Ranking the 10 Biggest Surprises of 2023 MLB Season's 1st Month
Try as we might, there is simply no predicting how a new baseball season is going to play out, and that's one of the things that makes the sport so great.
Sure, Mike Trout having an MVP-caliber season, Jacob deGrom racking up strikeouts and the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets battling it out atop the NL East are all things that even casual baseball fans could have predicted.
Even the Tampa Bay Rays' early success shouldn't come as that much of a surprise given their consistency in recent years, and the same goes for Luis Arraez having the best batting average in baseball and Ronald Acuña Jr. racking up stolen bases.
However, there have been some surprises that few could have seen coming, which is what we're focusing on here.
Ahead we've selected the 10 biggest surprises of the first month of the 2023 MLB season, highlighting eight players and two teams who have blown past expectations in the early going.
Check back Saturday morning for the other side of the coin as we look at the biggest disasters of the season's first month.
Aroldis Chapman, Kansas City Royals
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One of the most overpowering pitchers in baseball history at the peak of his career, Aroldis Chapman looked like he might be coming to the end of the road after struggling to a 4.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with an unsightly 6.9 walks per nine innings last season.
After routinely throwing a triple-digit fastball throughout his career, his velocity dipped to 97.5 mph, and his hard slider was not the same swing-and-miss secondary offering it had been in the past.
The 35-year-old met a limited market in free agency and ended up signing a one-year, $3.8 million deal with the Kansas City Royals. That is quickly shaping up to be one of the steals of the offseason.
Despite giving up runs in each of his last two outings, he still has a 1.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 16.4 K/9 in 10 appearances, and his fastball velocity has ticked back up to 99.5 mph with a career-high 2,534 rpm spin rate. If nothing else, he will be a valuable trade chip in July if his stuff doesn't regress.
Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays
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Elite defense at the hot corner and 30-homer power: Those are the tools that have made Matt Chapman one of the best third basemen in the league, albeit with some holes in his offensive game outside of the power production.
In 2021 and 2022, he hit a combined .219/.319/.418 with a strikeout rate hovering around 30 percent, and while he was a 3.5-WAR player both seasons, it was unclear what type of market he would have in free agency following the 2023 season given those middling numbers.
The 30-year-old has simply looked like a different player in the batter's box so far this year, leading the AL in batting average (.364) and on-base percentage (.446) while trimming his strikeout rate to a more manageable 23.8 percent and tallying 16 extra-base hits in 101 plate appearances.
His .458 BABIP is not sustainable over a full season, but the improvements in his strikeout rate and absolutely elite batted-ball metrics suggest he has taken a legitimate step forward offensively.
Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners
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Today's baseball fan is often all too quick to slap the dreaded "bust" label on a young player who doesn't find immediate success in the big leagues.
Jarred Kelenic was written off by more than a few people across the MLB landscape after hitting .168/.251/.338 with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate in 147 games—roughly one full season's worth of action—over the last two years.
However, he's still just 23 years old, and the upside that made him the No. 4 prospect in baseball at the start of the 2021 season didn't evaporate into thin air.
Through 22 games this year, he is hitting .325 with seven doubles, seven home runs, 14 RBI and an AL-leading .688 slugging percentage. The batted-ball metrics suggest his breakout is the real deal.
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Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies
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In what has the potential to be a rare win-win trade, the Philadelphia Phillies sent catching prospect Logan O'Hoppe to the Los Angeles Angels for controllable young outfielder Brandon Marsh at the 2022 trade deadline.
A former Top 100 prospect, Marsh was hitting .226/.284/.353 for a 79 OPS+ in 323 plate appearances at the time of the trade, but he made an immediate impact jumping from a middling Angels team to a Phillies squad in the thick of playoff contention.
The 25-year-old hit .288/.319/.455 for a 117 OPS+ with 0.9 WAR in 41 games after the trade to help the Phillies snag a wild-card berth and ultimately advance to the World Series. That has seemingly been the jumping-off point for Marsh's breakthrough season.
In 23 games, he is hitting .351/.435/.703 and leading the NL with a 208 OPS+ in 85 plate appearances, shoring up what had been a revolving door in center field the past several seasons.
James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
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James Outman was not even the most hyped rookie to break camp with a spot on the Los Angeles Dodgers roster. That honor went to infielder Miguel Vargas, who was among the top NL Rookie of the Year candidates to kick off the season.
A month later, Outman is now the early favorite to take home the hardware.
The 25-year-old is hitting .301/.383/.675 with 14 extra-base hits and 1.3 WAR in 25 games. And while his 27 strikeouts in 94 plate appearances are a minor red flag, his mix of power, speed and defense in center field should help keep his overall value high.
