NCAA Tournament 2023: B/R Expert Predictions for Elite Eight
Nets will be trimmed over the weekend as the 2023 men's NCAA tournament heads into the Elite Eight.
Yes, the primary goal is a national championship. That exciting discussion is right around the corner. For now, though, winning a regional title is the only objective—and four of the eight remaining programs have never accomplished that in March Madness.
The biggest stage is coming. But that spotlight will not arrive without navigating this critical round.
B/R's college basketball crew has a preview of each contest, along with key factors for the programs and an intriguing betting angle for you to consider responsibly.
Games are presented in chronological order.
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 6 Creighton Bluejays
1 of 4
Matchup: No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 6 Creighton (South Regional)
Details: Sunday at 2:20 p.m. ET (CBS), Louisville
One-Sentence Synopsis: Both programs have advanced to the Elite Eight for the first time in their histories, and an exciting season is about to get even better for one of them.
SDSU Wins If: That perimeter defense makes another appearance. Alabama ended a ghastly 3-of-27 from beyond the arc in SDSU's upset victory. Creighton attempts triples at a top-70 rate nationally and generally doesn't crash hard for offensive rebounds. If the Aztecs limit Creighton's three-point production, they'll be in great position to win.
Creighton Wins If: The Bluejays sustain a balanced offensive effort. That may sound obvious, but it nonetheless is reality. Put simply, SDSU is relentless. Creighton must be able to establish Ryan Kalkbrenner's impact early in order to play inside-out and stretch the Aztecs defensively.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Creighton -1.5. Considering the Bluejays are my pick, I'm willing to cede a point instead of taking the moneyline. Famous last words, of course. Kalkbrenner, though, is a tremendous rim protector who can force SDSU into lower-percentage jumpers that it routinely takes but doesn't convert at a high rate. Factor that in with his offensive value, and Creighton is a tough out.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Creighton
Kerry Miller: Creighton
Joel Reuter: San Diego State
No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 2 Texas Longhorns
2 of 4
Matchup: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 2 Texas (Midwest Regional)
Details: Sunday at 5:05 p.m. ET (CBS), Kansas City, Missouri
One-Sentence Synopsis: Two offense-driven teams will square off in a showdown set to either send Miami to its first-ever Final Four or Texas to its second in the modern era.
Miami Wins If: Defensive rotations are quick and effective. As the 'Canes did against Houston, they'll likely collapse on dribble-drives—pack the paint, in other words—because Texas has four players who can create off the bounce. If Miami contains that dangerous group inside the arc, it'll force the Longhorns to lean on their hot-and-cold—and we mean scorching or icy—long-range shooting.
Texas Wins If: The nation's 17th-best transition defense shows up. Led by star guard Isaiah Wong, Miami is deadly on fast-break opportunities. The bright side for the Longhorns is they excelled in this area during victories over Colgate and Penn State, two other terrific teams in transition. The blueprint is there, but will Texas' execution follow suit?
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 150.5. I'm hoping this happens, at least. Miami and Texas have a ton of exciting guards who attack the paint, undersized but bouncy forwards and the potential to catch fire on the perimeter. Strictly from an entertainment perspective, this looks like the most enjoyable game of the Elite Eight slate.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Miami
Kerry Miller: Texas
Joel Reuter: Texas
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No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats
3 of 4
Matchup: No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 3 Kansas State (East Regional)
Details: Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS), New York
One-Sentence Synopsis: Kansas State seeks its first Final Four trip in 59 years, while FAU—which had never won a March Madness game before 2023—aims to continue an unparalleled run.
FAU Wins If: The defense can slow K-State guard Markquis Nowell. Florida Atlantic ranks second nationally with a 34.3 assist rate allowed, but Nowell has racked up 42 helpers—including a tournament-record 19 assists opposite Michigan State—in three NCAA tourney games. Force someone else to create offense, and the 'Cats could be in trouble.
Kansas State Wins If: Depth keeps producing. Star players Nowell and Keyontae Johnson have lived up to their billing, and Nae'Qwan Tomlin has been steady. But four complementary pieces—Desi Sills, David N'Guessan, Cam Carter and Ismael Massoud—have scored 10-plus points in a tournament game. N'Guessan (6'9") and Massoud (6'8") have a notable height advantage over FAU's guard-heavy rotation.
If I Had to Bet on Something (via DraftKings): Under 144.5. Florida Atlantic is willing to push the tempo but toppled both Memphis and Tennessee in slower-paced games. Given that K-State prefers to run, the Owls shouldn't be interested in an up-and-down, back-and-forth matchup.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kansas State
Kerry Miller: Kansas State
Joel Reuter: Kansas State
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No. 4 UConn Huskies vs. No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs
4 of 4
Matchup: No. 4 UConn vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (West Regional)
Details: Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS), Las Vegas
One-Sentence Synopsis: UConn is in a regional final for the first time in nine years, whereas Gonzaga has secured its fifth Elite Eight trip since UConn's last appearance in 2014.
UConn Wins If: Fast-break opportunities and second-chance points aren't overwhelmingly in Gonzaga's favor. If both happen, the Huskies are unlikely to take down the Zags. Through three NCAA games, Gonzaga owns a plus-30 and plus-20 edge against their opponents, respectively, in those categories. UConn doesn't need to win either stat, but an even-ish outcome would be beneficial.
Gonzaga Wins If: The offense scores inside the arc anyway. UConn ranks 16th in two-point defense and 26th in block rate, largely thanks to Donovan Clingan and Adama Sanogo. Gonzaga, however, is third and fourth in the opposing metrics. Although the Zags boast the nation's 11th-best three-point clip, their attempt rate is 308th. Gonzaga will happily feed Drew Timme and Anton Watson, who both shoot 64.7-plus percent on twos and also average 2.4-plus assists.
If I Had to Bet on Something: UConn -2. Gonzaga's defense is suspect, and UConn has a legion of offensive rebounders who also pack a perimeter punch. Combine that with UConn's excellent defense, and the Zags might need a night of incredible shot-making to win. Gonzaga has that kind of talent with Timme and Julian Strawther, but UConn is a more complete team.
Predictions
David Kenyon: UConn
Kerry Miller: UConn
Joel Reuter: UConn
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