Confidence Meter for Betting Favorites to Win Divisions for the 2023 NFL Season
DraftKings has posted its team futures betting odds for the 2023 NFL season. As of Thursday, the oddsmakers list two teams that missed the 2022 playoffs as favorites to win a division. We told you to expect changes in the postseason picture this year.
In the AFC, playoff teams from the previous campaign seem built to make another run through mid-January, but we could see an unpredictable NFC with the exception of a couple of teams.
Using DraftKings' odds, we took a look at the betting favorite to win each division and came up with a confidence meter for that squad to finish first place.
A team's confidence meter ranges from one (lowest) to 10 (highest) based on offseason moves it made or roster changes within that club's division.
AFC East: Buffalo Bills
1 of 8
Odds: +130
The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East for three consecutive seasons, and they've done it with a top-three scoring offense and defense over the past two terms. By far, the Bills have fielded the most complete team in the division over the past couple of years, but they'll play much tougher games against their rivals in 2023.
Recently, we ranked the AFC East as the toughest division for a reason.
The New York Jets will pose the biggest threat to the Bills' AFC East title reign. They acquired four-time league MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers, and he'll immediately elevate their passing attack, which recorded the second-fewest touchdowns in 2022. Gang Green finished fourth in points and yards allowed last year. With Rodgers, the Jets have a legitimate shot to win a division title.
This offseason, the Miami Dolphins made notable moves for their defense, acquiring three-time All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams and hiring Vic Fangio, who's fielded a top-10 scoring unit in four of his last five years as a coordinator or head coach.
However, oft-injured quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn't the most reliable in terms of availability, which hurts the Dolphins' chances of winning the division. He's missed 14 games in three seasons and contemplated retirement after suffering multiple concussions in 2022.
While some analysts may dismiss the New England Patriots, they brought back Bill O'Brien, who served as their offensive coordinator in 2011. He's a significant upgrade over former offensive play-caller Matt Patricia, a former defensive coordinator. Unlike last year, the Patriots may be a tough foe for the Dolphins in the upcoming term.
The Bills should win the AFC East for a fourth consecutive year, but their division opponents have certainly closed the gap.
Confidence Meter: 8
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals
2 of 8
Odds: +130
With a healthy Joe Burrow, the Cincinnati Bengals went from the AFC North basement to the penthouse. They've won consecutive division titles and went to the AFC Championship Game in back-to-back years.
While the Bengals should be favored to win the AFC North, they're in a situation that's similar to the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati will play in one of the league's best divisions. Keep in mind that the Bengals lost three of their four games against AFC North clubs last year.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken and a revamped wide receiver group with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor. While Jackson may go through an adjustment period in a new system, the Ravens have enough firepower to match scoring drives with the Bengals.
The Pittsburgh Steelers shored up their defense, selecting cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and defensive tackle Keeanu Benton in the second round of this year's draft. Patrick Peterson, Keanu Neal and Chandon Sullivan will provide veteran experience in the secondary.
Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett heads into his second year with key additions at left tackle (Broderick Jones), wide receiver (Allen Robinson II) and tight end (Darnell Washington). He's going to lead a more productive offense than the 26th-ranked unit from last year.
In 2022, Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson missed 11 games for violating the league's personal conduct policy after 26 women filed civil lawsuits accusing him of sexual assault and misconduct. Without him for more than half the season, the Browns went 7-10. He'll account for a few more wins this year.
Every team in the AFC North may finish with a winning record, which would make it difficult for the Bengals to run away with another division title.
Confidence Meter: 7
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
3 of 8
Odds: -150
Between 2021 and 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars rose from last to first in the AFC South, and now, Jacksonville looks like a safe bet to win its division.
Last year, the Jaguars won six of their last seven regular-season games and then beat the Los Angeles Chargers in a playoff contest. Clearly, they're on the rise, with third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence coming off a Pro Bowl year. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans stand at a crossroads with their quarterback or need time to develop a rookie at the position.
In the final week of the 2022 campaign, Jacksonville beat the Tennessee Titans to clinch a playoff berth. With that defeat, Tennessee lost seven straight games and went into the offseason having to answer questions about quarterback Ryan Tannehill's status with the team.
The Titans selected quarterback Will Levis in the second round of the draft, which adds another layer of uncertainty to Tannehill's future. If Tennessee has a slow start, specifically on offense, the coaching staff may look to the rookie for a spark, which may result in some uneven offensive performances.
