Predicting the Next Wave of NBA Stars to Hit the Trade Block
The next NBA blockbuster trade is coming soon.
They almost operate like clockwork during the player empowerment era. If a superstar doesn't sour on his situation and demand his way out, then his team might heed the proverbial writing on the wall and recognize the need for major change.
Either way, a landscape-shifting swap is never far off. If a megadeal doesn't go down this summer, then one could materialize early next season as someone reacts to a surprise stumble out of the starting block.
So, which star will most likely be on the move? Our crystal ball isn't quite certain, but by weighing items such as differing timelines, stalling performances and closing championship windows, it spotlighted the following five candidates.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
1 of 5
Bradley Beal is about to wrap his 11th NBA season with the Washington Wizards. This campaign will be his sixth that fails to deliver a playoff berth. He has never traveled beyond the conference semifinals and last reached that point in 2017.
This background perhaps helps connect the dots from a vague but potentially revealing comment he made earlier this season.
"I'm patient, but there comes a time where you have to be a little selfish and draw a line in the sand, for sure," Beal told Andscape's Marc J. Spears in February.
Only Beal knows where his line in the sand sits, but one playoff trip and zero postseason series wins to show for the past five seasons must be in the same zip code, right?
Now, he did recommit to this franchise last summer on a five-year deal worth a quarter-billion dollars, so that potentially complicates things. His scoring is elite (27 points per game on 47.4/34.7/84.5 shooting since the start of 2018-19), but is it worth $50 million annually?
Let's just say a team acquiring him would almost assuredly want to offload some long-term money in that exchange.
Still, his point production, secondary playmaking and floor spacing can help someone win—just not the Wizards. They've given zero indication of being able to build a winner around him, and it's not like that task will simplify as he moves into his 30s and grows more expensive by the season. It's time for Beal to start working on his stick-in-sand sketching.
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
2 of 5
The Chicago Bulls are on the brink of a rebuild. They should be, anyway.
Since losing floor general Lonzo Ball to a meniscus tear and bone bruise last January, Chicago has gone 57-63. And remember, this is a franchise that "will not settle for mediocrity," according to vice president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas.
What could possibly convince the Bulls—and 33-year-old DeMar DeRozan for that matter—that things will be any different next season? Ball's 2023-24 campaign is already in jeopardy, and this club has yet to string any consistency together without him. This roster was built to overwhelm opponents with offense, yet it sits a jarring 23rd in offensive efficiency.
With unrestricted free agency awaiting Nikola Vučević this offseason—and greeting DeRozan next summer—the Bulls have the chance to make a clean break. If they think they can reload quickly, they can convince themselves it's sensible to retain 28-year-old Zach LaVine. But the same can't be said for DeRozan, who will turn 34 in August.
He can't fix what ails this club. He could, however, spruce up an actual win-now squad's attack with some of the finest one-on-one scoring in the business. Among the 26 players who handle at least three isolations per game, he's one of four players ranked in the 89th percentile or better on those plays.
His scoring range doesn't push past the three-point arc, but given his inside-the-arc mastery and ability to create for others, it doesn't need to. He slots in the 91st percentile for offensive estimated plus/minus and ranks among the league's top 35 in offensive RAPTOR. This elite output should matter more than it does. Get him out of Chicago, and it will.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
3 of 5
At any and every opportunity, Damian Lillard has professed his loyalty to the Portland Trail Blazers. So, why does Portland seem so determined to test his conviction?
The Blazers were playoff locks for nearly a decade straight and even followed Lillard's lead to the 2019 Western Conference Finals, but everything has come crashing down the last two seasons. And they aren't merely out of the playoff race, but rather once again tanking to salvage the lottery-protected pick they owe the Chicago Bulls (an obligation, by the way, with protections on it through 2028).
Adding insult to...well, insult, this also comes after Lillard assured fans last season, "This will not continue next year."
