Worst Potential Landing Spots for Some of 2023 NFL Draft's Top Prospects
For NFL draft prospects, landing with a strong supporting cast and the right scheme can mean the difference between being an early success and getting the bust label.
For a time, quarterback Geno Smith appeared to be in the latter category. An early second-round pick of the New York Jets in 2013, Smith struggled early in his career before disappearing on a few depth charts and re-emerging as a Pro Bowler with the Seattle Seahawks in 2022.
Smith just signed a three-year, $75 million contract—a deal he likely never would have received if not for the opportunity in Seattle. With the Jets, he was saddled with a poor offensive line (sacked 43 times as a rookie) and a lack of quality receivers and was out as the starter after two seasons.
This year's top prospects won't want to wait nearly a decade for their big paydays and should hope that they land in the right situations on day one. While considering factors like scheme fit, roster depth, coaching tendencies and draft positioning, let's examine the situations some of the draft's top prospects should hope to avoid.
Players are listed in alphabetical order.
Jordan Addison, WR, USC: New York Giants
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USC wideout Jordan Addison is the third-ranked receiver on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board. In the Scouting Department's latest mock draft, Addison landed with the Buffalo Bills at pick No. 27.
Buffalo would be a good landing spot for the smallish (5'11", 173 pounds) receiver, as he would serve as a complement to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The New York Giants should be in play for a receiver two spots earlier.
However, New York is not an ideal destination for Addison. After adding Jamison Crowder and Parris Campbell, the Giants have a strong group of role-playing receivers—a group that also includes Isaiah Hodgins, Wan'Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.
What the Giants lack is a go-to No. 1 target, and that isn't Addison. He's more of a speed threat who can make plays after the catch and on designed gadget runs. New York already has a similar receiver in Robinson.
Addison's lack of size and play strength could also be a detriment against more physical defenses, at least until he gains more experience playing against them.
"He has the explosiveness to make defenders miss from time to time, but when corners get their hands on him, he loses all his momentum and is prone to being run into the boundary," Derrik Klassen of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "Moreover, Addison is up and down at the catch point as a result of his poor play strength."
In New York, Addison would repeatedly go up against the talented and physical secondaries of the rival Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The Giants' playoff window is open now, and they'd be better off pursuing a pro-ready receiver like Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba or a bigger possession receiver like SMU's Rashee Rice.
Addison, meanwhile, would be best-served by landing in an offense that features at least one established top-tier perimeter receiver, if not two. Teams like Buffalo and Philadelphia would offer Addison a best-case scenario.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama: Cincinnati Bengals
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Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs is the second-ranked running back on the B/R board, and while he wasn't a first-round pick in the Scouting Department's mock, he could go at the end of opening night.
Gibbs is a smaller back (5'9" 199 lbs) and an inconsistent receiver, but he is elusive in space and possesses breakaway speed, as evidenced by the 4.36-second 40-yard dash he ran at the scouting combine. His home-run-hitting ability is intriguing, but Gibbs will need to land in the right offense to succeed.
"Gibbs would be best served in a system that runs outside zone, pin-pull and counter frequently to maximize his ability in space and on the perimeter," Klassen wrote.
The Cincinnati Bengals could be in the market for a running back, depending on what happens with Joe Mixon, who could save the team $10 million in cap space if released after June 1. Cincinnati has not committed to Mixon, who averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last season.
"It's a big jigsaw puzzle and you put one piece in and maybe that changes the way you see another piece," Bengals executive vice president Katie Blackburn said, per Geoff Hobson of the team's official website. "So we just have to wait and see how things play out a little bit."
However, the Bengals are not a great fit for Gibbs. Sure, he'd benefit from having an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow and would have an opportunity to chase championships, but he wouldn't regularly get to showcase his talents—a necessity if he hopes to earn a lucrative second contract.
Cincinnati only utilized zone blocking on 60 percent of its runs last season, according to Sports Info Solutions, good for 25th in the NFL. The Bengals also feature one of the worst run-blocking interior lines in the league. As a team, they ranked 29th in yards per carry (3.8) last season.
