2023 NFL Free Agents Who Signed With the Wrong Team
Money is a big factor when NFL free agents are looking for new homes, but it shouldn't be everything.
With most contracts having some kind of out within the first two years, it's important for players to go to a situation that will set them up for their next contract.
While the following guys might have secured a good payday in this cycle, they may have made a choice that will hurt them in the long run. Whether it's a poor scheme fit, a loaded depth chart at their position or a flat-out bad situation, these players would have been better off choosing to go elsewhere in free agency.
WR Mecole Hardman, New York Jets
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After spending the first four years of his career with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, Mecole Hardman will head to the New York Jets.
Coming off injuries in his contract season, Hardman took a one-year deal in a relatively shallow receiver market. He'll have to stand out to earn a multiyear contract in the next cycle, as next year's class could include Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. Any of them would have been the headliner of this year's class.
Hardman is betting on himself to shine in a crowded New York receiver room. The Jets added Allen Lazard to a group that already featured an ascending talent in Garrett Wilson. That's not to mention tight end Tyler Conklin, who drew 87 targets last year, and a strong pass-catching running back in Breece Hall.
Hardman brings a lot of value with his speed. Presumably, he'll play with quarterback Aaron Rodgers if the Jets can figure out trade terms with the Packers.
But the 39-year-old started showing signs of decline last season, especially when it came to pushing the ball downfield. According to Johnny Kinsley's Deep Ball Project, Rodgers was 25th in accuracy on throws of more than 20 air yards.
The Jets traded Elijah Moore to the Cleveland Browns. That frees some touches for Hardman, but he's still going to be the third or fourth option playing with a quarterback who might be losing his touch.
DT Dre'Mont Jones, Seattle Seahawks
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Dre'Mont Jones was awarded one of the biggest defensive line contracts of the cycle, a three-year, $51.5 million deal with the Seattle Seahawks. Only Javon Hargrave scored a higher average annual value than Jones' $17.2 million, per Spotrac.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos gave Zach Allen a similar contract to replace Jones at three years and $47.8 million.
According to Mike Klis of 9News, the Broncos preferred Allen because he is "consistently better against the run." Jones was among the worst run defenders on the interior last season.
The Broncos did a few things that covered up Jones' liabilities against the run. For one, they were in their base defense at the eighth-highest rate in the league, per the 33rd Team. They were also only in dime packages 10 percent of the time. The additional defenders in the box can hide a poor run defender.
They also have a weapon against the run in D.J. Jones. Conversely, the Seahawks were only in their base alignment 27 percent of the time and in dime packages 17 percent of the time, per the 33rd Team. They signed Jarran Reed, another pass-rushing defensive tackle and don't have a comparable defender to D.J. Jones anchoring the run defense.
Jones could have done a better job finding a team that was going to accentuate his strengths as a 3-4 defensive end who can get after the passer.
RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
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The running back market was not kind to players looking for big contracts. That was likely a driving force in Alexander Mattison's decision to take a two-year, $7 million deal to return to the Minnesota Vikings.
But when he looks back on it, he would have been better off taking something like the one-year, $2.8 million pact that Devin Singletary signed with the Houston Texans.
Mattison has played his entire career in the shadow of Dalvin Cook, a four-time Pro Bowler who has taken the lion's share of the carries throughout his career. Mattison is a talented runner but only saw a 21.4 percent opportunity share last season, per Player Profiler.
When Cook has been out of the lineup, Mattison has been a capable starter. In six such games since 2020, he has 477 yards on 117 carries and 23 receptions for 216 yards. Extrapolated to 17 games, that's 1,351 rushing yards with 612 receiving yards.
Had Mattison signed with a team that didn't have a star at his position, he would have had an opportunity to showcase what he could do as a lead back and get a better contract in a year.
Instead, he's tied to the Vikings for another two seasons. If Minnesota winds up moving on from Cook, it's not a bad move, but the team hasn't done so yet even though a pre-June 1 release would save nearly $8 million against the cap.
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WR Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
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For the last three seasons, Jakobi Meyers has been the leading receiver for the New England Patriots. The Pats passing attack hasn't been great, but Meyers was the most targeted and most productive player since 2020.
Working primarily out of the slot, he was a good fit in Bill Belichick's offense.
From that perspective, it makes sense that he chose to go to the Las Vegas Raiders to work under Josh McDaniels again, as the Raiders head coach was his offensive coordinator for three years with the Patriots. Jimmy Garoppolo takes over at quarterback, giving them a passer who also has familiarity with McDaniels. But the setup in Vegas is much different than the one Meyers experienced in New England.
For one, there's already a slot specialist on the roster. Hunter Renfrow ranked 21st in slot snaps last season, while Meyers ranked 16th, per PlayerProfiler.
More importantly, Meyers will play alongside one of the biggest target hogs in the game. Davante Adams is an elite receiver, but that comes with one of the league's biggest workloads. He saw 180 targets in his first season with the Raiders.
The team did trade Darren Waller, but Vegas followed that by signing O.J. Howard and Austin Hooper. The latter is another pass-catcher who lives in the short and intermediate areas of the field.
Meyers should have been looking for a landing spot where he would be a true No. 2 receiver in a good passing attack. Instead, he's in a situation where several receivers succeed in similar areas of the field and there's a dominant No. 1 target in Adams.
CB Patrick Peterson, Pittsburgh Steelers
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By all accounts, Patrick Peterson had an age-defying season with the Minnesota Vikings at 32 years old in 2022. He picked off five throws, held opposing passers to a 79.6 passer rating and had a career-high 66 tackles.
He had a lot of support because the Vikings played a fairly zone-heavy scheme under defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. Peterson thrived in a system that only ran man defenses at the 25th-highest rate in the league, per the 33rd Team.
Donatell was fired and replaced by Brian Flores, who spent last year as a senior defensive assistant/linebackers coach with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Coincidentally, Peterson left for Pittsburgh, which played man at the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Father Time comes for everyone. At one time Peterson was one of the NFL's best corners and it wouldn't matter what scheme he was in.
That time is gone. As his age-33 season approaches, there's a real possibility that Peterson's play is set to fall off a cliff if the Steelers continue to heavily rely on man coverage in their second season under coordinator Teryl Austin.
Even if Peterson couldn't arrange a new contract with Minnesota, it would have been wise to find a scheme that would accommodate him better.
WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
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No one can blame Adam Thielen for taking the three-year, $25 million contract he signed with the Carolina Panthers at 32 years old. The deal has void years that will pay him when he's 37 even though it's highly unlikely he'll still be playing.
That kind of contract for someone his age is a tough sell for most franchises.
But when it was reported the Vikings would cut Thielen, Tom Pelissero of NFL Network also noted the receiver wanted to go to a contender. If that was his goal, he didn't optimize his chances.
Thielen defended his choice in an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show (h/t David Newton of ESPN):
"Honestly, I wasn't planning on going to the Panthers. I went on a visit there just to see what they were about. I wanted to go somewhere I felt had an opportunity to win a Super Bowl. When I sat down with Coach, sat down with the GM ... I felt like Carolina was the place to do that.''
Thielen had 25 million reasons to believe in the vision the Panthers may have pitched him, but it doesn't make it true.
The truth is Thielen is going from a situation where he was playing opposite one of the game's best receivers in Justin Jefferson and a proven NFL quarterback in Kirk Cousins to one with presumably a rookie starting QB and no true No. 1 receiver.
Salary-cap info via Spotrac unless otherwise noted. Stats via Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
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