Ranking Each Division Following the 2023 NFL Draft
The NFL draft, free agency and the trade market can change the trajectory of division races. Every year, we see contenders, borderline playoff teams and clubs in rebuild mode make splashy moves.
This offseason, the New York Jets made the biggest headlines, acquiring quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers. With the addition of a four-time league MVP, Gang Green surged in our post-draft power rankings, claiming the ninth spot after a 7-10 season.
In the big picture, the AFC East has become a much stronger division over the past week, but where does it rank against the other seven across the league?
We kept track of the most notable acquisitions to assess the quality of each division and rank all eight from worst to best.
Along with the offseason moves, our rankings also account for trends that date back to the previous few seasons. So, a team's recent playoff and Super Bowl appearances had a significant impact when splitting hairs between divisions.
8. AFC South
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This year, the AFC South could feature three quarterbacks from the 2023 draft class trying to topple the Jacksonville Jaguars for a chance to host a playoff game.
Last season, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence made a second-year leap under head coach Doug Pederson. Lawrence earned a Pro Bowl nod and helped lead Jacksonville to the postseason for the first time since the 2017 campaign.
The Jaguars have come a long way since their collapse in the 2017 AFC Championship Game as their rivals try to establish an identity or a culture.
The Tennessee Titans took a step back in the previous season, falling below .500 for the first time since 2015. Head coach Mike Vrabel may have a brewing quarterback controversy between Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis, whom the team traded up for in the second round (33rd overall pick).
If the Titans continue on a decline or Levis impresses the coaching staff through the preseason, Tennessee could contemplate a major shakeup under center. Keep in mind that the club is in transition under general manager Ran Carthon.
The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans have similar situations with new head coaches and rookie quarterbacks who went top four in this year's draft. In the best-case scenario, we'll see budding rivalries in a division with young signal-callers.
With the exception of the Jaguars, the AFC South will likely go through a lot of growing pains in 2023 because of inexperience at quarterback and changes within team coaching ranks.
7. NFC North
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The NFC North projects as the second-weakest group because two of its teams that have accounted for 11 of the last 12 division titles could take a step back in the standings.
The Minnesota Vikings will likely win fewer games after going 11-0 in one-possession contests for the 2022 regular season. They won 13 games, but their nail-biting winning fashion isn't sustainable in the long term.
Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers will try to figure out how to win with a new starting quarterback. Jordan Love will take over for Aaron Rodgers, whom the team traded to the New York Jets. Love has only thrown 83 regular-season passes in 10 games (one start).
With the Vikings likely to regress and the Packers headed into the post-Aaron Rodgers era, the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears can make a move up the division hierarchy, but it's hard to trust either team.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields must make strides in his third year, or the team may take a look at the 2024 rookie quarterback class. Up to this point, he's completed just 59.7 percent of his passes.
On the flip side, the Bears have upgraded Fields' supporting cast with wideout DJ Moore, tight end Robert Tonyan and rookie first-round right tackle Darnell Wright, but that may not be enough to make a playoff run.
As for the Lions, they haven't won a division title since 1993, and they've missed the playoffs for six consecutive seasons.
In the 2023 draft, the Lions added more firepower to their fifth-ranked scoring offense from the previous term, selecting running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta in the first and second rounds, respectively. They've also tightened up their defense, adding linebacker Jack Campbell, safety Brian Branch, cornerback Cameron Sutton and versatile defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
The NFC North will be a mediocre division if the Lions don't take the next step in their third year under head coach Dan Campbell.
6. NFC South
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None of the projected starting quarterbacks in the NFC South opened the 2022 season with their respective current teams. This is easily the hardest division to project because of those changes.
Having said that, the entire NFC South seems like it is on the rise, and we cannot say the same for the NFC North with Green Bay Packers transitioning from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love and the Minnesota Vikings' unsustainable winning ways.
The New Orleans Saints signed quarterback Derek Carr, who can perform at a high level for stretches. In nine years with the Las Vegas Raiders, he's thrown for 217 touchdowns and 99 interceptions with a 64.6 percent completion rate. Just two years ago, Carr helped lead the Silver and Black to the playoffs.
Don't sleep on Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. In 2020, he helped lead the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs with the third-ranked rushing offense and a defense that finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring and yards allowed.
In Tampa Bay, Mayfield won't play with a complementary high-level ground attack, but he will have two Pro Bowl receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and a defense that ranked 13th in scoring and ninth in yards allowed last season.
