Predicting 2023 5th-Year Option Decisions On Notable Former 1st Round NFL Draft Picks
With the 2023 NFL draft rapidly approaching, the league's decision-makers are largely focused on the incoming draft class. However, some attention must be given to the 2020 class as well.
Players drafted in the first round in 2020 are eligible for the fifth-year option, and teams have until May 1 to exercise it. The ones that do will essentially extend players for an extra year without negotiating a new deal.
While fifth-year salaries are more in-line with veteran contracts than they were before the 2020 collective bargaining agreement—factors like playing time and performance can increase the value—they can still make for team-friendly deals. The Miami Dolphins, for example, have already exercised Tua Tagovailoa's option this offseason. He's now set to earn $23.2 million in 2024—a significant jump from his 2023 cap hit of $9.6 million but far below the going rate for above-average quarterbacks.
Using value projections from Spotrac as a guide, we'll examine some of the most notable fifth-year decisions that still must be made this offseason. Factors like proven production, player health, potential upside and positional value were all considered here.
To find out "notable" decisions, we're looking specifically at top-10 selections, high-value positions and Pro Bowlers.
Quarterbacks
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Tagovailoa's situation illustrates how exercising the fifth-year option on a quarterback can provide some financial flexibility. However, there's a lot more to consider than just dollars and cents.
Lamar Jackson's situation with the Baltimore Ravens is a prime example of how waiting to extend a player can backfire. Jackson played on the fifth-year option last season, and Baltimore was forced to use the franchise tag on him this year.
The going rate for top-tier quarterbacks will only increase with each passing year and each new contract. The Buffalo Bills extended Josh Allen after Year 3 on a deal worth $43 million annually. Jackson is likely looking for a deal more in-line with the one Deshaun Watson signed last offseason—one worth $46 million annually and one that includes $230 million fully guaranteed.
Of course, exercising the fifth-year option doesn't necessarily mean letting the quarterback play on it. It could make sense for Tagovailoa—who sustained multiple concussions in 2022 and has just one strong year on his resume—but for Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers, it should be an easy decision.
Herbert has been named Offensive Rookie of the Year, made the Pro Bowl and taken L.A. to the postseason. There's little doubt that he's the Chargers' long-term answer at quarterback.
Love, meanwhile, has just one start on his resume after spending his first three seasons backing up Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay needs time to evaluate Love before making a decision on his future, so the fifth-year option makes perfect sense.
Herbert's fifth-year option would be worth $29.5 million, while Love's is set at $20.3 million.
2020 first-overall pick and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow—who has made one trip to the Super Bowl and two trips to the AFC title game—has also proven himself. Keeping him for Year 5 at $29.5 million would be logical.
However, there's at least a chance that Burrow agrees to an early extension before Cincinnati gets around to exercising the option.
"Joe knows how he wants to set his contract up to keep his weapons around him," Bengals wideout Ja'Marr Chase said on NFL Network in February (h/t Austin Elmore of ESPN 1530).
If Cincinnati is smart, it will lock up Burrow before someone like Herbert drives up the quarterback price point.
Prediction: Herbert and Love receive the fifth-year option. Burrow signs a long-term extension.
Chase Young, Edge, Washington Commanders
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The Washington Commanders made Ohio State pass-rusher Chase Young the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, and he went on to be a rookie Pro Bowler and win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
However, Young suffered a torn ACL in 2021 and spend most of this past season rehabbing, only appearing in the final three contests.
While Young showed a ton of potential early, he has only logged nine sacks, 50 tackles and 38 quarterback pressures in 27 career games. Because of the injury and the missed time, the decision on Young's fifth-year option won't be easy.
"We get started April 17, so we'll continue to work through these things—talk to the doctors, talk to the trainers, strength and medical—and just kind of get a feel for where he is," Commanders head coach Ron Rivera said, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Washington Post. "Then we'll be able to make a decision."
If Washington picks up Young's fifth-year option, it will guarantee him $17.5 million in 2024. While that's a fair rate for a high-end pass-rusher, it's a sizeable salary, and Washington already has a lot invested in its defensive front.
