Playoff Chances for Each MLB Team at 2023 Season's Quarter Mark
It's no longer early in the 2023 Major League Baseball season. About a quarter of this year's games are officially in the books, giving would-be contenders that much less time to make their case for the playoffs.
This, of course, makes now a good time to check in on how those cases are going.
We've rounded up all 30 teams' playoff chances according to FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, FiveThirtyEight and their betting odds at DraftKings. We then ranked the teams as candidates for the 12 postseason slots that must ultimately be filled in the American League and National League.
Rather than hit on teams one at a time, we filtered them into eight categories that summarize where their playoff pursuits stand. These range from "Better Luck Next Year" to "The Best Bets."
Note: All odds are current as of Monday, May 15.
30-27: Better Luck Next Year
1 of 8
FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and FiveThirtyEight all give these teams a 3.0 percent or worse chance of making the playoffs, while DraftKings doesn't even bother assigning odds.
30. Oakland Athletics (9-34)
FG: 0.0%, BR: <0.1%, 538: <1%
It's not just their dismal record. At minus-160, the A's also have the worst run differential for a team through 43 games since at least 1901. The only thing A's owner John Fisher can take credit for is executing the plan that didn't work in Major League, though the front office deserves more sincere credit for digging up major league OPS leader Brent Rooker.
29. Kansas City Royals (12-31)
FG: 0.2%, BR: <0.1%, 538: <1%
Temped to defend the Royals by pointing out that they've played 32 games against winning teams, but there's naturally a question if those teams would be winners if the Royals didn't lose games so easily. About the only advantage they have on the A's is a superior ability to pitch, at least to the extent that the club's ERA doesn't begin with a seven.
28. Washington Nationals (18-23)
FG: 0.2%, BR: 0.6%, 538: 2%
The Nationals have recently established some positive momentum in winning nine out of their last 15 games, and they have some keepers on the mound in the persons of Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore. If only they weren't third-to-last in the Senior Circuit in scoring, one could imagine this team at .500 or maybe even above.
27. Colorado Rockies (18-24)
FG: 0.0%, BR: 0.6%, 538: 2%
Do the oddsmakers not know that the Rockies have won 10 out of 14? Or do they just not care? We'll presume the latter is the answer, and not unjustifiably so. It's a nice run the Rockies are on, but they're still a team with non-threatening players on both sides of the ball and with bad injury luck to boot. Finishing last in the NL West is their destiny.
26-24: So You're Telling Me There's a Chance
2 of 8
At least one of FG, BR or 538 gives the team better than a 3 percent chance of making the playoffs, and DraftKings actually assigns playoff odds.
26. Cincinnati Reds (18-23)
FG: 2.1%, BR: 0.4%, 538: 6%, DK: +1700
The Reds have achieved the feat of climbing above the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, which now happens to be a division with no clear favorite. The Reds lack a big bopper who can help provide run support for talented hurlers such as Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft but, hey, maybe Joey Votto can be that guy when he returns.
25. Detroit Tigers (18-21)
FG: 3.0%, BR: 7.6%, 538: 5%, DK: +1200
The Tigers offense is still one of the "avert your eyes" variety and the pitching is broadly not good, so we'll buy that they're lucky to only be three games below .500. But they're at least worth watching when Eduardo Rodriguez or Alex Lange is on the mound, and also just in case Spencer Torkelson finally breaks out or if Javier Báez turns back the clock.
24. Chicago White Sox (14-28)
FG: 2.8%, BR: 0.5%, 538: 3%, DK: +1100
The White Sox threatened to go on a run with a 5-2 stretch between April 30 and May 7, but so much for that. One nonetheless hesitates to bury them because they have a bunch of guys (i.e., Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn and Tim Anderson) who are better than they've shown and others (i.e., Liam Hendriks, Garrett Crochet and Eloy Jiménez) who won't be on the injured list forever.
23-20: Not Really in It, Not Really Out of It
3 of 8
At least one of FG, BR and 538 gives the team better than a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs, but none of the three gives them a 30 percent chance.
23. Miami Marlins (20-21)
FG: 23.8%, BR: 4.5%, 538: 19%, DK: +250
We're more with Baseball Reference on the Marlins, but we're not going to totally discount their more favorable odds either. Even if the Fish are clearly overachieving, they're certainly not short on pitching talent and their offense might ascend from the bottom of MLB in scoring if Jazz Chisholm Jr. starts consistently tapping into his superstar upside.
