NFL Teams That Will Fall Out of the Playoff Picture in 2023

Believe it or not, the NFL playoff picture has dramatically changed in recent years. From 2020 to 2021, seven teams dropped out of postseason spots. The same number of clubs didn't make it back to the playoffs in 2022.

Guess what's going to happen in 2023? That's right, we're going to see a continuation of musical chairs among the top clubs in both conferences.

Sure, every team made offseason moves to improve, but how do those acquisitions match up to the competition across the league? We must also account for roster departures via free agency and trades, coaching changes and the injury history of marquee players, especially at the quarterback position.

Despite widespread hope from all 32 fanbases, we're going to highlight five teams that won't return to the playoffs after qualifying last year. With the clubs below, you'll notice concerns about new faces in key positions, unsustainable winning methods and concerning trends in production or injuries.

Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Nick Wass, File

Lamar Jackson

At first mention, the idea of leaving the Baltimore Ravens out of the playoff picture seems like NFL blasphemy.

The Ravens have clinched a postseason berth in four of the last five campaigns. Moreover, they have a former league MVP at quarterback in Lamar Jackson, and he has a revamped wide receiver group with the team's addition of Odell Beckham Jr., rookie first-rounder Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor.

With All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews coming off his third Pro Bowl year and wideout Rashod Bateman on the road to recovery, Jackson will play with his best pass-catching group in Baltimore.

That being said, let's peel back the concerning layers of the Ravens squad.

First and foremost, Jackson must adjust to a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken, who had success at Georgia, where they had superior talent to most programs in the nation. On the pro level, the Ravens' new play-caller isn't going to have that advantage with mostly even competition across the league.

In Monken's last NFL stint, he served as the Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator, and his unit ranked 22nd in scoring and yards. Head coach Kevin Stefanski replaced Freddie Kitchens' staff, including Monken, and led a playoff-bound Cleveland club to the playoffs with a moderately improved offense and a more efficient version of Baker Mayfield under center.

Sure, Jackson is a dynamic playmaker, but he may go through some rough patches in a new system after four years under Greg Roman. Unlike Monken, Roman fielded a top-12 scoring offense for multiple pro seasons before he arrived in Baltimore.

Secondly, if Jackson continues to miss a handful of games in a season, the Ravens could lose ground to teams like the New York Jets and Denver Broncos in a potential AFC wild-card race.

Lastly, Baltimore's defense could struggle to generate pocket pressure.

The Ravens have yet to re-sign Justin Houston, who led the team in sacks (9.5) in the previous campaign. The club lost defensive tackle Calais Campbell (5.5 sacks in 2022) to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency.

Baltimore needs David Ojabo to make an immediate impact after he tore his Achilles at Michigan's pro day last year. Also, Odafe Oweh must make a third-year leap, and Tyus Bowser has to bounce back from an injury-riddled 2022 campaign, or else, opposing quarterbacks will have ample time to throw downfield.

Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Jim Rassol, File

Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins fans will learn that progress isn't always a linear process that elevates a football team to new heights every year. Their team will take a small step back.

In 2022, head coach Mike McDaniel injected hope into the franchise, leading the Dolphins to their first playoff appearance since the 2016 campaign. He brought former San Francisco 49ers running backs Raheem Mostert (free agency) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (via trade) to Miami, and the team acquired All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs in a blockbuster trade. Miami also signed four-time Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead in free agency.

Last offseason, the Dolphins' key acquisitions significantly boosted their offense. They went from 22nd and 25th to 11th and sixth in scoring and total yards, respectively.

This year, Miami should field an improved defensive unit. The club acquired two-time Pro Bowl edge-rusher Bradley Chubb before the 2022 trade deadline and All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams in March. The Dolphins also hired a top-tier defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio.

So, what's the issue?

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa holds the keys to the Dolphins' playoff hopes, and he hasn't been able to avoid the injury bug. In three seasons, Tagovailoa has missed 14 games.

Tagovailoa admitted that he contemplated retirement after he suffered multiple concussions during the 2022 campaign. If the oft-injured signal-caller goes down with another head injury, the Dolphins would have to turn to either Skylar Thompson, who threw for 534 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions with a 57.1 percent completion rate in seven games (two starts) last season, or a career backup in Mike White.

The Dolphins have a playoff-ready roster, but without an upgrade at the backup quarterback position, they could lose some crucial games in a tight playoff race.

Minnesota Vikings

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Kirk Cousins

Sorry, Minnesota Vikings fans. They're going to come back down to earth after winning an otherworldly number of one-score games (11-0) during the 2022 regular season.

Minnesota's one-score game win streak came to an end with a 31-24 loss to the New York Giants in the NFC Wild Card round. We're going to see the Vikings on the wrong side of more close contests in 2023.

