Projecting Who's Staying and Who's Leaving from UNC After Missing NCAA Tournament

North Carolina hoped to build on a surprise national runner-up finish, but the Tar Heels instead stumbled during the 2022-23 season.

Although star center Armando Bacot had another great year, UNC could not settle its offense. Most glaringly, the Heels lacked a reliable perimeter option and ended with a sub-300 ranking nationally in three-point percentage.

As a result, North Carolina missed the NCAA tournament, with the committee putting the Tar Heels in the first four out.

While the Heels will undoubtedly have incoming talent, there's also a chance the offseason is loaded with turnover.

Who's Staying?

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Puff Johnson

Three players have marquee stay-or-go decisions, but Carolina may only return RJ Davis among them. While he's been a quality player, Davis has routinely served as a tertiary option. He could be the engine of UNC's offense, which NBA teams probably want to see anyway, next season.

Beyond him, the Tar Heels are poised to bring back the entire bench—which is generally promising but requires an asterisk.

Puff Johnson, Seth Trimble and D'Marco Dunn each averaged at least 9.8 minutes as key reserves but combined for under 10 points per game. Freshmen forwards Tyler Nickel and Jalen Washington both held minor roles throughout the season.

Given the relative lack of experience, North Carolina will assuredly be looking for transfers to bolster the returning crowd.

Who's Leaving?

AP Photo/Gerry Broome

Armando Bacot and Leaky Black

North Carolina knows it will be replacing Leaky Black and Pete Nance; both players have used up their eligibility.

Who else might UNC need to replace?

The list begins with Armando Bacot, who seems highly unlikely to forgo the NBA draft again. Caleb Love would probably benefit from another year in college, but our early prediction is Love will not return to Chapel Hill and declare for the draft.

If that all happens, Carolina will be replacing four starters next season. Plus, while we won't project any individual to transfer, the possibility of a portal departure is also worth noting.

Who's on the Way?

"You have to build a team through the transfer portal," UNC coach Hubert Davis recently said on his radio show (h/t Ben Sherman of 247Sports).

While entirely unsurprising, that comment sets a clear expectation.

For now, though, the Heels are ready to add a couple of 4-stars: wing Simeon Wilcher and forward Zayden High. They're 29th and 53rd overall, respectively, in the 2023 cycle, per 247Sports' composite rankings.

An extra situation to monitor is the reclassification of 5-star guard Elliot Cadeau, a commit in the 2024 class. His decision is expected after the Nike Peach Jam in early July, per 247Sports' Dushawn London.

Five-star forward Jarin Stevenson, a top UNC target, also has the potential to reclassify, as he told 247Sports' Travis Branham.