The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts have first-year head coaches and selected quarterbacks within the first four picks of the 2023 draft. While we shouldn't write those teams off, the Jaguars will likely finish with more wins than a couple of rebuilding squads in their division.
Confidence Meter: 10
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AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
4 of 8
Odds: -165
You can make this bet with your eyes closed and feel confident about the odds.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won seven consecutive division titles and two Super Bowls over the last four years. The Chiefs have stiff competition in the AFC West, but their rivals cannot keep up with the connection between head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Without a doubt, the Chiefs have the best head coach-quarterback duo in the AFC West, which is why they're a shoo-in to win an eighth consecutive division title.
Sure, the Los Angeles Chargers will give the Chiefs close scares with quarterback Justin Herbert throwing downfield to wide receivers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston. If healthy, edge-rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa can close out games. They have a third edge-rushing mate in rookie second-rounder Tuli Tuipulotu, who led the FBS in sacks (13.5) last year.
With that said, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley has fielded a defensive unit that's ranked 20th or worse in yards and points allowed in his first two seasons with the team. Los Angeles isn't going to dethrone Kansas City if it struggles to make stops.
The Denver Broncos may enter the playoff discussion with their new head coach, Sean Payton. He's won a Super Bowl with the New Orleans Saints and 63 percent of his games. The Broncos may snap an 11-game losing streak against Mahomes, but Payton has to get Russell Wilson back on track to become a true threat within the division.
The Chiefs haven't lost to the Las Vegas Raiders since Week 5 of the 2020 campaign. Kansas City played "Ring Around the Rosie" while dominating the Silver and Black in its 2022 season finale, which tells you everything you need to know about that rivalry in its current state.
Confidence Meter: 10
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
5 of 8
Odds: +105
Coming off a Super Bowl appearance, the Philadelphia Eagles are the betting favorite to win the NFC East despite losing key starters, including defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson, running back Miles Sanders, guard Isaac Seumalo, safety Marcus Epps and linebacker T.J. Edwards in free agency.
Like the Cincinnati Bengals last year, the Eagles should be able to avoid a Super Bowl hangover. They refilled voids and added more talent on defense, selecting defensive tackle Jalen Carter, edge-rusher Nolan Smith, safety Sydney Brown and cornerback Kelee Ringo in the first four rounds of the draft. They also acquired running backs D'Andre Swift via trade and Rashaad Penny in the free agency.
From top to bottom, the Eagles still have the best roster in the NFC East, but they'll face their toughest challenge in matchups with the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys cut running back Ezekiel Elliott, lost tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency and parted ways with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, but they continue to score at a high rate.
Assuming running back Tony Pollard makes a full recovery from a fractured fibula, he'll handle the majority rushing workload. Quarterback Dak Prescott has a solid wide receiver trio with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks on the perimeter. If his offensive line holds up, he'll have enough time to pick apart defenses.
The Eagles may sweep the New York Giants and Washington Commanders in 2023.
The Giants already have question marks in terms of availability within their pass-catching group. Wide receivers Sterling Shepard and Wan'Dale Robinson are recovering from torn ACLs. Parris Campbell has a lengthy injury history, and tight end Darren Waller has missed 14 games since 2021.
If running back Saquon Barkley has issues staying healthy as he did between 2019 and 2021, the Giants may regress after they overachieved with a mediocre scoring offense and defense last year.
As for the Commanders, they're not going to contend for a division title with second-year quarterback Sam Howell (one career start) under center.
Confidence Meter: 9
NFC North: Detroit Lions
6 of 8
Odds: +110
As the hottest team to miss the 2022 postseason, the Detroit Lions won five of their last six games. While draft analysts can question the value of investing first-round picks in a running back and a linebacker, the Lions have significantly improved their roster this offseason.
Quarterback Jared Goff has a new big target with rookie tight end Sam LaPorta coming out of Iowa. Gibbs could be a healthier version of D'Andre Swift, who's missed 10 games in three seasons. The team let Jamaal Williams walk in free agency but signed David Montgomery to replace him.
In addition to Campbell, Detroit loaded up on defensive playmakers to bolster the secondary, adding C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and rookie Brian Branch via free agency and the draft.
If the Lions defense builds on its momentum from the previous campaign with its new pieces, the unit will balance a roster that featured a top-five scoring offense in 2022.