Minnesota isn't going to sustain that style of winning with 2022 division leaders, potential playoff contenders such as the Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints along with a surging Detroit Lions squad on its schedule.

The Vikings should score in flurries with four-time Pro Bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins going into his second year under offensive-minded head coach Kevin O'Connell.

Via the draft, Minnesota added 2021 Fred Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison to complement All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson. The Vikings' 2022 deadline trade for tight end T.J. Hockenson paid off for them; he put together his second Pro Bowl campaign last year. And for now, four-time Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook remains the lead running back despite offseason rumors about his uncertain future with the team.

In contrast to a loaded offense, the Vikings still have major question marks on defense.

Assuming the team eventually parts ways with edge-rusher Za'Darius Smith, who wants out of Minnesota, someone has to help Danielle Hunter rush the passer. Smith had 10 sacks last year. The Vikings signed Marcus Davenport, but he hasn't performed at the level of a former first-round pick, and the former New Orleans Saint had just a half-sack in 2022.

On the back end of the defense, cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. could patch up some holes in the slot or on the boundary, but Minnesota may have to rely on second-year cornerbacks Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans to cover other areas in the secondary. Booth and Evans have played 267 defensive snaps combined. The former has missed 11 games and underwent knee surgery back in November.

Minnesota needs second-year safety Lewis Cine to bounce back from a compound leg fracture that sidelined him for all but three games in 2022. Going into his age-34 term, Harrison Smith cannot cover all the voids in center field alone.

The Vikings defense will cost them in tight games, which is why they won't return to the playoffs in 2023. They haven't made back-to-back postseason appearances since 2008-09.

New York Giants

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Saquon Barkley

Last year, the New York Giants overachieved and made the playoffs.

The Giants finished the 2022 campaign with mediocre offensive (15th) and defensive (17th) units in terms of scoring. Daniel Jones only threw for 15 touchdowns and five interceptions with 708 yards and seven scores on the ground. Richie James was the only wide receiver on the roster who recorded more than 46 receptions.

Fortunately for Big Blue, running back Saquon Barkley didn't miss any games because of injury as he did in previous campaigns. With the team locked into the sixth seed, the coaching staff gave him a rest in the season finale against the Philadelphia Eagles.

This offseason, the Giants lost James to the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency. Though they acquired Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller from the Las Vegas Raiders and added wideouts Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt, anyone with high hopes for the offense must consider the injury history and status of the team's top offensive playmakers.

Between 2019 and 2021, Barkley missed 21 games. Wideouts Sterling Shepard and Wan'Dale Robinson are recovering from torn ACLs. Though Campbell played in every game with the Indianapolis Colts in 2022, he's only suited up for 32 outings in four seasons, mostly because of injuries. Since 2021, Waller has missed 14 contests with various injuries.

The Giants addressed primary defensive voids with the addition of linebacker Bobby Okereke and rookie first-round cornerback Deonte Banks. On the flip side, their offense has a shaky foundation because key playmakers could miss chunks of time during the season, which doesn't bode well for a quarterback who's had modest passing production in recent years.

A team that could struggle to score points with its best players on the sideline isn't a good bet to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Chris Godwin

Say what you want about Tom Brady's final season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but don't forget to mention that he led the league in pass completions (490) and attempts (733). At 45 years old, Brady carried the Buccaneers offense behind a banged-up offensive line that featured backup center Robert Hainsey, who filled in for injured Pro Bowler Ryan Jensen, and a revolving door at left guard.

Still, Brady led Tampa Bay to an NFC South title while playing in the league's worst division, though we shouldn't expect Baker Mayfield to do the same in different circumstances this year.

Mayfield will have two Pro Bowl wideouts, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, with a healthy offensive line, but the 28-year-old signal-caller doesn't have the resume or production that suggests he'll be able to match Brady's 4,694 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions from last year.

When Mayfield helped lead the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in 2020, he played with the No. 3 rushing offense. In that year, Mayfield ranked 17th in pass attempts.

Coming off a season in which they ranked last in rushing yards, the Buccaneers need more than a game manager at quarterback—even with a healthier offensive line. Though Mayfield has the offensive playmakers to push the ball downfield, he's bounced around the league over the past year, from the Browns to the Carolina Panthers and then to the Los Angeles Rams.

Mayfield had some bright moments with the Rams, including a game-winning touchdown drive against the Las Vegas Raiders, but he's going to face a division winner's schedule and play against more competitive NFC South rivals than Brady saw in 2022.

This offseason, the New Orleans Saints and Panthers upgraded at quarterback with the additions of Derek Carr and Bryce Young, respectively. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons selected arguably the best skill position player in the 2023 draft, running back Bijan Robinson.

In 2023, the Buccaneers won't win the division with an 8-9 record, and their No. 2 passing attack will regress with Mayfield taking over for Brady.

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Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.