22. San Francisco Giants (18-23)
FG: 28.8%, BR: 10.2%, 538: 17%, DK: +340
The Giants have more heavy hitters than many people outside of San Francisco might realize, not to mention three very good starting pitchers—looking at you, Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani—and an elite closer in Camilo Doval. That they nonetheless have a minus-24 run differential speaks to just how little they have in support of these guys.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates (22-19)
FG: 13.8%, BR: 20.3%, 538: 19%, DK: +550
There perhaps ought to be more confidence in a team that's spent 22 days in first place in the NL Central but, well, you try losing 11 out of 13 and see if the oddsmakers still like you. Yet the Bucs have the pieces to at least stay afloat, especially if Mitch Keller continues his breakout as a Cy Young-caliber ace.
20. Los Angeles Angels (22-20)
FG: 25.6%, BR: 10.6%, 538: 28%, DK: +220
The Angels are on track to win more games than they lose for the first time since 2015. So, that's something. As to whether they can make the leap to being a proper playoff contender, that'll come down to them getting more from Tyler Anderson, Reid Detmers, Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon and especially Mike Trout. And you know what? That's not a bad bet.
.jpg?w=256 "Twins Royals Baseball")
19-16: Lurking in the Background
4 of 8
At least two of FG, BR and 538 give the team a better than a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs, but none of the three gives them a 50 percent chance.
19. Boston Red Sox (22-20)
FG: 29.8%, BR: 15.4%, 538: 37%, DK: +260
The Red Sox are obviously up against some tough customers in the AL East, and now they've gone cold with losses in six out of their last seven games. But with their dangerous offense—currently ranked No. 4 in runs scored per game—still humming along and Chris Sale starting to resemble his vintage self, Boston has enough to at least keep its eyes on a wild card prize.
18. Cleveland Guardians (19-21)
FG: 22.0%, BR: 33.9%, 538: 35%, DK: +230
The Guardians seemed to be likely beneficiaries of MLB's new rules, but you just can't hit .228 as a team and expect to get away with it. Yet there's still hope for the defending AL Central champs. The list of guys who can be better starts with Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario and Josh Naylor, and it won't be long before Triston McKenzie is back on the mound.
17. Chicago Cubs (19-22)
FG: 20.5%, BR: 41.1%, 538: 27%, DK: +360
The Cubs have lost 12 out of their last 17 games, so one might already be saying that it was fun while it lasted. As for us, we're suckers for run differential and thus drawn to a figure that, even after back-to-back blowout losses in Minnesota over the weekend, still stands strong at plus-27. The Cubs may not be so much backsliding as simply out of whack right now.
16. Seattle Mariners (21-20)
FG: 25.3%, BR: 32.3%, 538: 32%, DK: +180
The Mariners have been a disappointment so far, but they're still doing better at this point than they were in 2022, when they started off at 17-24. And while their pitching injuries do send up red flags, Bryce Miller's sensational rise helps obscure those and we know that Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández are better hitters than they've shown so far.
15-10: It's a Coin Flip
5 of 8
At least one of FG, BR and 538 gives the team better than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs, but at least one also gives them less than a 50 percent chance.
15. St. Louis Cardinals (17-25)
FG: 29.9%, BR: 52.8%, 538: 24%, DK: +170
Are the Cardinals in last place in the NL Central? Yes. Do they have real problems? Also yes. But they also have a worse record than they should based on their run differential, and they've been warming up with wins in seven out of eight with plenty of help from a previously cold Nolan Arenado. If nothing else, it'll be a surprise if this team stays in last place all year.
14. New York Mets (20-22)
FG: 58.1%, BR: 49.9%, 538: 58%, DK: -185
The Mets have lost 15 out of their last 21 games, so these odds give off a frantic "it's still good, it's still good!" sort of vibe. They'll only pan out if the club's purportedly vaunted starting rotation ceases to be generally injured and ineffective and becomes, you know, actually good. Perhaps it will...but don't ask us to count on it.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks (24-18)
FG: 40.4%, BR: 68.1%, 538: 38%, DK: +190
Whether the Diamondbacks have enough pitching underneath Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly remains a good question, but you gotta love how this team puts points on the board. They're batting .270 as a team and running wild on the basepaths. And given that they're 5-3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, it's not to be assumed that they can't hang with the big kids.
12. Baltimore Orioles (26-15)
FG: 37.2%, BR: 51.8%, 538: 35%, DK: +120
That the Orioles could get off to such a good start despite having a rotation without a that guy in it seems unsustainable. Still, there's no denying what the team does well. Namely, hit and close games out with a truly excellent bullpen. If they can so much as hang around until John Means is back from Tommy John surgery, they'll be on a good track to October.
11. Philadelphia Phillies (20-21)
FG: 53.3%, BR: 24.9%, 538: 53%, DK: -135
The Phillies were 21-29 at one point last year and still ended up going to the World Series, so stranger things have literally already happened. And with Bryce Harper back and miraculously already hitting like his usual self, all this year's team might need to break out in a similar way is for Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber to be their usual selves as well.
