Ranking MLB's 10 Most Dangerous Offenses So Far in the 2023 Season
Major League Baseball literally rewrote the rules to inject more offense into games, and it's working. Compared to April 2022, offensive levels are way up so far in April 2023.
Of course, it also helps that some teams are just plain hot out of the gate.
For the sake of giving these clubs their due credit, we've ranked the 10 most dangerous offenses of the '23 season so far. This could have been as simple as looking at which have scored the most runs, but that would have been boring.
Instead, we considered how they're scoring runs. Are they powerful? Speedy? Pesky? Clutch? Some combination of all of the above? And how believable is what they're doing?
You can probably guess which team is No. 1, but let's get to counting 'em down anyway.
Note: All stats are current through play on Tuesday, April 25.
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 10
Runs per Game: 4.65 (13th)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Baserunning
To understand the Diamondbacks offense, it helps to understand Corbin Carroll.
The rookie outfield is a lot of things, but mainly what he is is really freakin' fast. His average sprint of 30.3 feet per second is about as good as it gets, and he clearly knows it.
It's not just that Carroll has been successful on 10 of his 11 stolen base attempts. It's also how seldom he merely advances one base when a teammate gets a hit. In those situations, he's taking the extra base two-thirds of the time.
As Carroll goes, so goes Arizona's offense. They're 24-for-28 stealing bases and the very best at taking extra bases on hits. With that much action on the basepaths, it's little wonder that they're fourth from the bottom of MLB in runners left on base.
It's not the easiest way to score runs, to be sure. But looking ahead, things will only get easier for the Snakes if Christian Walker, Alek Thomas and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. get going.
9. Houston Astros
2 of 10
Runs per Game: 4.88 (10th)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Persistence
OK, look. We get it. We get that this Astros offense has yet to resemble a typical Astros offense.
It's easiest to tell by looking at their strikeout rate, which is way up, and their isolated power, which is way down. Not having Jose Altuve isn't helping matters, nor is the fact that the signing of fellow MVP José Abreu has been a bust so far.
And yet, there the Astros are in the top 10 in runs per game anyway.
It's key that they're not giving much away. Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker are but two of seven regulars with an OPS+ over 100, and the whole club has done well under pressure. To wit, Houston ranks third in runs scored with two outs and runners in scoring position and first in runs between innings seven and nine.
Stuff like this may only be keeping the Astros afloat for now, but the sky outer space is the limit when Altuve returns and if Abreu ever heats up.
8. Boston Red Sox
3 of 10
Runs per Game: 5.62 (4th)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Relentlessness
The Red Sox lost their hottest hitter when Adam Duvall fractured his left wrist on April 9. Meanwhile, they have three regulars batting under the Mendoza line.
So how are they one of the top run-scoring teams in baseball anyway? Well, it doesn't hurt to have the American League's leading home run hitter.
With nine dingers to his name, Rafael Devers is already a third of the way to the 27 he hit last season. And they've all been bullets, averaging 106.8 mph off the bat.
Devers' heroics aside, the Red Sox have a knack for putting pressure on teams. You're simply going to score runs when you're leading everyone in plate appearances with runners in scoring position and you also have a league-high-tying 20 home runs with men on base.
If the Red Sox can do this with only about half of a functional lineup, one's mind goes to far-out places when imagining what they could do with a healthy Duvall and few more warm hitters.
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7. Chicago Cubs
4 of 10
Runs per Game: 5.65 (3rd)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Resiliency
The Cubs were supposed to be a defense-first contender this season, so their early offensive excellence is best taken with, like, a boulder of salt.
Still, there is lots to like about an offense that knows how to hit.
The North Siders are second in the National League with their .276 batting average and a .311 average with runners in scoring position that simply blows away the competition. The next-best average with RISP among NL clubs is .301.
Otherwise, the Cubs have tortured opponents in their own backyards with an MLB-high .881 OPS on the road. The last two teams to lead in that category were the 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers, who won 111 games, and the 2021 Houston Astros, who went to the World Series.
Because the Cubs don't really have any obvious underperformers in their offense, there is the question of whether it's all downhill from here. But at the same time, it makes one uneasy to doubt a team that's already beating expectations.
6. Texas Rangers
5 of 10
Runs per Game: 6.42 (1st)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Clutchness
Welcome to another Cubs-like situation, wherein a team that was supposed to thrive on run prevention is suspiciously scoring runs in Texas-sized bunches.
As to how the Rangers are doing it, suffice it to say they're not being wasteful.
They're not wasting swings, as their out-of-zone swing rate is second from the bottom of MLB. Even better, they're definitely not wasting scoring opportunities. They're the league leaders in OPS both with men on and with men in scoring position.
