Prospects for Patriots to Avoid in the 2023 NFL Draft
The 2023 NFL draft class has a good number of offensive prospects who could force the New England Patriots and other teams away from their predraft game plan.
New England comes into the first round on April 27 with clear needs at cornerback and wide receiver, one of which should be addressed with the No. 14 overall pick.
Drafting a corner or wide receiver would be the ideal move for the Patriots, but there is a scenario in which the top running back and tight end are available at No. 14.
Texas running back Bijan Robinson and Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer would be fascinating additions to the Patriots' offensive depth chart, but they do not fit the current roster build.
Selecting a running back or tight end would seem redundant based on the Patriots' offensive moves in free agency. They landed James Robinson to back up Rhamondre Stevenson and Mike Gesicki to partner Hunter Henry.
The Patriots could add depth at those positions in the later rounds, but the focus at No. 14 must be on improving the two biggest positional needs.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
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The thought of Mayer becoming the second version of Rob Gronkowski in New England has to have at least crossed the minds of some Patriots fans.
Mayer measured at 6'4½" and 249 pounds at the NFL combine. Gronkowski checked in at 6'6" and 264 pounds before the 2010 NFL draft.
The allure of drafting Mayer at No. 14 is understandable because of Henry's drop-off from nine touchdown catches in 2021 to two in 2022. Henry's receiving-yard total fell from 603 to 509.
Henry can be a better touchdown producer in 2023. After all, this is a tight end with 32 career scoring catches in seven seasons.
The Patriots addressed their underwhelming tight end production in the offseason by trading Jonnu Smith, who had 539 receiving yards in two seasons, to the Atlanta Falcons. He was replaced with Gesicki, who was signed as a free agent after the Miami Dolphins let him walk.
Gesicki struggled last season with 362 receiving yards on 32 receptions. They were his lowest reception and yard totals since his rookie season in 2018.
The argument in favor of a Gesicki resurgence is that Miami's offensive shift under head coach Mike McDaniel did not favor the Penn State product.
The Patriots took a risk on Gesicki hoping that he will return to the 700-yard form from 2021, or something close to that, in 2023.
Mayer could be the best player available on the board at No. 14, but the Patriots can't risk taking him with two veteran tight ends already in place and a clear need on the outside at wide receiver.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
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The Patriots selected two running backs in the first round since 2000.
Robinson will not join Sony Michel and Laurence Maroney on that list because of the Patriots' draft needs.
Robinson is a fascinating prospect who is expected to land in the middle of the first round. ESPN.com's Mel Kiper Jr. has the Texas product landing at No. 18. NFL.com's Rhett Lewis has the Philadelphia Eagles taking Robinson at No. 10.
There is no guarantee that Robinson will even be available for the Patriots to consider at No. 14, but if he is, they have to pass on the Texas product.
New England has an established backfield with Stevenson and Robinson, and more trust could be put into 2022 fourth-round pick Pierre Strong Jr.
The Patriots had success finding productive running backs in the middle rounds recently, as Stevenson was a fourth-round pick in 2021 and Damien Harris was chosen in the third round in 2019.
New England can select a running back in the 2023 draft, but it can't be in the first round.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
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There are health concerns regarding Jaxon Smith-Njigba's impact at the professional level.
The Ohio State product had 95 receptions and 1,606 receiving yards in 2021, but then he barely played in 2022 when he was going to be the Buckeyes' primary pass-catcher.
Smith-Njigba played in just three games in his final collegiate season because of a hamstring injury, and even though he may be full healthy now, the Patriots could have some hesitation bringing him in.
The organization as a whole may have trepidations about picking any wide receiver in the first round since the N'Keal Harry pick in 2019 went so poorly. Harry produced over 300 receiving yards once in three seasons with the Patriots.
New England has to find the right pass-catcher for Mac Jones to work with. It can ill afford another year of average wide receiver play while trying to play catch up with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.
The Patriots could decide to pass on all of the top wide receivers in the draft and go after a prospect in the second or third round so that they can select a top cornerback.
Both Kiper and Lewis have Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez going to the Patriots at No. 14 in their mock drafts.
The Patriots may feel that they need to select a top cornerback at No. 14 because the drop-off from the top-tier prospects to the second- and third-rounders is too big.
If they like wide receivers who project to the second or third round, they could feel more comfortable landing one of those players instead of Smith-Njigba.
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