Defensive tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen will carry a combined cap hit of $43.1 million in 2024. That's a lot, but our guess is that Washington will add Young's fifth-year option to the mix.
Should Young return to Pro Bowl form without the option, Washington might have to use the franchise tag to keep him. The tag value for defensive ends was $19.7 million this season and will only go up moving forward.
Prediction: Washington exercises Young's option.
Jeff Okudah, CB, Atlanta Falcons
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The Detroit Lions drafted former Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah third overall in 2020. On Tuesday, he was traded to the Atlanta Falcons for a 2023 fifth-round draft pick, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero,
Injuries largely prevented Okudah's career from ever really getting off the ground in Detroit. He was forced to undergo core muscle surgery as a rookie and suffered a ruptured Achilles in 2021.
Last season, Okudah started 15 games and did finally flash some promise. While he didn't perform at an elite level, he was decent in coverage, allowing an opposing passer rating of 87.6.
Had Okudah remained in Detroit, this would be an easy prediction. While players can't be faulted for injuries, Okudah simply hasn't shown enough to justify using the fifth-year option at a price of $11.5 million. Atlanta, though, might just be willing to gamble on Okudah's ability to finally live up to his draft status.
The Falcons are projected to have $82.4 million in cap space next offseason. Cutting that number by $11.5 million might be worth a bet on Okudah. Should the former Buckeye finally become a Pro Bowl talent, keeping him would cost much more—this year's tag value for the position is $18.1 million.
The prediction here, however, is that Atlanta eschews the fifth-year option and instead gives Okudah a one-year trial run. The Falcons didn't give up a ton to get him, and they won't lose a lot if he doesn't pan out. If he does become a reliable starter and stays healthy, Atlanta will have the cap room to tag or extend him.
Prediction: Falcons don't exercise Okudah's fifth-year option.
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Andrew Thomas, OT, New York Giants
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Former Georgia offensive tackle Andrew Thomas was the fourth pick in the 2020 draft and the last player selection before Tagovailoa and Herbert came off the board. The Giants weren't in the QB market after taking Daniel Jones the previous season, but they were looking for someone to protect the passer.
Thomas struggled out of the gate, allowing 10 sacks as a rookie, according to Pro Football Focus. However, he has shown growth throughout his career and was a very reliable blindside protector this past season.
Over the past two seasons, Thomas was responsible for only five combined sacks, according to PFF. He was named a second-team All-Pro this past season for his efforts.
Is Thomas an elite left tackle? Not yet, but he's trending in the right direction and played a significant role in helping the Giants end their playoff drought last season. Head coach Brian Daboll and the Giants have prioritized continuity on offense this offseason, extending Jones, tagging Saquon Barkley and re-signing Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard.
It seems that New York doesn't want Thomas going anywhere either. According to The Athletic's Dan Duggan, the Giants are interested in granting the 24-year-old an early contract extension.
The prediction here is that New York exercises Thomas' fifth-year option and spends much of the coming season working on a long-term deal.
Prediction: New York exercises Thomas' fifth-year option.
Derrick Brown, DT, Carolina Panthers
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The Carolina Panthers made Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown the seventh pick in the 2020 draft. While Brown has yet to become a Pro Bowl-level talent, Carolina has gotten a solid return on investment.
In his three seasons, Brown has appeared in 49 of 50 possible games and has logged 142 tackles, six sacks and 48 quarterback pressures—strong numbers for an interior defender. He's coming off a stellar 67-tackle campaign and is looking for more.
"Had a decent year; looking for an exciting year next year, so I'm going to go ahead and put all my focus that way," Brown said, per Augusta Stone of the team's official website.
There are two big reasons why using the option on Brown would be logical. The first is that Carolina came close to winning the NFC South in 2022 and will soon add a quarterback of the future to the mix.
The Panthers traded to get the No. 1 pick in this month's draft, and if that selection isn't a quarterback, it would be a major shock. If said quarterback performs well, Carolina will be able to build a contender around a rookie QB contract for the next four or five seasons. Paying for Brown's $11.7 million option shouldn't be an issue.
