Kentucky Derby 2023 Post Positions: Updated Picks and Predictions After Draw

Hit Show will start in Gate 1 for the 149th Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs, but that does not necessarily translate to great odds for a victory.

The No. 1 spot has not produced a winner since 1986, which was when Ferdinand outraced the competition for the Derby trophy. It's a 37-year streak Hit Show will look to end in Louisville.

Which horses stand in his way of accomplishing that, and which other competitors have a chance to enter the history books with a win on the grandest stage in racing?

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Kentucky Derby 2023 Post Positions

1. Hit Show (30-1)
2. Verifying (15-1)
3. Two Phil's (12-1)
4. Confidence Game (20-1)
5. Tapit Trice (5-1)
6. Kingsbarns (12-1)
7. Reincarnate (50-1)
8. Mage (15-1)
9. Skinner (20-1)
10. Practical Move (10-1)
11. Disarm (30-1)
12. Jace's Road (15-1)
13. Sun Thunder (50-1)
14. Angel of Empire (8-1)
15. Forte (3-1)
16. Raise Can (50-1)
17. Derma Sotogake (10-1)
18. Rocket Can (15-1)
19. Lord Miles (30-1)
20. Continuar (30-1)

Odds via KentuckyDerby.com as of May 2

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Picks, Predictions and Stats

Worse yet than Gate 1 for potential winners in the Derby are posts 2, 9, 12, 14 and 17. Those numbers do not bode well for Verifying, Skinner, Jace's Road, Angel of Empire or Derma Sogotake, respectively.

Post 14 has not yielded a winning horse since 1961, according to KentuckyDerby.com, while no horse ever competing from the 17th position has ever won the race.

It is interesting, then, that Angel of Empire in Gate 14 carries the third-best odds into Saturday's race.

Jockey Flavian Prat is coming off his most successful year to date, in which he won 236 races and just under $30 million in prize money, and will look to build on the horse's win in the Arkansas Derby on April 1 with a second Kentucky Derby title.

Race favorite Forte is jockeyed by Irad Ortiz Jr., arguably the most decorated rider in his profession. Missing from his resume, though, is the Kentucky Derby trophy that has eluded him through six races to this point.

Not only has Forte won six of the seven races he has started, and has momentum on his side following five consecutive victories, but he is starting from post 15, where Derby winners Orb, American Pharoah and Authentic have started since 2013, according to the Derby's official website.

A ferocious racer that matches the aggressive nature of his rider, Forte is trained by the legendary Todd Pletcher and has been given every tool necessary to win the race. He is the favorite and should be.

But do not be surprised if Mage, at 15-1 odds, pulls off the upset.

Trained by Gustavo Delgado and jockeyed by Javier Castellano, he has proved to struggle out of the gate but can make up ground and showed he can race alongside Forte. The young horse finished second to the Derby favorite on April 1 at Gulfstream Park and even led him entering the final stretch.

His weakness is inexperience, having only competed in three races to this point in his career.

Despite tough competition, history is a powerful motivator, and Ortiz is chasing the one Triple Crown title that has eluded him in his all-time great career. With a horse trained by the best in the business and his eye on the Derby prize, look for the jockey to lead Forte to the winner's circle and hoist his first Derby Trophy.