But why are the Lions favored over their division rivals?
The Minnesota Vikings won an abnormally high number of one-score games (11-0) during the 2022 regular season. That's not going to happen again, especially with their questionable defensive unit that may need inexperienced players like cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. and safety Lewis Cine to fill big roles.
After an 8-9 finish, the Green Bay Packers will likely take a step back with first-time full-time starting quarterback Jordan Love taking over for Aaron Rodgers.
The Chicago Bears may be the wild-card team in the NFC North. If quarterback Justin Fields makes a third-year leap with a stronger supporting cast that features wideout DJ Moore, right tackle Darnell Wright and tight end Robert Tonyan, Chicago may push for a playoff spot.
Overall, the Lions look like a viable contender in a weak division.
Confidence Meter: 4.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
7 of 8
Odds: +110
The NFC South may be the most unpredictable division because three of its teams will start new quarterbacks at the beginning of the season. Derek Carr will likely have the most impact among the new signal-callers, which explains why the Saints should be favored to come out on top of their division.
While with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders for nine seasons, Carr didn't play with a defensive unit that ranked higher than 14th in points or yards allowed. In 2022, the Saints defense finished ninth in scoring while giving up the fifth-fewest yards.
Carr can also make plays through the air, targeting wideouts Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. Rookie sixth-rounder A.T. Perry is a sleeper candidate who could post big receiving numbers if Thomas cannot stay healthy.
The league could suspend running back Alvin Kamara because of a case that stems from charges of conspiracy to commit battery and battery resulting in substantial bodily harm. In the event that he misses time, Jamaal Williams and rookie third-rounder Kendre Miller can fill his void.
However, we must consider that the Saints have a defensive-minded head coach in Dennis Allen, who's 15-38 between stints with the Raiders and Saints. So, New Orleans isn't a strong favorite.
The Carolina Panthers will start a rebuild with rookie quarterback Bryce Young, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed quarterback Baker Mayfield, who didn't hold his starting job in Carolina last year. Both teams could struggle in 2023.
Keep an eye on the Falcons. They selected running back Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick, and he fits into head coach Arthur Smith's run-heavy offensive system. With Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield, quarterback Desmond Ridder will be able to pick his spots, throwing downfield to tight end Kyle Pitts and wideout Drake London.
By the way, Atlanta also overhauled its defense with the addition of Jessie Bates III, Jeff Okudah, Calais Campbell, Kaden Elliss, David Onyemata, Bud Dupree and Clark Phillips III.
Confidence Meter: 5
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
8 of 8
Odds: -150
Despite the uncertainty at the quarterback position, the San Francisco 49ers get the benefit of the doubt in the NFC West thanks to head coach Kyle Shanahan's play-calling wizardry.
Remember, the 49ers started three quarterbacks through the course of the 2022 campaign and still finished four wins above the second-place Seattle Seahawks.
This offseason, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy underwent surgery on his torn UCL, which creates an opportunity for Sam Darnold or Trey Lance to start Week 1 of the upcoming campaign. Assuming Purdy eventually reclaims the starting job after leading the team to the NFC Championship Game, San Francisco should win consecutive division titles.
In the meantime, Darnold may start under center. He has the experience to keep the offense steady. With him at the helm, the Carolina Panthers almost pulled off an upset to win the NFC South last year.
Interestingly, people within the 49ers building told NFL Network's Ian Rapoport not to count out Lance. If the third-year signal-caller earns the lead role, his inexperience may cost San Francisco some games early in the 2023 campaign. He's played in just nine games since 2020.
So, who could knock off the 49ers?
Well, it won't be the Arizona Cardinals. They're in Year 1 of a rebuild with a new front office and coaching staff. Most importantly, quarterback Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn ACL.
Don't count on the Los Angeles Rams, either. They've lost that Super Bowl shine from two years ago. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and wideout Cooper Kupp will come back healthy, but other than Aaron Donald, the Rams have a young, inexperienced defense that will give up a lot of points.
Though the 49ers beat the Seahawks three times last season, Seattle will come back stronger with a trio of rookies who could contribute right away. Wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, running back Zach Charbonnet and cornerback Devon Witherspoon will help the Seahawks win more games in 2023.
If anyone poses a challenge to the 49ers in the NFC West, it's the Seahawks, though quarterback Geno Smith must show consistency with another high-performance season.
Confidence Meter: 9
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Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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