Projecting NFL Contracts for Players Whose 5th-Year Option Was Accepted or Declined
The NFL offseason is a series of difficult decisions for teams—decisions that begin almost as soon as the Super Bowl ends.
Which veteran players will be released in an effort to clear cap space?
Which players could be traded to add draft capital or bolster the roster?
What free agents will be signed to improve the squad?
Which youngsters will be the targets on draft weekend?
Just after the draft, there's another decision to be made by every team that had a first-round selection three years prior—whether to pick up the fifth-year option on players entering their fourth season. It means a major bump in pay in that fifth campaign. But it also affords teams an extra year of control ahead of free agency.
For some players, it's a no-brainer—a placeholder ahead of a massive extension. For others it's an added year to prove they are indeed worthy of a big second contract. And sometimes, whether because of injury or performance, teams elect to pass, sending players into a contract year.
Of the 28 players eligible for a fifth-year option in 2023, just 12 had theirs picked up (Jordan Love of the Packers was given a one-year contract extension). That dozen players (and the others who either weren't eligible or weren't picked up) fall across every category just mentioned. Some will soon move on to to new teams. Others face an uncertain future. And at least one could become the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Here's a look at some of the bigger and more interesting names from that 2020 class, why they were (or were not) afforded a fifth-year, and what their next contract could eventually look like.
Some are quite…lucrative.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
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If there is one quarterback you would think deserves a staggering, Patrick Mahomes-esque megadeal, it's Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.
In three years in Cincinnati, Burrow has led the Bengals to back-to-back AFC Championship Games and a berth in Super Bowl LVI. He's a southern Ohio native who has become involved in a number of charitable causes in the area. There's absolutely zero reason Burrow shouldn't be the face of the franchise for the next decade.
We're talking a 10-year deal. Over $500 million. The most guaranteed money in NFL history.
But there's a problem: Bengals owner Mike Brown.
He is notorious for being, um, frugal. In terms of net worth, Brown is the poorest individual owner in the NFL. And in January, Brown was already hemming and hawing about the financial impact of Burrow's extension.
Brown said on the team's radio broadcast (h/t ESPN's Ben Baby):
"He's going to have a long career. We certainly want it to be here. I think his window will extend over his whole career. But there is the fact that when you don't have to pay the quarterback some extraordinary amount, that leaves room to pay other players more and, therefore, you can keep more players that are good players."
One of the financial realities of NFL contracts is that teams need to keep every single guaranteed dollar for every contract for every player in escrow. For some teams, that's no big deal. For small-market, low-revenue clubs like the Bengals, it's another matter.
Burrow is going to get paid a ton of money. And he's given no indication that he has any intentions of wanting to completely reset the QB market. He even seems like the type of player who might take a tad less if it means keeping the band together.
But the size of this deal will probably have more to do with the financial realities in the Queen City than loyalty of player to team.
Projected Contract (2023): Five years, $270 million, $180 million guaranteed
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
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Might as well get the other no-brainer quarterback extension out of the way.
Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers hasn't had the team success that Burrow has, but he led the Bolts to the postseason last year and threw for over 5,000 yards the season before that. While speaking to reporters in April, Herbert said he's in no rush to see the deal done—but he's confident it will be:
"I'm kind of left out of those negotiations, and I think my job now, my focus is to be the best quarterback that I can be and to rehab my shoulder. I've got complete faith in the Chargers organization and the front office. They've done such a great job of taking care of us as players, and I've loved to be a part of this team, being a part of this organization, and it's kind of beyond my control of as to what happens now. I'm just doing everything I can that I can control."
Quite a few similarities exist between Burrow's situation and Herbert's. Chargers owner Dean Spanos is wealthier than Mike Brown, but he has developed the same reputation for penny-pinching in San Diego. Also, while the Chargers play in a massive media market, they rank in the bottom half of the league in revenue.
However, Spanos has cracked the checkbook more willingly since moving to Los Angeles in 2017. There's no doubt that Herbert is a legit high-end NFL starter and the face of the franchise. And with the Rams in the opening stages of a ground-up rebuild, the Chargers have an opportunity to become "the" NFL team in Los Angeles.