If the Bengals replace Mixon, they need a more powerful back who can fight through contact. If they look to complement him, they need a receiving back who can replace the departed Samaje Perine. Gibbs would fill neither role.
Landing with a team that utilizes more zone blocking—like the Chicago Bears or Los Angeles Rams—at the top of Round 2 would be better for Gibb's long-term earnings potential.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky: Houston Texans
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The Houston Texans will have a shot at one of the top three quarterbacks in this draft—Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Alabama's Bryce Young—at No. 2 overall.
However, the Texans reportedly won't force a quarterback selection at No. 2 if Young goes first overall, as he did in the B/R Scouting Department's mock draft.
"There is a belief around the league that Houston has eyes for Bryce Young (Alabama) but isn't sold on the other potential Round 1 quarterbacks," ESPN's Matt Miller wrote.
There's a chance that Houston trades out of the No. 2 spot or takes the best player available. It could do so and still potentially take a flier on a quarterback with the 12th pick—a selection obtained from the Cleveland Browns in the Deshaun Watson trade.
Kentucky's Will Levis went to the Tennessee Titans at No. 11 in the B/R mock. If he slides to No. 12, Houston might flip the switch and scoop up the former Wildcat. However, this would not be an ideal pairing for Levis.
While Levis has good size (6'4", 229 lbs) and arm talent, he's unpolished.
"Levis' pre-snap processing still needs work, particularly with respect to blitz anticipation and replacement. Levis also needs to iron out consistency as a post-snap processor," Klassen wrote. "More worrying, Levis' ball placement isn't quite what you'd like."
Houston lacks a strong offensive supporting cast, especially after trading Brandin Cooks earlier this offseason. Chris Moore, who had 548 receiving yards last season, is the most productive returning wideout.
The Texans added Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz in free agency, but they still feature a bottom-tier receiving corps. There are ways to get the most out of it with a rookie quarterback, however.
Stroud's accuracy and processing prowess could help give Houston a functional passing attack. Young's ability to create big plays inside and outside of the pocket could do the same. Richardson, meanwhile, could use his dual-threat ability to keep the offense afloat while learning on the job—similar to Justin Fields and Chicago this past season.
Each of those three would be a better fit for Houston, as Levis will require either a very strong roster or time to sit behind a seasoned veteran—one more established than Davis Mills.
A team like Tennessee—which has Ryan Tannehill for another season—or the Las Vegas Raiders (Jimmy Garoppolo) would be better for Levis' development.
Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia: Dallas Cowboys
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Georgia's Nolan Smith is the third-ranked pass-rusher on the B/R board behind Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. and Clemson's Myles Murphy. Unlike those two, Smith is a leaner (6'2", 238 lbs) defender who would be best utilized standing up in an odd-front defense.
The Dallas Cowboys don't necessarily need an edge-rusher—their defense produced 54 sacks last season—but they could use linebacker depth and a succession plan for DeMarcus Lawrence, who will be a free agent in 2025.
Smith went at No. 19 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the B/R mock, but if he makes it to the 26th pick, he should hope that Dallas goes in a different direction.
There are a few reasons for this. For starters, while Dallas does use a three-man base defensive front, the Cowboys are rarely in a base formation. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Cowboys were in nickel 74 percent of the time last season. Linebacker Micah Parsons regularly moved up to fill the edge position opposite Lawrence in these situations.
If the Cowboys do flip the switch on a pass-rusher early, it should be one better equipped to rush from the defensive line—like, perhaps, Georgia Tech's Keion White (6'5", 285 lbs).
The other issue with this potential pairing is that Smith isn't well suited to provide linebacker depth behind, say, Leighton Vander Esch—who is a solid sideline-to-sideline defender but who has missed 17 games over the last four seasons.
"[Smith] could play as a standup outside linebacker on odd fronts," Matt Holder of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "That's closer to how he was used in college, but he wasn't the best in coverage, which could be an issue in that scheme at the next level."
