Big-Name MLB Players Putting Themselves at Risk of Losing Starting Roles
It's still early in the 2023 Major League Baseball, but not so early that slow starters around the league shouldn't be worried about their jobs.
Yes, this even goes for players with big names.
We've highlighted nine players whose early struggles could potentially put their starting roles in jeopardy. The list is a mix of established veterans and up-and-coming youngsters, and it covers what's going wrong for them and how their teams might fix the problems their struggles have created.
Could we have included guys like José Abreu and Jean Segura? Sure, but to think their jobs are on thin ice would be a leap too far. Both are on freshly signed multi-year deals and it's not like the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins have better options at their positions.
We have six hitters and three starting pitchers, who we'll cover in alphabetical order.
1B/DH Brandon Belt, Toronto Blue Jays
1 of 9
Started: 18 of 31 G
Stats: 18 G, 68 PA, 1 HR, 0 SB, .161 AVG. .235 OBP, .274 SLG
What's the Problem?
Power from the left side was hard to come by for the Blue Jays in 2022, so signing Brandon Belt to a one-year, $9.3 million deal made sense as a low-risk, high-reward maneuver.
Even though Oracle Park never did his power any favors, the 35-year-old had some good years with the San Francisco Giants as he racked up a 123 OPS+ from 2011 to 2022. He even dabbled in elite hitting in 2020 and 2021, across which he had a 165 OPS+.
But to say that Belt has been a disaster in Toronto would be understating it. Of particular concern is his 44.1 strikeout percentage. A mark like that is hideous under any circumstances, and that much more so when the player in question has taken 60 of his 68 plate appearances with the platoon advantage.
What's the Solution?
The Jays don't necessarily have to cut Belt, but they have the depth to basically knock him down to pinch-hitting duty.
George Springer, who's also started slow, might benefit from more at-bats at designated hitter, with Whit Merrifield covering in right field and Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio platooning at second base.
1B Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
2 of 9
Started: 24 of 32 G
Stats: 27 G, 101 PA, 3 HR, 0 SB, .157 AVG, .297 OBP, .301 SLG
What's the Problem?
So confident were the Red Sox that Triston Casas was ready to take over at first base in 2023 that they cut Eric Hosmer months before spring training.
It's hard to blame them even in retrospect. Casas checked in at No. 25 in our initial prospect rankings for 2023. It helped that he had capped his 2022 season with a long home run off Gerrit Cole and other promising moments in the majors.
Cut to now, though, and the 23-year-old's .157 average is the lowest in the American League. That his walk rate and exit velocity look good are silver linings, but his swing plane has just been off. Whereas the league is averaging 314 feet on fly balls, he's at 306.
What's the Solution?
Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic recently wrote about how the Red Sox want to be patient with Casas, but their patience is clearly waning. He's started just one of their last four games.
If the Sox eventually do demote Casas down to Triple-A Pawtucket, Justin Turner could keep covering first base while the youngster works on his swing.
RF Oscar Gonzalez, Cleveland Guardians
3 of 9
Started: 18 of 31 G
Stats: 24 G, 72 PA, 1 HR, 0 SB, .186 AVG, .208 OBP, .286 SLG
What's the Problem?
We'll hear arguments that Oscar Gonzalez isn't a big-name player but, hey, you can't deny that the 25-year-old made a name for himself last year.
And not just as the guy with the Spongebob walk-up music. He became a key offensive weapon for the Guardians in hitting to a 124 OPS+ in 91 regular season games, and even more so as he racked up clutch hits in the playoffs at a historic rate.
But in addition to not walking basically at all—he's drawn only two free passes—Gonzalez just isn't hitting enough either. He's been especially overmatched against fastballs, versus which he's 2-for-28 with no extra-base hits.
What's the Solution?
Similar to Casas, the best thing for Gonzalez would be a hopefully quick trip down to Triple-A Columbus to find the swing with which he hit .311 against fastballs last season.
In the interim, the Guardians could stick with Will Brennan in right field or perhaps give Richie Palacios another shot. He's with Columbus now and hitting .286 with a .395 OBP.
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RHP Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
4 of 9
Started: 6 of 31 G
Stats: 6 GS, 31.2 IP, 29 H (8 HR), 34 K, 21 BB, 5.97 ERA
What's the Problem?
Even if Michael Kopech has yet to really break through as a proper star, there's no denying his name recognition.
The 27-year-old was a top 100 prospect annually between 2017 and 2021 and he spent a good chunk of last season with an ERA in the 1.00s. Anyone who follows Rob "Pitching Ninja" Friedman will also know Kopech's stuff to be eminently GIF-able.
Yet Kopech had been skidding even before he got off to a walk- and home run-filled start to this season. All told, his last 20 outings dating back to June 19, 2022 have yielded a 5.16 ERA with 54 walks against only 88 strikeouts in 99.1 innings.
What's the Solution?
Kopech is far from the only disappointment in the White Sox rotation, to be sure, but he at least presents the easiest solution: a move to the bullpen.
On account of the unit's 6.44 ERA, that's where help is badly needed. And as seen in his 13.0 strikeouts-per-nine rate when he's pitched in relief, Kopech's stuff has unsurprisingly played up when he's come out of the pen in the past.