Herbert's deal won't redefine the market. But the addition of a sixth year could push the contract north of $300 million and $200 million in guarantees.
Projected Contract (2023): Six years, $321 million, $200 million guaranteed
Chase Young, Edge, Washington Commanders
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It wasn't supposed to be like this for Chase Young.
When the Washington Commanders drafted the edge-rusher second overall in 2020, he was considered a generational prospect. He was every bit as good as Joey Bosa or Nick Bosa. Maybe better. And in his first season, the team appeared to be right—Young logged 44 tackles, 7.5 sacks and was named Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Then the bottom fell out.
Young got off to a woeful start in 2021, tallying just 1.5 sacks in nine games before a serious knee injury ended his season. Last year, he played in just three games and didn't manage a single sack.
That decline in production led Washington to pass on Young's fifth-year option, but Commanders head coach Ron Rivera told reporters he remains hopeful that Young can turn around his career:
"Well, just for the most part it was the football decision that we made. And for the most part, it's one of those things that we want to take care of our own. We want to go out and we want 'em to play well. And if that's what happens, then we have a really good problem to have and it's something that we'll have to work through once we know where everything is."
There has been trade speculation circulating about Young for some time. But at this point, the return Washington would get probably wouldn't be much better than the compensatory pick it would get if he leaves in 2024 anyway.
Unless a team comes along with an overwhelming offer, that makes Washington's decision an easy one: Play things out. If Young can return to form, he'd be a prime franchise tag candidate in 2024. If he struggles again, let him sign a short-term "prove-it" deal elsewhere.
We'll go the optimistic route here and assume Young plays his way into the tag next season.
Projected Contract (2024): One year, $20.1 million (franchise tag)
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Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
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There isn't a more intriguing player on this list than Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
There were times last year when Tagovailoa appeared to be headed toward superstardom. But there were also durability concerns, including multiple concussions.
However, those injuries didn't stop the team from picking up Tagovailoa's fifth-year option, and head coach Mike McDaniel told reporters that it was important for Miami to show Tagovailoa it is confident in its his long-term prospects.
"I think it's important to recognize that we have a congruence of interest by the Dolphins and the player—Tua—that both parties really want him to play at a very high level for a long time for the Miami Dolphins," McDaniel said.
General manager Chris Grier went even further, stating that Tagovailoa's previous injuries won't preclude the team from working on a long-term deal.
"It's not something that is going to make us afraid to do something long term with him," Grier said. "The one thing he's had, he's been banged up, but he always comes back and bounces back and plays hard and performs; so excited for his future."
However, the reality is that before the Dolphins are going to commit north of $45 million per season to Tagovailoa, they'll need more assurances that he can stay on the field than they received in 2022.
We've already seen what Tagovailoa can do in McDaniel's offense with weapons such as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal. If he can repeat that success and lead Miami to the postseason, a huge payday will be coming.
But even then, the durability issues are likely going to cost Tagovailoa some cash.
Projected Contract (2024): Four years, $190 million, $100.5 million guaranteed
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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The justification for paying Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson isn't especially hard to identify. Since entering the NFL in 2020, Jefferson has more receiving yards than any wideout in the game. In fact, he has more receiving yards over his first three seasons than any player at the position in the history of the NFL.
While speaking to reporters, Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made it clear that if he doesn't lock up Jefferson long term, he needs to find a new job.
"When you have guys like that in your building," Adofo-Mensah said, "[you] try everything you can to not let them out. I don't want to be the Vikings GM without this guy on our team."
However, potential sticking points exist regarding a new deal for Jefferson.
The first is the sheer size of an extension given Minnesota's seemingly annually precarious position relative to the cap in recent years. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have less cap space than the Vikings. Minnesota could back-load an extension to lessen the short-term impact, but it would take a five- or six-year deal to really make that work.
Right now, Tyreek Hill leads all wide receivers with an average annual salary of $30 million. Jefferson is (rightly) going to want more. Possibly significantly more.
There's also the matter of Kirk Cousins' future in Minnesota. The 34-year-old is entering the last year of his contract. If he's brought back, it's going to cost at least $40 million per season. If he isn't, the Vikings will have to figure out a future under center—and sell their star wideout on it.
