Biggest Boom-or-Bust Players in the 2023 NFL Draft
There's no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL draft, but there are certainly prospects who have a better chance to thrive at the next level.
While some of the top-rated players are coming off productive collegiate careers and possess skills that generally translate well to the pros, there are also plenty of potential first-round picks who could fail to make a successful leap.
Many of these prospects boast unteachable physical traits and otherworldly athleticism but generally haven't found a way to convert those tools into consistent on-field production.
It's easy to see why teams fall in love with such speculative talents, as they tend to have more potential than anyone else in their class. Drafting them is a high-risk, high-reward move for front offices willing to gamble.
With that in mind, here are the biggest boom-or-bust prospects expected to come off the board early in the 2023 draft:
Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
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Adetomiwa Adebawore had arguably the best combine of any of the 319 prospects who were invited to Indianapolis this year.
The 6'2", 282-pounder ran an incredible 4.49 second 40-yard dash, put up 27 reps on the bench press, leaped 37.5 inches vertically and performed a 10'5" broad jump.
It now remains to be seen if Adebawore can be more than a workout warrior when he gets his chance at the next level, which he certainly will after his showing at the combine.
The 22-year-old was able to do a bit of everything at Northwestern since arriving on campus back in 2019. He finished his career with the Wildcats having notched 97 tackles—including 24.5 for a loss—in addition to 12.5 sacks, six passes defended, four forced fumbles and an interception across 36 games.
Adebawore is far from perfect, however. He hasn't shown the ability to be a strong finisher and lacks the type of flexibility teams want in a pass-rusher. He's easily negated by double teams and has a lot of development to do on his edge-rushing arsenal considering he won't be able to rely on power as much in the NFL.
Adebawore will need to use his world-class athleticism to overcome the limitations of his size and become a force on a professional defensive line. He's also arguably too short to be a traditional edge defender and lacks the mass teams usually want from their interior linemen.
Factor in his limited block-shedding against the run, and it all adds up to Adebawore being both an intriguing and concerning prospect who could as easily become a star as he could quickly flame out of the league.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
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The number of clubs desperate for a franchise quarterback vastly outweighs the number of surefire prospects available in this class. This situation will likely lead to a flawed signal-caller like Kentucky's Will Levis getting drafted early on Day 1.
While Levis isn't a bad prospect by any means, he's far from a slam dunk worth expending a top-10 selection on. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department has him ranked No. 38 overall on their big board.
The 23-year-old became the Wildcats' starter after transferring from Penn State ahead of the 2021 season. He was inconsistent during his 24-game stint in Lexington, flashing immense promise at times but also showing concerning traits in equal measure.
Levis completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 5,232 yards and 43 touchdowns, but he also had 23 interceptions and coughed up four fumbles over the last two seasons. He also fared his best against lower-quality competition, going over 250 yards just once in 16 tries against SEC opponents.
While the Wildcats weren't a great team last year and were forced to lean on Levis' arm to stay in contention, it is worth noting that half of Levis' 10 interceptions in 2022 occurred when his side was tied or leading in the contest.
There's undoubtedly the potential for Levis to develop into an impact player at the next level. He looks the part of a prototypical NFL quarterback—coming in at 6'4", 229 pounds when measured at the combine—and possesses the type of mobility many coaches prefer in their passer these days.
Injuries also limited Levis' effectiveness last season, as he missed time with a shoulder injury and turf toe. Simply getting healthy should improve his game a bit.
It will be interesting to see if Levis can deliver on his promise in the NFL, though. A team will almost surely take a chance on him early, but he'll have to overcome accuracy issues, make significant mechanical improvements and up his ability to feel pressure coming to reach his ceiling.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
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Luke Musgrave is one of the more intriguing tight ends in the 2023 class, but the Oregon State product hasn't been able to put much on tape for teams to go off.
Musgrave arrived in Corvallis back in 2019 but only sparingly saw the field as a freshman. He started to earn more playing time the following year, but only was able to participate in six games during the COVID-shortened campaign.