10. San Diego Padres (20-22)
FG: 65.3%, BR: 46.3%, 538: 63%, DK: -220
Hey, the Padres are over .500 if you disregard their 1-5 record against the Dodgers. In all seriousness, maybe the only thing standing between them and a season-defining hot streak is their big hitters getting on the same page at the same time. With Juan Soto already hot and Fernando Tatís Jr. doing just fine in his return, the pressure's all on Manny Machado.
9-8: The Good Bets
6 of 8
FG, BR and 538 all give the team better than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs, while DK has the team in the -150 to -250 range.
9. New York Yankees (24-19)
FG: 68.4%, BR: 59.6%, 538: 65%, DK: -210
The Yankees have at least managed to climb out of the AL East cellar, but what's sustaining them as much as anything is an 11-4 record against losing teams. It'll do for a positive in the meantime as Aaron Judge is healthy again and Anthony Volpe is beginning to break out, but what this team really needs to get its playoff pursuit on track is to stop racking up IL days. They lead the majors in days spent on the IL.
8. Texas Rangers (25-16)
FG: 64.7%, BR: 52.4%, 538: 51%, DK: -135
The Rangers leading the majors in scoring still feels too good to be true, but the looming return of Corey Seager won't exactly hurt the effort. And while there's also a question of volatility in the starting rotation, it's obviously a good sign that the wins have kept coming even during Jacob deGrom's latest absence. Point being: this might actually be a good team.
7-4: The Better Bets
7 of 8
FG, BR and 538 all give the team better than a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs, with a DraftKings line between -250 and -1000.
7. Houston Astros (22-19)
FG: 66.8%, BR: 93.5%, 538: 70%, DK: -265
Are we...are we sure the Astros are this good of a bet for the playoffs? They're barely above .500 and their injured list is loaded with prominent names. The good news, though, is that run prevention remains one of the club's big strengths, ranking third in runs allowed per game. And going forward, Yordan Álvarez should get more help from Alex Bregman and a soon-to-be healthy Jose Altuve on offense.
6. Toronto Blue Jays (24-17)
FG: 79.4%, BR: 79.1%, 538: 74%, DK: -330
The Blue Jays of 2022 and this year have never been far off from going weirdly cold, but things are definitely looking up right now following a three-game sweep of a dangerous Atlanta team. And going forward, there's more offense to be mined from George Springer and Daulton Varsho while Alek Manoah's ERA surely won't be north of 5.00 all year.
5. Milwaukee Brewers (23-18)
FG: 70.0%, BR: 80.6%, 538: 80%, DK: -265
Save for Rowdy Tellez's slugging and Devin Williams' ongoing airbending, not a whole lot is going exactly right for the Brewers in 2023. But they had ranked second in the National League in ERA prior to giving up an 18-spot to the Cardinals on Monday, and then there's that other thing that bodes well for Milwaukee's playoff hopes: the rest of the NL Central seems uninterested in keeping up.
4. Minnesota Twins (23-19)
FG: 79.4%, BR: 63.5%, 538: 72%, DK: -265
Speaking of teams that do run prevention well, only three teams have the Twins beat in that department. Seemingly everyone the Twins run out there is a quality pitcher, including major league ERA leader Sonny Gray. Offense has been harder to come by, but not so much amid a 27-run outburst over the weekend. In a related story, Carlos Correa finally broke his rake out in going 4-for-10 with five runs batted in.
3-1: The Best Bets
8 of 8
FG, BR and 538 all give the team better than a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs, with a DraftKings line above -1000.
3. Tampa Bay Rays (31-11)
FG: 95.4%, BR: 99.8%, 538: 93%, DK: -1600
Whether run differential or plain ol' won-loss record is your thing, the Rays are the best team in baseball. If there's one cause for concern, it's that they play in the league's most stacked division. If there's another, it's that they've been piling up pitching injuries. Yet theirs is as deep as rosters get, and they've mostly done fine with a 10-7 record within the division.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (27-15)
FG: 95.5%, BR: >99.9%, 538: 97%, DK: -2500
This was supposed to be the year that the Dodgers slipped just as the Padres took the next step. That's not how things are panning out, especially lately as the Dodgers have won 17 out of their last 21. And if any Dodgers storyline is worth rooting for, it's Clayton Kershaw mounting a run at what would be his fourth NL Cy Young Award in his age-35 season.
1. Atlanta (26-15)
FG: 98.4%, BR: 99.7%, 538: 95%, DK: -5000
With Max Fried and Kyle Wright both looking at lengthy stints on the IL, a pitching staff that otherwise leads the NL in runs allowed per game is suddenly thin. It's a good thing, then, that Ronald Acuña Jr.'s return to superstardom is one of many things going right offensively. Oh, and also that they're the only team in the NL East with a positive run differential.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
.jpg?w=480 "Twins Royals Baseball")
.jpg?w=600 "Biggest Winners and Losers After 30 Games ⚾")