Provided that Cousins plays at the same level in 2023 as he has in recent years, the Vikings will (to some fans' chagrin) bring back the veteran. And that point, the next course of action will be giving Jefferson the biggest contract any NFL wideout has ever seen.
And then there's going to be a lot of cap maneuvering to be done.
Projected Contract (2024): Six years, $190 million, $97.5 million guaranteed
Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals
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Isaiah Simmons is maybe the hardest player in this piece to get a bead on—in part because the Arizona Cardinals have never really been able to get a bead on him.
This dates back to the 2020 draft. There were no knocks against Simmons' talent or athleticism that year—the 6'4", 238-pounder had been a difference-maker at Clemson who played everywhere from linebacker to safety to the slot.
But that has been the problem in Arizona. As coaching staffs and defensive coordinators have changed, the Cardinals have continually switched his role. He spent the first three seasons of his career pingponging from one spot to another—and never got comfortable anywhere.
There have been flashes—Simmons amassed 99 total tackles playing a "Star" slot defender role last year and had 105 total tackles playing primarily inside linebacker the season before.
Even though the team passed on his fifth-year option, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon told reporters he's excited to work with Simmons in 2023:
"I had a really good talk with Isaiah. Obviously, talked to Isaiah a lot. Really comfortable with where we're at with him. He's very comfortable with it, and the option or whatever, it really doesn't change -- that's why I love where, when I say, I'm really comfortable where we're at, comfortable where he's at, is it doesn't change how he goes about what he's doing, and he knows he has to play well for us and for him, and that's like everybody."
The problem is that 2023 will probably bring more change—with the Cardinals tinkering with Zaven Collins as an edge-rusher, Simmons is likely going to play more inside linebacker. Once again, he just can't get comfortable.
That may be a blessing in disguise. Because if four years as a pingpong ball are any indication, the best thing for Simmons is a change in scenery and a coaching staff that actually knows how to use him.
Projected Contract: Three years, $19.5 million, $10 million guaranteed (free agency)
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
7 of 10
We have already mentioned that Justin Jefferson will reset the wide receiver market. CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys may not quite get the same bonanza, but he isn't going to be hurting for rent money.
Jerry Jeudy's future with the Denver Broncos is much less certain.
On some level, it was a little surprising that Denver picked up his fifth-year option at all. The 15th pick in 2020 had been the subject of trade rumors for some time, and while there have been flashes three seasons into his career, Jeudy has yet to record a 1,000-yard campaign.
While speaking to the Denver Gazette's Chris Tomasson, former Broncos great Mark Jackson said he believes the team made a wise move in paying Jeudy $13 million in 2024:
"He came on late last year with some pretty good stats, so I think he kind of showed what they wanted to see, an indication that he has first-round draft and number-one receiver potential. So I think it's a good idea. ... I'm not sure if he's ever going to be a 1,500-yard or a 1,800-yard receiver, but he has that potential. He has that breakaway speed. But there are only so many balls to go around."
The thing is, Jackson hit on an important point. Even if Jeudy becomes a very good NFL receiver, it's far from certain he'll ever be a great one. Jeudy has been inconsistent at times, and he has missed nine games over the past two seasons.
If Jeudy has the best year of his career in 2023 and eclipses 1,000 yards, then all that really does is make that $13 million salary in 2024 look more reasonable. If the 24-year-old can post back-to-back big years and finally live up to his first-round status, then in 2025 it will be time to talk about a big extension.
But given Jeudy's career to date, the more likely outcome is some ups and downs—and either the franchise tag or free agency in 2025.
With the tag north of $20 million by then, the latter it is.
Projected Contract (2025): Three years, $47.5 million, $24 million guaranteed (free agency)
Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Cleveland Browns
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Some offensive tackles from the class of 2020 will get paid. Tristan Wirfs of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played at a Pro Bowl level from the moment he stepped on an NFL field, playing a major role in Tampa's Super Bowl run that year. New York's Andrew Thomas got off to a rocky start, but he has developed into the linchpin of a Giants line that hopes to pave the way back to the playoffs in 2023.
Then there's Jedrick Wills Jr. of the Cleveland Browns.