The Carolina Panthers handpicked the new face of their franchise with the No. 1 overall selection. Quarterback Bryce Young brings new hope to the organization after its five consecutive losing seasons.
The Atlanta Falcons are the wild-card team. After back-to-back 7-10 campaigns, head coach Arthur Smith may face some pressure on the hot seat if Atlanta doesn't win more games. Fortunately for him, he has a new dynamic playmaker in rookie running back Bijan Robinson, who could become the focal point of his offense, which would take a lot of pressure off second-year signal-caller Desmond Ridder.
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5. NFC West
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Unlike the AFC South, NFC North and NFC South, the NFC West has a dominant squad, which elevates the group to fifth in the division rankings.
Despite question marks around the San Francisco 49ers' quarterback situation, head coach Kyle Shanahan has earned the benefit of the doubt. Last year, he inserted Brock Purdy into the starting lineup to replace injured quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and advanced to the NFC Championship Game, an outing in which Purdy suffered a torn UCL.
Moreover, Shanahan has led San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game or a Super Bowl in three of the last four years. Whether it's Purdy, Lance or Sam Darnold under center, Shanahan will make the situation work for the 49ers.
The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams are chasing the 49ers.
Seattle will remain in the playoff picture if 2022 Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith proves that the previous campaign wasn't just a fluky flash in the pan. He could see a bump in passing production with rookie first-round wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the fold. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet will balance the offense on the ground. Everyone should buy more stock in this Seattle squad.
The Rams will look to rebound from an abysmal 5-12 season that quickly went off the rails in part because of injuries. Assuming quarterback Matthew Stafford, wideout Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald can stay healthy, Los Angeles should bounce back in 2023.
The Arizona Cardinals hurt the NFC West in these rankings. With a new regime, they're going into the 2023 term without quarterback Kyler Murray (torn ACL) on the field, and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins' future with the team remains uncertain, though he may actually stay in the desert.
4. NFC East
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In 2022, the Philadelphia Eagles came out of the NFC East and represented the conference in Super Bowl LVII. Despite the loss of defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon and multiple players on both sides of the ball, they have a solid core intact with Jalen Hurts under center.
As a playoff contender with a Super Bowl window, the Eagles elevate the NFC East in the rankings. The division gets a bump over the NFC West because of the competition behind Philadelphia.
The Dallas Cowboys have won 12 games in back-to-back years. For now, they've jettisoned Ezekiel Elliott, but assuming Pro Bowl running back Tony Pollard fully recovers from a fractured fibula, the club should field a viable ground attack.
Quarterback Dak Prescott won't be phased much by the team's decision to fire Kellen Moore or the loss of tight end Dalton Schultz. He'll rack up passing numbers with wideouts CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks.
While the Eagles and Cowboys project as playoff teams, the New York Giants can make it back to the postseason if their key playmakers stay on the field.
In the recent past, Saquon Barkley has battled injuries. Wideouts Sterling Shepard and Wan'Dale Robinson tore their ACLs last year. Newly acquired tight end Darren Waller has missed 14 games over the previous two seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders.
If quarterback Daniel Jones has a couple of those guys on the field for a majority of the season, he'll show more improvement in his second year under head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka.
According to ESPN's John Keim, the Washington Commanders have a lot of confidence in second-year quarterback Sam Howell. Regardless of the signal-caller's performances, the Commanders defense will even the playing field with opponents. Washington's defensive unit allowed the third-fewest yards and ranked seventh in scoring last season, and then they added ball-hawking cornerback Emmanuel Forbes in the 2023 draft.
Unlike the NFC West, the NFC East doesn't have a bottom-feeding team that will likely finish top five in the 2024 draft order.
3. AFC West
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The AFC West gets a top-three spot with the reigning champions in the division.
The Kansas City Chiefs will remain atop the NFL hierarchy with two-time Super Bowl-winning head coach Andy Reid and two-time league MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes in a successful partnership.
While we thought the AFC West would look a lot stronger than it did last year, the Chiefs will face tougher competition with the Denver Broncos striking a deal with the New Orleans Saints to acquire Super Bowl-winning head coach Sean Payton. If Payton can get the best out of Russell Wilson, the Chiefs' dominance over the Broncos could end in the upcoming season.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers will try to maximize quarterback Justin Herbert's talent with the addition of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who's led three top-six scoring offensive units in four years with the Dallas Cowboys. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers have a fierce pass-rushing trio with four-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa, three-time All-Pro Khalil Mack and rookie second-rounder Tuli Tuipulotu, who led the FBS in sacks (13.5) last year.