He was one of the breakout prospects of the 2022 season when he hit .294/.393/.586 with 31 doubles, 31 home runs, 106 RBI and 13 steals in 125 games between Double-A and Triple-A, so this is more a continuation of that breakout than an out-of-nowhere contribution.
Nevertheless, he has been one of the biggest surprises of the first month.
Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics
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Very little has gone right for an Oakland Athletics team that sports a 5-20 record and an unfathomably bad minus-112 run differential on the year.
However, the emergence of Brent Rooker, who was acquired via a simple waiver claim last November, has been a bright spot in the otherwise forgettable start to the season.
The Twins drafted Rooker with the 35th overall pick in the 2017 draft after he posted a 1.306 OPS with 23 home runs and 82 RBI in 67 games during his junior year at Mississippi State. He posted solid power numbers in the minors but never quite found a role in Minnesota, and he was traded to San Diego last April in the Taylor Rogers-for-Chris Paddack deal before being dealt to Kansas City in August.
In a lineup sorely lacking in impact bats, Rooker is hitting .315/.433/.685 with six home runs and 15 RBI, and his spot near the top in most batted-ball metrics suggests he is more than just a flash in the pan.
I'm sure the Oakland front office is already entertaining trade offers...
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
7 of 10
Left-hander Justin Steele had a quietly productive 2022 season with the Chicago Cubs, making 24 starts and finishing with a 3.18 ERA and 126 strikeouts in 119 innings. However, his 1.35 WHIP and .244 opponents' batting average painted him as more of a No. 3/4 starter than a future ace.
This season, opponents are hitting just .163 against him, he has trimmed his walk rate from 3.8 to 3.0 BB/9, and he has a terrific 0.89 WHIP in 30.1 innings of work over his first five starts of the new year.
The result is a 4-0 record and an NL-best 1.19 ERA for a Cubs team that leads the National League with a 3.11 ERA from the starting rotation.
His 3.37 FIP suggests there is some regression to come, but with an improved walk rate and strong marks when it comes to limiting hard contact, he could be on his way to an All-Star season and a prominent place atop the Chicago rotation.
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles
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Do you know who currently leads the majors in WHIP?
It's not Zac Gallen with his 28-inning scoreless streak, or Jacob deGrom with his 51-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It's also not aces Gerrit Cole, Luis Castillo or Shohei Ohtani, who are all off to fantastic starts as well.
It's Baltimore Orioles right-hander Tyler Wells.
The 28-year-old has allowed just 18 hits and three walks in 29 innings for a 0.72 WHIP over four starts and one relief appearance. His first outing of the year came from the bullpen and saw him toss five perfect innings.
Wells had a 4.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 103.2 innings last season, and he has always been a command-over-stuff pitcher, so his low walk rate is no big surprise. The bigger shock is that the 6'8" right-hander has limited opposing hitters to a .176 average while armed with a fastball that averages 92.9 mph and a changeup as his primary putaway pitch.
Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers front office spent roughly $820 million to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Martin Pérez the past two offseasons.
Given that massive investment in the on-field product, there are newfound expectations for a club that has not made the playoffs since 2016. But they have answered the bell during the season's first month.
With a 14-10 record, they entered play on Thursday a half-game up on a Houston Astros team many picked to repeat as World Series champions, and their plus-56 run differential was the second-highest in baseball behind only the Tampa Bay Rays.
The new-look rotation ranks ninth in the majors with a 3.67 ERA, and the bullpen has been solid with Will Smith in the closer's role. To top it off, the offense ranks in the top 10 in batting average (.261, sixth), OPS (.780, fifth), home runs (32, t-seventh) and runs scored (154, second).
Pittsburgh Pirates
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The perpetually rebuilding Pittsburgh Pirates finally seem to be getting somewhere.
With a 17-8 record and plus-31 run differential, they have started as hot as any team not named the Tampa Bay Rays, and they are doing it with a roster made up largely of under-the-radar players.
Guys like Jack Suwinski, Connor Joe, Johan Oviedo, Roansy Contreras, Colin Holderman and Duane Underwood Jr. are filling key roles on the roster after being acquired in trades the past few years; offseason free-agent signings Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez and Austin Hedges have helped round out the roster.
The hot start was enough to convince current face of the franchise Bryan Reynolds to agree to a eight-year, $106.8 million extension after he requested a trade just a few months ago. Even with dynamic young shortstop Oneil Cruz sidelined, this still feels like a team on the rise.
With more young talent coming up the minor league pipeline and a ton of early momentum to serve as a foundation for the season ahead, this team could be the 2023 version of the Baltimore Orioles as a young club that contends for a playoff berth sooner than expected.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Wednesday's games.
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