Wills hasn't been terrible by any stretch. But he has arguably been the weakest link on one of the NFL's best offensive lines. Per Pro Football Focus, last year Wills surrendered six sacks and committed 10 penalties. His sacks allowed have increased in all three pro seasons.
However, at the NFL owners' meetings in Arizona, Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski told reporters he has seen steady maturation and improvement from Wills:
"In the moment, in the season, you felt it because he was healthy and was playing well. But as you go back and watch a lot of the tape over and over, he's doing a nice job in the run game and the pass game. He's winning his one-on-one matchups. Never perfect because it's hard to be perfect as a left tackle in this game. But he played well. I really think if he stays healthy, the trajectory continues to ascend."
This is a financial decision for the Browns. Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed contract puts a massive strain on Cleveland's cap space every season. Having Wills on the books for over $14 million in 2024 takes away that much more wiggle room for GM Andrew Berry.
That makes this a relatively easy decision. Provided that Wills doesn't completely fall apart in 2023, he'll be signed to a long-term extension in 2024 that affords the team more cap flexibility.
Projected Contract (2024): Five years, $88 million, $48 million guaranteed
Jordyn Brooks, LB, Seattle Seahawks
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Jordyn Brooks is 2023's poster guy for how quickly things can change in the NFL.
At this time a year ago, he was coming off a league-leading 109 solo tackles. He had played so well in his second NFL season that the Seattle Seahawks parted ways with longtime middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. Brooks was the future in the middle of the defense. He was going to be a leader. And for much of 2022, he was, eclipsing 150 total tackles for the second year in a row.
And then, in a Week 17 win over the New York Jets, Brooks tore his ACL—and everything changed.
Now, even though the team passed on Brooks' option, head coach Pete Carroll told reporters last week that the 25-year-old remains a big part of Seattle's long-term plans.
"He's got a long, long future for us," Carroll said. "We love the way he plays and what he brings and all of that. We've got to orchestrate the way we move forward. The decision we made now, this is not an indication of our future. We expect Jordyn to be with us for a long time."
But let's be perfectly clear. Had Brooks not gotten hurt, his option would have been picked up. Had Brooks not gotten hurt, Seattle probably wouldn't have re-signed Wagner in March. And now a future that once looked bright is incredibly cloudy.
Given how late Brooks got hurt. There's no telling when he might be able to return to the field. Or when he'll be remotely close to 100 percent. There won't be a long-term extension next spring. With the franchise tag for linebackers north of $20 million, that's improbable as well.
If Brooks' rehab drags into the 2023 season, he's going to be looking at short-term "prove it" deals a year from now.
And after the Seahawks passed on his option, Brooks could hardly be blamed if he wants to continue his career elsewhere.
Projected Contract (2024): Two years, $18.5 million, $9 million guaranteed (free agency)
A.J. Terrell, CB, Atlanta Falcons
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The Atlanta Falcons were one of the league's busiest teams in free agency this year, but on the defensive side, the best decision the franchise made may well have been securing the services of a player it already has.
A.J. Terrell didn't pile up impact plays last year—as a matter of fact, Terrell didn't intercept a pass. But the 16th overall pick has become not only arguably the team's best defender but also one of the best cornerbacks in the entire NFL.
Granted, Terrell posted a passer rating against of 102 last year. But that number doesn't tell the whole story—admittedly, he started slowly and routinely faced opposing teams' No. 1 receivers. The year before, his passer rating against was a stellar 61.0.
For Dallas Robinson of Pro Football Network, there's zero question that Terrell deserves to be one of the highest-paid players in the game at his position:
"Atlanta has remade its defense this offseason by signing Jessie Bates, Calais Campbell, and David Onyemata, among others, but Terrell remains the best player on coordinator Ryan Nielsen's unit.
"Terrell ranked first among NFL corners in yards allowed per reception (6.9) as recently as 2021, when he gave up just 200 total yards on the season. As the only first-round CB in his draft class to have his option exercised, Terrell is positioned for a significant payday, and it shouldn't be surprising if he becomes the league's highest-paid corner."
Falcons GM Terry Fontenot has already alluded to a Terrell extension, and it's less a matter of "if" than "when."
Projected Contract (2023): Four years, $80.5 million, $43 million guaranteed
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