The other factor to consider is the rising cost of quality defensive tackles. Dre'Mont Jones, drafted a year ahead of Brown, just signed a free-agent deal worth $17.2 million annually.
Expect Carolina to exercise Brown's option this year and work to extend him before the price of defensive linemen jumps again in 2024.
Prediction: Carolina exercises Brown's fifth-year option.
Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals
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The Arizona Cardinals tabbed former Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons with the eighth overall pick in the 2020 draft. While Simmons didn't see a ton of playing time early (34 percent of the snaps in 2020), he's gotten onto the field more over the past two seasons.
The issue for Arizona is that finding a natural fit for Simmons has been difficult. He's played sort of a linebacker/safety hybrid role and spent much of this past season defending the slot.
Production hasn't been the issue—Simmons had 99 tackles, four sacks and two interceptions this past season—and the former regime was high on his upside.
"Imagine what he was last year and what he became this year," former defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said, per Darren Urban of the team's official website. "Fast forward to next year, hopefully it's twice as good."
The problem is that the former regime is gone. General manager Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon didn't draft Simmons, and they'll be less eager to find a hybrid role that works for the former Tiger.
While Simmons put up numbers as a slot defender, he wasn't particularly efficient, allowing an opposing passer rating of 104.3 in coverage.
Our guess is that the new regime will try to make things work with Simmons while giving him a year to prove himself in a new system. Locking him in for another year at a cost of $12.7 million, though, wouldn't make a ton of sense.
Prediction: Cardinals don't exercise Simmons' fifth-year option.
C.J. Henderson, CB, Carolina Panthers
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Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson was taken ninth overall in 2020 by the Jacksonville Jaguars. He lasted just over a year in Jacksonville before being traded to the Panthers in September of 2021.
Jacksonville got a relatively minor return for Henderson—he was dealt along with a 2022 fifth-round pick for a 2022 third-rounder and tight end Dan Arnold—considering he was a top-10 selection.
In Carolina, Henderson has been merely serviceable. He has started 15 games over the past two seasons, but he hasn't exactly been a top asset. In 2021, he allowed an opposing passer rating of 121.6 in coverage for the Panthers. This past season, he allowed an opposing passer rating of 103.5.
The Panthers have a promising cornerback duo in Donte Jackson and 2021 eighth-overall pick Jaycee Horn, so keeping Henderson around shouldn't be a priority. Carolina will likely continue its experiment with him for another year, but locking in a fifth year at $11.5 million would be illogical.
Along with Okudah, Henderson is already verging on the precipice of being labeled a bust. If he sticks with the Panthers beyond this season, it won't be on the fifth-year option.
Prediction: Carolina does not exercise Henderson's fifth-year option.
Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Cleveland Browns
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Alabama offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. was the final top-10 selection in 2020. The Cleveland Browns snagged the former Crimson Tide standout and immediately moved him from right tackle—where he protected the blindside of the left-handed Tagovailoa in college—to left tackle.
The results have been mixed. Wills' reliability pales in comparison to Cleveland's former franchise left tackle and newly-minted Hall of Famer Joe Thomas. In 2022, Wills was responsible for 10 penalties and six sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Focus. To be fair, Thomas set an incredibly high bar in Cleveland.
However, Wills has been a strong run blocker and is coming off a season in which he played 98 percent of the offensive snaps.
"He played well. I really think, if he stays healthy, the trajectory continues to ascend," Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said of Wills' 2022 campaign, per Zac Jackson of The Athletic.
While Wills hasn't been perfect, the Browns are still high on him. That alone leads up to believe that they'll exercise his $14.2 million fifth-year option. Perhaps more importantly, though, it's hard to see Cleveland finding a clear-cut upgrade at the position over the next two offseasons
Older tackles like Tyron Smith and Duane Brown headline the 2024 free-agent pool, and the Browns don't have a first-round selection in next year's draft because of the Deshaun Watson trade. Picking up Wills' option is the logical move here.
Prediction: Cleveland exercises Wills' fifth-year option.