Compared to the outlook of the other three AFC West teams, the Las Vegas Raiders are a step behind.
Vegas parted ways with Derek Carr and signed oft-injured quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to replace him. The club also traded tight end Darren Waller to the New York Giants. Lastly, the Raiders defense remains a work in progress with a glaring void at linebacker after allowing Pro Bowler Denzel Perryman to walk in free agency and lingering question marks at cornerback and safety.
If Garoppolo stays healthy, the Raiders may be able to score in bunches with star wide receiver Davante Adams, slot wideouts Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow, rookie tight end Michael Mayer and running back Josh Jacobs, but their defense will cost them games.
The Raiders' shaky 2023 outlook kept the AFC West out of the top two spots.
2. AFC East
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The AFC East welcomed a four-time league MVP in Aaron Rodgers. With him, the New York Jets are in a position to push for a deep playoff run and perhaps an appearance in Super Bowl LVIII, which significantly strengthens the division.
Though Rodgers came up short on a playoff bid with the Green Bay Packers last season, he's going to play on arguably a better overall squad in New York. The Jets finished with the fourth-ranked defense in points and yards allowed last season, and their roster features the reigning Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Rodgers is the missing piece to the Jets' playoff roster, though he'll go through top-tier competition within the AFC East.
The Buffalo Bills have won three consecutive division titles with rising star quarterback Josh Allen at the helm. Buffalo has a wide-open Super Bowl window with its young signal-caller throwing to All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and rookie first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid along with a stout defense that's allowed the fewest or second-fewest points in three of the previous four campaigns.
In his first year as the Miami Dolphins head coach, Mike McDaniel led the club to the playoffs despite losing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for four games because of injury. The Dolphins bolstered their playoff roster, acquiring three-time All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who will shore up a pass defense that allowed the sixth-most yards in 2022.
The New England Patriots project as the bottom team in the division, but they finished with an 8-9 record last season and nearly made the playoffs. The Patriots replaced offensive play-caller Matt Patricia (a former defensive coordinator) with Bill O'Brien, who's had success in New England (2011) and with the Houston Texans as an offensive play-caller. Mac Jones could have a strong third year after a frustrating campaign under Patricia.
The AFC East doesn't have a weak link, which is why it ranks second among the league's divisions.
1. AFC North
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Following the 2023 NFL draft, the AFC North has the best division.
First and foremost, all four squads have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Secondly, it's a top-heavy division with two playoff-caliber squads that can potentially reach the Super Bowl. Lastly, the AFC North clubs that missed the playoffs last year made some splashy moves that can close the gap between the contenders and pretenders.
The Cincinnati Bengals should have a long-lasting Super Bowl window with 26-year-old quarterback Joe Burrow under center. He's helped lead the team to consecutive AFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl.
This year, the Baltimore Ravens may prevent the Bengals from winning their third consecutive AFC North title. They signed quarterback Lamar Jackson to an extension, and he has a new-look offense with the addition of wideouts Odell Beckham Jr., rookie first-rounder Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor under incoming offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Beckham and Flowers can provide some explosive plays on offense in 2023.
The AFC North may have more than two teams vying for the title, though.
The Cleveland Browns should see a better version of Deshaun Watson on the field. In 2022, he knocked off some rust after sitting out the entire 2021 campaign with the Houston Texans following his trade request and legal ramifications that stemmed from civil lawsuits filed by 26 women who accused him of sexual assault and misconduct. Last season, he served an 11-game suspension for violating the league's personal-conduct policy in connection with those cases.
Cleveland may see an uptick in its defensive production with Jim Schwartz calling the plays. In four out of five years with the Philadelphia Eagles (2016-2020), his units ranked 13th or better in yards or points allowed. Last year, the Browns' 20th-ranked scoring defense let them down at times, which contributed to a disappointing 7-10 season.
In this year's draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers traded up for left tackle Broderick Jones, who will protect second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. With strong pass protection, the young signal-caller should have more time to find his top targets in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth and rookie tight end Darnell Washington in the aerial attack.
On top of that, the Steelers defense returned to its stout ways in 2022, ranking 10th in points allowed. With the addition of cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and defensive tackle Keeanu Benton via the draft and a healthy T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh could slow down the Bengals' and Ravens' offenses.
Top to bottom, AFC North games will be heavyweight bouts—the competition within this division is second to none.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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