To his credit, Lillard did everything he could to make good on that promise.
At 32 years old, he matched his previous best in player efficiency rating (26.9) and set a career high in scoring (32.2). He even made the Blazers decent when he played (plus-2.1 on-court rating), which is far more impressive than it sounds upon considering how dreadful they've been without him (minus-9.7).
He doesn't have nearly enough help to win anything of substance, and his supporting cast could take a big blow if Jerami Grant bolts as an unrestricted free agent. Portland also lacks the assets to get Lillard more support. That pick protection makes it tricky to add draft choices to a deal, and the combination of Anfernee Simons (the club's second-leading scorer) and Shaedon Sharpe probably isn't trumping the best offers for a top-tier star.
The Blazers appear stuck in the Association's lower-middle class, and they almost certainly need a Lillard trade to unstick themselves. If they can't see that, then hopefully he can.
Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors
4 of 5
Nestled north of the border, the Toronto Raptors reside in that claustrophobic nook between a rock and a hard place. Their ceiling stops well short of title contention, but their basement doesn't drop low enough for them to bottom out.
They were this season's first team to lock into a play-in berth, which feels like the perfect encapsulation of their position in the hoops hierarchy. This offseason offers the perfect opportunity to change that.
They have several key contributors headed to unrestricted free agency (or will as soon as Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. make the no-brainer calls to decline their player options). They also have a 21-year-old centerpiece to build around in reigning Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes and could have a second building block depending on how they feel about 25-year-old O.G. Anunoby's future.
But 29-year-old Pascal Siakam, who booked his second All-Star trip this season, has no place in that picture. Inject the Raptors with a truth serum, and they might admit as much. Last season, The Athletic's Eric Koreen described Siakam as "not untouchable." This season, The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor relayed that the Raptors "have had trade talks with multiple teams" about Siakam.
This isn't working. Not the way either party should want it to, at least. If Siakam isn't itching to get his win-now talents on a team with a chance to actually win now, then Toronto should facilitate that scenery change for him. Both need something the other can't offer.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
5 of 5
The Minnesota Timberwolves took a massive risk last summer in unloading asset upon asset—in total, five players, four first-round picks and a first-round pick swap—to get Rudy Gobert.
They've been counting their losses ever since. That trade was supposed to be the springboard to something greater than last season's playoff appearance. They will, instead, fall short of that group's win total and maybe not even escape the play-in tournament.
Rival teams tracking Minnesota's failure to launch are wondering how this colossal disappointment might impact the franchise's thinking. More specifically, they're wondering aloud whether this will be the proverbial last straw that pushes the Timberwolves toward trading Karl-Anthony Towns.
"Teams are already talking about it," The Athletic's Jon Krawczynski said on the Lowe Post podcast (h/t HoopsHype). "There's no doubt that other teams are eyeing this situation and looking to see if Karl-Anthony Towns will become available."
A Towns trade is arguably overdue. His first seven seasons with the team netted just two playoff berths, neither of which lasted beyond the opening round. There is no reason to believe his eighth NBA go-round will feature his first appearance in the conference semis.
He's an awkward-at-best fit with Gobert. Towns has trouble defending in space, yet those assignments will come his way in bunches as a power forward. Gobert has zero range on the offensive end, which limits Towns' ability to attack off the dribble or post up.
When those two share the floor, Minnesota nets a meager 106.1 points per 100 possessions. For context, this season's worst offense (the Charlotte Hornets) puts up 108.6 points per 100 possessions.
This isn't working. Trading Gobert is theoretically one way out, but the Wolves need assets, and Towns would bring back bunches more, since he's three years younger and far more skilled on offense. This would be an admission of defeat on the Gobert deal, but that's fine.
The most important thing for Minnesota is building the best long-term roster around Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. The haul the Wolves would get for Towns could help make that happen.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference, FiveThirtyEight, Dunks & Threes and NBA.com and accurate through Monday.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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