The big tight end had his best showing in 2021, when he was able to play in 10 contests and tallied 304 yards and a score on 22 catches. That set the stage for a breakout junior year in 2022, but Musgrave went down with a season-ending knee injury just two games into the campaign.
Prior to the injury, Musgrave was dialed in as the Beavers' leading receiver and racked up 11 catches for 169 yards and a touchdown.
Teams will have to trust that limited body of work when rolling the dice on Musgrave's upside.
He appeared fully healthy at the Senior Bowl—grading out as the "best combination of size and speed at the event" after the 6'6", 253-pounder breeched the 20 mph mark at one point—and performed well at the combine, running a 4.61 40-yard dash and jumping 36 inches vertically.
Musgrave is one of the best athletes in this class and has intriguing upside, but his injury history and lack of experience could hurt his ability to make a successful transition at a position that is notoriously difficult to make the jump from college to the pros at.
Whichever team drafts Musgrave will have to be patient while bringing him along, as it could take a while time for him to find his footing in the league and injuries could end up limiting his promising career.
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Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
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Anthony Richardson was the darling of the 2023 combine and seems to have cemented himself as one of the top picks in the upcoming draft because of it.
A fringe first-rounder before that trip to Indy—the Bleacher Report Scouting Department had Richardson ranked No. 31 on their end-of-season big board—there are now suggestions the Carolina Panthers could take him at No. 1 overall after giving up the farm to secure that top position.
Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network recently reported that Carolina is debating between Richardson and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud as its newly acquired selection.
Stroud would be the far safer choice, but Richardson wowed onlookers by running a blistering 4.43-second 40-yard dash and showcasing a 40.5-inch vertical leap while measuring in at 6'4", 244 pounds.
Richardson may have dominated workouts, but his tape is far from flawless.
He only started 13 games for the Gators, taking over the job on a full-time basis at the start of 2022. He completed a mere 53.8 percent of his passes for 2,549 yards and 17 touchdowns against nine interceptions last season.
It appears that Richardson's ability to effortlessly air out passes to receivers way downfield and penchant for ripping off huge gains with his legs—he had multiple 80-yard-plus touchdown runs—will blind a club to his most glaring issues, most notably a concerning inability to make on-target throws with any consistency.
There's a shot Richardson tightens up his mechanics and figures out his accuracy woes in the NFL, but there's a lot of development left that the quarterback will now have to undertake while under the bright spotlight that stems from being an early first-round pick.
Lukas Van Ness, Iowa, Edge
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Lukas Van Ness has rapidly ascended from a backup on Iowa's defensive line to a potential first-round draft pick.
It's been a remarkable rise for a player who never started a single game during his three-year stint in Iowa City. After redshirting in 2020, Van Ness emerged as a playmaker for the Hawkeyes the following year, collecting 33 tackles—8.5 for a loss—and seven sacks.
Despite this promising debut, Van Ness remained a rotational piece this past season. The 21-year-old didn't let that stop him from making an impact when he got on the field, contributing 37 tackles—10.5 for a loss—and six sacks before electing to enter the draft.
Standing a well-built 6'5", 272 pounds—earning him the nickname Hercules from teammates—it's easy to see why teams can project Van Ness dominating for them at the next level. His lack of experience could be an Achilles heel, however, as the Illinois native needs to improve his skills outside of the weight room.
While his power was enough to get past blockers and take down quarterbacks in college, he won't have it nearly as easy against NFL offensive linemen. Van Ness needs to improve his hand usage and closing abilities while adding moves outside the bull rush to his toolbox.
Van Ness is slow at making inside moves and doesn't change direction well. He worked as an interior rusher for the Hawkeyes at times but didn't excel in that role, which will likely lead to him being rather one-dimensional in the pros.
While there's a real chance Van Ness rounds out his game and becomes a major force after being drafted, he still has a long way to go and may need a lot of reps to get there.
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