Tristan Wirfs, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded up a spot to secure Iowa offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs with the 13th overall selection in 2020. The former Hawkeyes star has already been to two Pro Bowls as Tampa's right tackle, and now he may make the move to the all-important left tackle spot.
"The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have discussed the possibility of moving All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the left side," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler wrote last month. "Wirfs would have to be comfortable with that, but the early belief is he'll be open to the possibility."
The Buccaneers released starting left tackle Donovan Smith this offseason.
Wirfs has already shown that he can be among the best linemen in the league, earning a first-team All-Pro nod in 2021. However, he did miss four games in 2022 with an ankle injury and has yet to prove that he can be as reliable on the left side.
In this case, the fifth-year option won't necessarily be a massive bargain for the Buccaneers.
As a Pro Bowker, Wirfs would earn a whopping $18.2 million on the option. That's a fair price for a top-tier tackle, but it would still put Wirfs in the top 10 in terms of annual salary. It's a potentially problematic number, as the Buccaneers are projected to have $30.9 million in cap space next offseason.
Potentially complicating matters is the fact that linebacker Devin White—who is set to play on the fifth-year option—has requested a trade, according to ESPN's Jenna Laine. The Bucs could look to give White a new contract instead of trading him, which could further cut into Tampa's 2024 cap space.
Our guess, though, is that Tampa will try to keep as many core pieces in place as possible as it rebuilds in the post-Tom Brady era. Expect the Bucs to exercise Wirfs' option, do what it can to appease White, and deal with the financial ramifications down the road.
Prediction; Buccaneers exercise Wirfs' fifth-year option.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
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The Dallas Cowboys selected Oklahoma wideout CeeDee Lamb with the 17th overall pick in the 2020 draft, and it's safe to say that Dallas doesn't regret the decision.
in his three years as a pro, Lamb has racked up 3,396 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns, made two Pro Bowls and cemented himself as the Cowboys' new No. 1 receiver. This past season, he provided a passer rating of 104.1 when targeted.
While Lamb's fifth-year option won't come at a bargain price—it'll come in at $19.7 million—it's hard to envision Dallas not exercising it.
Dallas has a history of locking up its own players as long as they're performing. 2018 first-round pick Leighton Vander Esch didn't receive the fifth-year option, but he battled injuries in his second and third seasons—and he's since re-signed twice. The Cowboys used the franchise tag on Dalton Schultz last offseason and used it on Tony Pollard this year.
Lamb has become an offensive centerpiece in Dallas, and in February, executive vice president Stephen Jones said that Lamb was "in our plans long term," per Calvin Watkins of the Dallas Morning News.
The only way that Dallas doesn't exercise Lambs' option is if it works out a long-term extension with him first. The prediction here is that Lamb gets the tag and gets his extension next offseason.
Prediction: Dallas exercises Lambs' fifth-year option.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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The Minnesota Vikings took LSU wideout Justin Jefferson with the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 draft, and Jefferson has since emerged as arguably the league's best receiver.
In his three pro seasons, Jefferson has caught 324 passes for 4,825 yards and 25 touchdowns. He's made the Pro Bowl three times and been a first-team All-Pro once. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota would like to keep him around.
"When you have guys like that in your building," general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said, per ESPN's Kevin Seifert, "[you] try everything you can to not let them out."
The only real question here is whether the Vikings will exercise Jefferson's $19.7 million option or extend him first. If Minnesota goes the extension route, there's a very good chance that Jefferson surpasses Tyreek Hill as the league's highest-paid receiver in terms of annual salary.
The problem is that Minnesota isn't well positioned to give Jefferson up-front money on a new contract this offseason. Equipped with just $1.1 million in cap space, the Vikings could struggle to pay bonuses and guarantees, even with them being prorated over the length of the contract.
Minnesota still needs to create cap space with which to sign its draft picks later this month.
The prediction here is that Minnesota exercises Jefferson's option and works to extend him sometime between the draft and the start of the 2024 season.
Prediction: Minnesota exercises Jefferson's fifth-year option.
*Cap and contract information via Spotrac. Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
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