Men's NCAA Bracketology 2023: Real-Time Seed and Region Projections for All 68 Teams

Selection Sunday has finally arrived, and we are ever so close to the bracket for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament.

But what's Selection Sunday without a little last-minute drama that makes us move a couple of teams around.

Houston remains a No. 1 seed in spite of the loss to Memphis, but that AAC title game does bump Memphis up from a No. 9 to a No. 8 and knock Maryland down one spot.

Penn State also threatened to make things even messier than they already are on the No. 8/9 seed lines as far as the Big Ten is concerned, but the Nittany Lions came up just short in the title game against Purdue, so no change there.

And with that, we are finished.

Last Update: FINAL (5:40 p.m. ET Sunday)

Thanks for following along all week. Here's the final product, with a few notes on the Sunday morning scrub and the overall seed list at the bottom

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"Play-In" Games:

No. 11 in Midwest: Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers
No. 11 in East: Vanderbilt vs. Arizona State
No. 16 in East: Howard vs. Southeast Missouri State
No. 16 in South: Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Texas Southern

Bracketing note: Ideally, Purdue as a No. 1 would not be matched up with Illinois as a No. 9. But with four Big Ten teams in the Nos. 8-9 range, it's unavoidable. And it is technically permissible, as Purdue and Illinois only met once during the regular season.

Second bracketing note: The Big Ten is throwing a wrench in everything. Ideally, Penn State would be a No. 9 seed, but with four higher-seeded Big Ten teams already in the No. 8/9 range, the Nittany Lions fall back to a No. 10 seed.

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The Bubble

Last Five In (from safest to least safe): Providence, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Arizona State

First Five Out (from closest to most work to do): NC State, Nevada, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin

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Sunday Morning Scrub

The bracket looks a lot different than it did at the end of the night, but very few seeds actually changed. I simply cleared the deck, if you will, and re-did the bracket with the updated seeds.

Xavier and Indiana Swap at the 3/4 Cut Line—I stared at this one for a long time before finally making the move. The metrics are very similar, and I am well aware that Indiana got the head-to-head win at Xavier in November. But Xavier went 8-6 vs. Quad 1 compared to Indiana's 6-9 record. And though the X-Men have a pair of Quad 2 losses, the 13-7 record against the top two Quads is too good to ignore. Honestly, though, it could be any of Indiana, Tennessee, UConn or Xavier as the last No. 3.

Missouri and Kentucky swap at the 6/7 Cut Line—Kentucky's predictive metrics are much better, but Missouri has the much, much cleaner resume with no losses outside Quad 1. I kind of wanted to make this swap Friday night after Kentucky's loss to Vanderbilt but decided to let it marinate for a day while we waited on the Alabama-Missouri result.

Grand Canyon up from a No. 15 to a No. 14—Honestly, I hadn't even looked at GCU's resume until near the end of its win over Southern Utah, and I just threw it into the same slot where I had the Thunderbirds. But the Antelopes have a better resume, deserving of the bottom No. 14 seed.

And that's it. Scrubbed the bubble, but I'm sticking with Vanderbilt being in the field, against my better judgment. One of those cases where if I'm going to be wrong, I'd rather be wrong with the team I think deserves it (Vanderbilt) as opposed to the team the committee will probably go with for no particularly good reason (NC State or Oklahoma State).

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Seeding by Conference (punched tickets are underlined)

AAC (2): 3. Houston; 30. Memphis

ACC (4): 17. Duke; 18. Virginia; 23. Miami; 43. Pittsburgh

Big 12 (7): 2. Kansas; 5. Texas; 9. Baylor; 11. Kansas State; 16. Iowa State; 19. TCU; 35. West Virginia

Big East (5): 8. Marquette; 12. Xavier; 13. Connecticut; 26. Creighton; 42. Providence

Big Ten (9): 4. Purdue; 14. Indiana; 27. Northwestern; 29. Michigan State; 31. Iowa; 33. Maryland; 34. Illinois; 36. Penn State; 44. Rutgers

MWC (3): 20. San Diego State; 38. Utah State; 40. Boise State

Pac-12 (4): 6. Arizona; 7. UCLA; 39. USC; 46. Arizona State

SEC (9): 1. Alabama; 15. Tennessee; 22. Texas A&M; 24. Missouri; 25. Kentucky; 32. Arkansas; 37. Auburn; 41. Mississippi State; 45. Vanderbilt

WCC (2): 10. Gonzaga; 21. Saint Mary's

The Rest (23): 28. Florida Atlantic; 47. Oral Roberts; 48. Charleston; 49. Drake; 50. VCU; 51. Kent State; 52. Iona; 53. Louisiana; 54. Furman; 55. UC Santa Barbara; 56. Kennesaw State; 57. Princeton; 58. Grand Canyon; 59. Colgate; 60. Vermont; 61. Montana State; 62. UNC-Asheville; 63. Northern Kentucky; 64. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi; 65. Howard; 66. Southeast Missouri State; 67. Texas Southern; 68. Fairleigh Dickinson