LHP Steven Matz, St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 9
Started: 6 of 31 G
Stats: 6 GS, 31.0 IP, 38 H (6 HR), 31 K, 15 BB, 6.39 ERA
What's the Problem?
It might not have been met with universal acclaim, but the Cardinals signing Steven Matz to a four-year, $44 million contract in Nov. 2021 looked like a good deal at the time.
He had done just fine with a pitch-to-contact style for the Blue Jays in 2021, and there was every reason to think he could do even better with such a style in St. Louis. The Cardinals defense had, after all, basically lapped the field in Outs Above Average in '21.
Not even two years later, "oof" is the most appropriate word to describe how things have gone. Matz's performance this year has raised his ERA as a Cardinal to 5.70 over 79 innings.
What's the Solution?
With veteran ace Adam Wainwright on the comeback trail from a strained groin, somebody will have to move to make room for him in St. Louis' rotation. Matz is the easy choice.
After that, the Cardinals could try the 31-year-old in a bullpen that could use another left-hander. For what it's worth, he allowed just one run in 5.1 innings of relief work at the end of last season.
DH Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta
6 of 9
Started: 18 of 31 G
Stats: 20 G, 77 PA, 4 HR, 0 SB, .147 AVG, .247 OBP, .338 SLG
What's the Problem?
Marcell Ozuna dominated the shortened 2020 season so thoroughly that it never felt like Atlanta had any choice but to re-sign him in free agency that winter. They ultimately did in the form of a four-year, $65 million contract.
As for how things are going now, well, it's not a great sign when a guy is getting booed even in his home ballpark:
To accuse Atlanta fans of being overly harsh on the 32-year-old Ozuna would be disingenuous. This is the third year in a row that he just hasn't hit the ball like he did in 2020, resulting in a well-below-average 81 OPS+ during the life of his contract.
What's the Solution?
It's notable that Ozuna has gone 4-for-9 with a pair of home runs in his last two starts after sitting out four straight games, but it'll take a lot more than that to redeem himself.
Frankly, it seems like a matter of time before Atlanta does with Ozuna what the Arizona Diamondbacks did with Madison Bumgarner. That would open up DH for Eddie Rosario and others and, in all likelihood, would be addition by subtraction no matter what.
RHP Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals
7 of 9
Started: 6 of 31 G
Stats: 6 GS, 29.2 IP, 36 H (6 HR), 29 K, 9 BB, 8.49 ERA
What's the Problem?
Brady Singer hasn't been an All-Star or major award contender yet, but he's fresh off playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and he was one of the top hurlers in the American League last season.
That's a big-name pitcher in our book, and Singer even came into this season on an upswing after pitching to a 2.57 ERA over his last 15 starts of 2022.
Well, so much for that. The 26-year-old's ERA is the highest among hurlers with at least 29 innings by more than a full run. That he's in the 1st percentile for both exit velocity and hard-hit rate only further confirms that he's not fooling anyone.
What's the Solution?
Singer is too young and too talented for the Royals to think about moving him to the bullpen, but by now they should be worried about permanent damage to his confidence.
They can circumvent that by sending him down to Triple-A Omaha for at least a little while. And with Daniel Lynch making his way back from a rotator cuff strain, they'll soon have an excuse to do so.
1B Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
8 of 9
Started: 28of 29 G
Stats: 28 G, 117 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .210 AVG, .265 OBP, .314 SLG
What's the Problem?
It wasn't long ago that the hype train for Spencer Torkelson was running at full steam. The Tigers picked him No. 1 in the 2020 draft and he needed just one season in the minors before he made the big club out of spring training last year.
Though he ultimately hit .203 with a 76 OPS+, anyone could have spun it as a learning experience. And it seemed to have done the trick this spring, wherein the 23-year-old was crushing the ball.
It, uh, hasn't carried over. And while some of Torkelson's underlying metrics are better than they were last season, he's too pull-heavy for his own good. He has all of one hit to the opposite field.
What's the Solution?
The Tigers tried sending Torkelson down to the minors to find himself last season, and it clearly didn't take. Do they really want to do that again?
Probably not, but continuing to leave him out to dry isn't the solution either. Another stint at Triple-A Toledo is worth a shot, even if Tyler Nevin probably isn't a savior at the cold corner in his own right.
2B Kolten Wong, Seattle Mariners
9 of 9
Started: 20 of 30 G
Stats: 22 G, 80 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, .171 AVG, .263 OBP, .186 SLG
What's the Problem?
The Mariners picked a good time to trade for Kolten Wong when they did so in December. Already with two Gold Gloves to his name, he spent 2022 racking up a career-high 117 OPS+ for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Now his OPS+ is all the way down to 31, and there's no blaming it on bad luck. Basically all of Wong's peripheral numbers are down, with his average exit velocity even placing in the 1st percentile.
Further, this is the second year in a row that his defense hasn't rated well for Outs Above Average. So no matter which way you slice it, the 32-year-old isn't pulling his weight.
What's the Solution?
The Mariners don't have an able replacement for Wong at second base right now, but they will when Dylan Moore completes his recovery from offseason core surgery.
As for what should be done with Wong at that point, well, sometimes a team just has to say goodbye and eat some money. In this case, it would help that $1.8 million out of Wong's $10 million salary is already on the Brewers.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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