Skepticism is nonetheless warranted here on account of how clutch hitting is that it's an easy-come-easy-go sort of trait. The Rangers would do well to protect against regression by creating more scoring opportunities. Their .311 OBP with the bases empty must come up.
Yet there is hope on the horizon in the shape of Corey Seager. Once he returns from a strained hamstring in May, the Rangers will have their best pure hitter back.
5. Baltimore Orioles
6 of 10
Runs per Game: 5.21 (6th)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Balance
Walks are not to be ignored when talking about the Orioles. With an AL-high-tying 97 so far, free passes have been a big part of their offense.
But while walks are undeniably useful, they're also kind of dull. Especially in comparison to what Orioles hitters are doing when they're not simply trotting to first base.
This offense has power and speed in spades. It's one of two in all of MLB that has at least 40 doubles, 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases, and the only one in the American League.
Granted, 18 of Baltimore's 26 steals have come just from Cedric Mullins and Jorge Mateo. But they alone can't take all the credit for the Orioles' other quality on the basepaths, which is advancing more than one base at a time on hits.
All the Orioles are missing is greater consistency from home run leader Ryan Mountcastle and more of the power that rookie Gunnar Henderson showed late in 2022. If they get these things, they can be even more forceful with their balanced attack.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
7 of 10
Runs per Game: 5.04 (9th)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Better balance
The Pirates may not draw ball four quite as often, but their offense has perfected what the Orioles are going for.
The Bucs are the other team with 40 doubles and 25 each of home runs and stolen bases, and they've achieved those figures with a higher slugging percentage than the Orioles.
Not bad for a club that lost one of its most dynamic hitters when Oneil Cruz broke his ankle on April 9. And like the club's success in general, it's the real deal.
That the Pirates are first in MLB with 34 stolen bases speaks to their aggressiveness on the bases, but even better is how they operate at the plate. Rare are the times they expand the zone (29th in MLB) and often are those that they make hard contact (5th in MLB).
To the latter end, newly extended center fielder Bryan Reynolds has been unlucky despite his 135 OPS+. Only Matt Chapman has hit more balls with an ideal combination of launch angle and exit velocity, which they call barrels.
3. Atlanta
8 of 10
Runs per Game: 5.20 (T-6th)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Barrels
It's an Atlanta offense, so you know the deal. Lots of swings and misses, but also more than enough power to make up for it.
Atlanta can currently be found third from the top of MLB with 40 home runs. Four of their hitters have clubbed as many as five, which is something that only they and one other team can claim.
This is about what you'd expect from an offense that barrels the ball as well as Atlanta, which barrels it so well that it leads the league in that category.
As to where there's untapped potential in Atlanta's offense, look no further than Ronald Acuña Jr. He's been plenty effective in hitting .363 with a league-leading 13 stolen bases, but only four of his 13 barrels have left the yard. He's had some bad luck, including here and here.
Chances are that Acuña's power will heat up with the weather, in which case Atlanta's offense will be upgraded from a problem to an even bigger problem.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
9 of 10
Runs per Game: 5.20 (T-6th)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Power
Like the Orioles, the Dodgers like their walks. So much so that they have an eight-walk lead on the New York Mets for the league lead.
But once again, walks are dull. Considerably more fun are extra-base hits, for which the Dodgers clearly have a fondness.
They may only be second in MLB in total extra-base hits, but they're running away with the league lead in getting doubles, triples or home runs on 48 percent of their hits. And underneath all that is a great big pile of 70 barrels.
Does it help to have MLB's leading home run hitter in Max Muncy? You bet it does, especially considering that he's hit five of his 11 homers with men on base. It's part of the reason the Dodgers co-lead the league in that department.
To boot, the Dodgers offense is doing all this even as Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez remain relatively cool. Call it a hunch, but they probably won't remain that way forever.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
10 of 10
Runs per Game: 6.28 (2nd)
What Makes Them Dangerous: Everything
Surprise, surprise. The team that's 20-5 with a plus-87 run differential owns the best offense in baseball so far in 2023.
The hard part is finding categories in which the Rays don't lead the league. Just to name a few, they have the top marks for runs, home runs, extra-base hits, total bases, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Out of all those things, it's the long ball that's defining the Rays' season. They set a record by homering in each of their first 21 games, and only they and the Dodgers have as many as 13 games with multiple home runs.
As much as guys like Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz stand out from the pack, this has been a proper group effort. A dozen different Rays have hit at least two home runs, something that no other team can claim.
This, to be sure, is a highly unsustainable performance. But with so many good hitters, the Rays have plenty of bulwarks against a truly disastrous form of regression.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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