Simply put, Smith is likely destined for a role similar to Parson's early in his career—as a run-stopping outside linebacker who also rushes from the edge—and there really isn't room for that on Dallas' roster.
A team like Tampa or the Jacksonville Jaguars, where he could rotate with Josh Allen and Travon Walker, would provide better early opportunities for Smith.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State: Baltimore Ravens
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The Baltimore Ravens recently signed free-agent receiver Odell Beckham Jr., possibly in an attempt to entice quarterback Lamar Jackson to sign his franchise-tag tender. Baltimore has lacked quality receiver depth since Jackson was drafted in 2018, and Beckham at least helps to address the issues.
Could the Ravens dip into the draft pool to further address that need? Perhaps, but Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba should hope that he doesn't land in Baltimore.
Smith-Njigba may not be on the board by the time the Ravens select at 22nd overall. He went at No. 12 to Houston in the B/R mock. According to Jim Nagy, the executive director of the Reese's Senior Bowl, Smith-Njigba is the only first-round-worthy receiver in the eyes of many teams.
If Baltimore is one of those teams, it might be willing to trade up to secure Smith-Njigba or grab him if he slides.
The problem is that the Ravens' run-oriented offense hasn't been very friendly to first-round receivers. Marquise Brown logged just one 1,000-yard season before being shipped to the Arizona Cardinals. Breshad Perriman lasted only three years before being released, while Rashod Bateman has just 800 receiving yards through two campaigns.
While things will likely change under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, Baltimore has been particularly unfriendly to slot receivers. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Ravens used only one or two receivers 82 percent of the time last season. Even if things change dramatically under Monken, the Ravens are likely to use free-agent addition Nelson Agholor in the slot between Beckham and Bateman.
Smith-Njigba, meanwhile, is likely to be a slot-only receiver at the next level.
"It's just hard to imagine someone with Smith-Njigba's lackluster speed and inability to play outside (for now, at least) being a bona fide star receiver," Klassen wrote.
If Baltimore insists on adding another receiver, a big-play specialist like Jordan Addison—who can take advantage of Jackson's ability to buy time in the pocket and separate downfield—would be best. Of course, given their poor track record with first-round receivers, the Ravens may want to avoid the position entirely on Day 1.
Smith-Njigba, meanwhile, would benefit from landing with a team more reliant on three-receiver sets, like Buffalo, or perhaps reuniting with C.J. Stroud—a scenario that played out in the Scouting Department's mock.
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa: Los Angeles Chargers
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Former Iowa pass-rusher Lukas Van Ness is almost the opposite of Smith. While the 6'5", 272-pound defender might be able to rush from the linebacker spot, his best fit will be as a defensive end.
"Schematically, Van Ness would be best as a hand-in-the-ground defensive end in even fronts," Holder wrote.
That's part of the reason why the Los Angeles Chargers would be a poor fit for Van Ness, even though L.A. should be in the pass-rusher market. The Chargers logged 40 sacks in 2022 but lost Drue Tranquill (five sacks) in free agency and only have Khalil Mack under contract for two more seasons.
Los Angeles tends to rush from the linebacker position in its 3-4 base defense. If L.A. is eyeing another pass-rusher, a rush linebacker like Nolan Smith who can rotate with Joey Bosa and Mack would be ideal.
The other issue is that Van Ness, who wasn't a full-time starter in college, is a relatively raw prospect with limited athleticism and a heavy reliance on the bull rush.
"He's inferior athletically to a lot of other top edge defenders in this year's draft class," Holder wrote. "That seemed to limit the Hawkeye's pass-rush arsenal to power moves and can cause him to lose contain against athletic quarterbacks."
The AFC West happens to feature two very athletic quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. And if Van Ness is going to need time to develop, that's a problem for a Chargers team looking to get over the proverbial playoff hump now.
Ideally, Van Ness will land with a team that utilizes a lot of four-man fronts and has established starters behind which he can learn. The Cowboys and the Eagles are two teams that could ease Van Ness into a prominent role.
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