Teams on Upset Alert in Day 1 of the 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament
The first full day of the 2023 men's NCAA tournament is upon us, and that means a new year of upset possibilities.
The prime candidates for a Cinderella run every season generally live on the Nos. 11, 12 and 13 seed lines, and just last year No. 11 Notre Dame, No. 11 Michigan, No. 11 Iowa State, No. 12 New Mexico State and No. 12 Richmond all survived their first-round matchup, as did No. 15 Saint Peter's in one of the biggest upsets in years.
While all four No. 11 seeds won't be in action until Friday, a pair of No. 12 seeds and a pair of No. 13 seeds have their sights set on a Thursday upset.
Ahead we've highlighted the four higher seeds from those matchups as teams on upset alert, with a breakdown of what the higher seed needs to do to win and what the upset-minded team needs to do to stay alive. We've also included the moneyline as of Thursday morning for each game via DraftKings.
Which programs will survive Thursday's upset watch?
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San Diego State Aztecs (South Region, No. 5 Seed)
1 of 4
Opponent: No. 12 Charleston
Moneyline: San Diego State (-225)
The key to success for San Diego State is to grind the tempo to a halt and use a defense that ranks 10th in KenPom.com's adjusted defensive efficiency to wear down the opposition.
The Aztecs have allowed just 63.6 points per game, and they have gone 18-0 in games they gave up 65 or fewer points, so it's not hard to see that a slow-paced, low-scoring contest is their ideal outcome.
That makes Charleston a less-than-ideal opponent.
The Cougars are 29th in KenPom's adjusted tempo and rank 10th in the nation with 63.1 shot attempts per game, so they're going to want to play an up-and-down game, creating an immediate style clash between the two teams.
The X-factor in this first-round matchup will be whether the deep ball is falling for Charleston in its pursuit of an upset.
The Cougars take a ton of threes—30.2 per game to rank second in the nation—but they shoot just 33.4 percent from deep, and all three of their losses have come in games when they made fewer than nine threes.
Virginia Cavaliers (South Region, No. 4 Seed)
2 of 4
Opponent: No. 13 Furman
Moneyline: Virginia (-240)
Elite defense was the calling card for the Virginia Cavaliers when they claimed back-to-back No. 1 seeds in the 2018 and 2019 NCAA tournaments, winning it all in 2019 while allowing a stingy 56.1 points per contest.
This is not the same Virginia team.
While the Cavs still ranked 24th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, their defense has bent at times, and they are 5-5 in games they allowed more than 65 points. Those losses all came by single digits against quality opponents, but it's a number to keep in mind nonetheless as they begin their NCAA tournament run.
The other number that stands out is a 5-5 record on the road in conference play, including back-to-back losses to North Carolina and Boston College, who both missed the NCAA tournament, in late February.
Will that be enough for Furman to pull off the upset?
The Paladins have an extremely efficient offense, shooting 60.1 percent from inside the arc to lead the nation in that category, and they move the ball well with 17.1 assists per game. Both strengths should bode well against the Virginia defense.
Duke Blue Devils (East Region, No. 5 Seed)
3 of 4
Opponent: No. 12 Oral Roberts
Moneyline: Duke (-265)
The 2022-23 Duke Blue Devils feel like the classic young team that takes some time to jell, only to come together and play its best basketball down the stretch when it matters most.
The nine-man rotation features five freshmen, including Kyle Filipowski, who leads the team in scoring (15.4 PPG) and rebounding (9.0) while playing nearly 30 minutes per game, and high-profile recruits Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead, who have spent much of the year trying to find their footing.
Despite the early growing pains, things are clicking, and the Blue Devils have won nine in a row entering the NCAA tournament, including victories over Miami and Virginia en route to the ACC tournament title.
The lack of tournament experience and inconsistency from some of the team's young players runs in contrast to a No. 12 seed Oral Roberts team that is just two years removed from a surprise run to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed.
Leading scorer Max Abmas (22.2 PPG) was a sophomore and the leading scorer in the nation on that Cinderella team, and he's now joined by 7'5" matchup nightmare Connor Vanover, who averages 12.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game while stretching defenses with his ability to knock down the three.
The Golden Eagles went a perfect 18-0 in conference play and have rolled to a 30-4 record this season, so Duke's momentum will no doubt be put to the test.
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Tennessee Volunteers (No. 4 Seed, East Region)
4 of 4
Opponent: No. 13 Louisiana
Moneyline: Tennessee (-645)
This one is a bit more far-fetched based on that moneyline, but hear me out.
The Tennessee Volunteers had one of the best defenses in the country this season, but they ran into some trouble against teams with a dominant inside presence.
A post player was the opponent's leading scorer in losses to Missouri (Kobe Brown, 21 points), Florida (Colin Castleton, 20 points), Arizona (Azuolas Tubelis, 19 points) and Kentucky (Oscar Tshiebwe, 16 points).
Why is that relevant?
The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns' go-to player on offense is 6'11" forward Jordan Brown, who averaged 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds while shooting 57 percent from the floor. The 2018 5-star recruit began his college career at Nevada and played at Arizona before joining Louisiana last season.
If he can put together a strong game inside, the Ragin' Cajuns will at least have a chance at pulling off the upset.
Recruit rankings via 247Sports' composite list.
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