastic, leaving Dillard without a role on the offensive line.
Since then, he's made appearances in 13 games with five starts, giving up three sacks, per Sports Info Solutions.
He found a deal with the Tennessee Titans in free agency. Mike Vrabel's squad was willing to give him a three-year, $29 million contract to find out whether he can live up to his original draft stock.
The Titans are rebuilding their offensive line this offseason. Taylor Lewan is gone. So are Ben Jones and Dennis Daley. First-round pick Peter Skoronski and Dillard could very well be the new starting tackles on a remade offensive line.
It isn't uncommon for tackles to take a while to fully blossom in the league. Dillard's time serving as a backup could be what he needed to become a valuable starter for the Titans.
QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
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There's no greater quarterback mystery in the NFL than Trey Lance.
Whether he's a bust or just on the wrong end of some seriously bad luck is up for debate. Either way, he enters the 2023 season with a lot to prove.
The third pick of the 2021 draft hasn't started and finished back-to-back games since 2019 when he was a redshirt freshman at North Dakota State. Through a series of injuries and the Bison only playing one game in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Lance hasn't seen much action.
That makes it hard to judge the player the Niners traded up for. San Francisco paid an enormous price to draft Lance, but he hasn't been the answer thus far.
After sitting behind Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021, he was supposed to get his shot in 2022. Unfortunately, a fractured ankle in Week 2 brought that to an end, and the emergence of Brock Purdy casts doubt on Lance's future in San Francisco.
The Niners made it to the NFC Championship Game with Purdy under center as a seventh-round rookie. He suffered a UCL injury that gives him an ambiguous timetable to return to the lineup. David Lombardi of The Athletic reported the team has been "bracing" for a return by Week 4.
General manager John Lynch has all but named Purdy the starter when he's healthy.
But the first few weeks of the season could give Lance a window to prove that he was worth the pick. As Purdy showed last season, the Niners system and surrounding talent are ideal for a quarterback breakout.
With better health and an opportunity to slot into an offense that features Christian, McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, Lance could finally show his stuff and potentially wind up getting traded to another starting opportunity if the team wants to go with Purdy.
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WR Terrace Marshall Jr., Carolina Panthers
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Terrace Marshall Jr. is the forgotten man from the 2019 LSU Tigers team that had one of the best offenses in college football history. Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson were the top two receivers for Joe Burrow and both went on to be first-round picks and stars.
Marshall was the third receiver on that team, racking up 671 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The next season he was second on the team with 731 receiving yards and first with 10 touchdowns. All of that production led the Carolina Panthers to take him with the 59th pick of the 2021 draft.
Marshall profiled as a potential second wide receiver who could be a primary threat in the red zone. He's shown flashes of that but still hasn't broken out. He was second in a bad Panthers passing attack last season with 490 yards and one touchdown.
He should be in a much better position to put up bigger numbers. With DJ Moore off to Chicago as part of the trade to move up to No. 1 and draft Bryce Young, the Panthers really don't have a No. 1 wide receiver.
Marshall will be competing against 32-year-old Adam Thielen and the oft-injured DJ Chark Jr. for touches. Frank Reich and his staff are going to have a good plan in place to help Young succeed in his rookie season.
That plan is likely to include a big role for Marshall.
WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs
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The New York Giants already gave up on Kadarius Toney after drafting him with the 20th pick in the 2021 NFL draft. Their decision to trade him to the Kansas City Chiefs may have saved his career, though.
Toney never quite caught on in New York. A 10-catch, 189-yard game against the Dallas Cowboys in a blowout loss represented a disproportionate share of his 41 catches for 420 yards in a Giants uniform.
Injuries were a big part of the problem. He suffered a hamstring injury in training camp of his rookie season and then dealt with ankle and quad ailments. In 2022, a hamstring injury kept him out of the lineup from Week 3 to Week 8, before making his debut with the Chiefs in Week 9.
His regular-season work with the Chiefs was nothing to get excited about. He had 14 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns in seven games. He got a little more involved in the playoffs with seven catches for 50 yards, including a five-yard touchdown reception in the Super Bowl.
Now Toney gets a full offseason to get healthy and acquainted with the Chiefs playbook. If there's a quarterback and a coach who are going to unlock Toney's potential and turn him into the big-play threat Toney has shown he can be in flashes, it's Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman leaving the Chiefs in free agency, there's going to be more room for Toney to grow into a role. In this offense, that's all it takes to break out.
Edge Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints
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You would be excused if you forgot the New Orleans Saints selected Payton Turner with the 28th pick of the 2021 draft.
He was picked ahead of Gregory Rousseau, Odafe Oweh and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka in the first round. The Houston alum was drafted to carry on the Saints' reputation for having productive defensive ends, eventually filling the role of Cameron Jordan.
It hasn't panned out that way. Injuries have limited Turner's development as he has played in just 13 games in his first two years in the league.
Turner was already going to have a hard time carving out a role on a team with Jordan, Marcus Davenport and Carl Granderson. Not being able to stay on the field has limited those opportunities even more.
With Davenport leaving New Orleans in free agency, Turner will have the opportunity to step into a bigger role. Something he noted himself in an interview with KPRC2 Houston's Aaron Wilson (h/t John Sigler of Saints Wire):
"It's an opportunity for me to step up," Turner said. "And just go prove why they went and got me in the first round. We've got some good players at [defensive] end and along the D-line— across the board. Just going to earn it in camp and go out and play well; that's the main focus right now."
When Turner has been on the field, he's shown some promise. He's logged three sacks in 13 career games and had a pressure percentage of 9.1 in 2022, per Sports Info Solutions.
If he can stay healthy, he'll build on his pass-rushing talent and finally become a key element on the Saints defensive line.
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