Top Teams That Exceeded Expectations in 2022-23 Men's CBB Season

Although many preseason projections are accurate or hold reasonably true, hindsight will provide a number of huge misses in every men's college basketball season.

In 2022-23, for example, Big 12 coaches picked Kansas State to finish last in the conference.

Well, uh, the Wildcats could be a No. 2 seed in March Madness.

That example headlines a group of glaring misperceptions this season. Every team featured landed at fifth or lower in preseason media or coaches polls and, at a minimum, received votes in the latest AP Top 25—with an emphasis on higher-ranked programs.

Purdue Boilermakers

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Zach Edey

Preseason pick: Fifth of 14 teams

The Athletic and the Columbus Dispatch conducted a joint preseason media poll, and Purdue checked in fifth, with in-state rival Indiana as the projected Big Ten champion.

Not bad for Purdue, yet also not great.

Fast-forward four months, and the Boilermakers are on the verge of securing an outright conference title.

Yes, their performance has dipped lately, and I'm the first one to acknowledge concern for March. However, we're still talking about a program that entered the season with modest NCAA tournament expectations—think a seventh seed—and could earn a No. 1 billing.

Star center Zach Edey entered the campaign as a highly respected player, earning a first-team All-Big Ten projection. Still, he's likely to win National Player of the Year honors.

Alabama Crimson Tide

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Nate Oats and Mark Sears

Preseason pick: Fifth of 14 teams

The recent news of Brandon Miller's alleged connection to a killing that police say involved former teammate Darius Miles, who has been charged with capital murder, has understandably overshadowed Alabama's season.

But from an on-court perspective, the Crimson Tide's record has clearly exceeded the SEC media's projections.

Exactly like Purdue, Alabama opened the campaign with a decent forecast that stopped well short of elite status.

Miller and a freshman class full of immediate contributors have propelled the Tide to an SEC crown. They wrapped up the regular-season title with a victory over Auburn on Wednesday. Ohio transfer Mark Sears has played a pivotal role in Bama's success, as well.

Note: Texas A&M, projected sixth, has climbed an equal number of spots. Projected as the fourth-highest SEC team in the latest Bracket Matrix update, the Aggies' rise isn't quite as large, though.

Florida Atlantic Owls

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Alijah Martin

Preseason pick: Fifth of 11 teams

Although coaches in Conference USA pegged four of the five top-performing teams, they had Florida Atlantic at the bottom of that grouping.

It was, apparently, the year of the preseason No. 5 team.

After an early loss at Ole Miss, FAU ripped off 20 straight wins—including a memorable victory at Florida. The Owls have since dropped two games but secured the outright C-USA championship Thursday with a win at Rice.

At this point, the Owls should be invited to the Big Dance even without an automatic bid. Given that 27-win FAU has smashed its previous program record of 21 victories, though, the most fitting conclusion would be cutting down the nets in the conference tournament.

Marquette Golden Eagles

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Oso Ighodaro and Tyler Kolek

Preseason pick: Ninth of 11 teams

Within the Big East, coaches had low expectations for Marquette. Just two teams, Georgetown and DePaul—both correct picks—received fewer voting points than Shaka Smart's squad.

But now nobody can catch the Golden Eagles in the Big East.

Seemingly out of nowhere, Marquette has become a stellar offensive team. Last season's squad ranked 64th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com, but the 2022-23 unit has ascended to fourth. Marquette is fifth nationally in effective field-goal percentage and holds top-30 rankings in both assist rate and turnover rate.

Led by versatile big Oso Ighodaro and key guards Kam Jones and Tyler Kolek, the Golden Eagles are Big East champs and tracking for a top-three seed in March.

Kansas State Wildcats

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Left to right: Keyontae Johnson, Nae'Qwan Tomlin, David N'Guessan and Markquis Nowell

Preseason pick: 10th of 10 teams

Last place? About that.

Kansas State understandably brought up the rear of the coaches' poll. After losing at least 12 Big 12 games in three straight years, the Wildcats shifted from Bruce Weber to first-time college head coach Jerome Tang.

However, they've shattered expectations behind Florida transfer Keyontae Johnson, who's provided an enormous impact in his first season since collapsing during a game in December 2020. Johnson and guard Markquis Nowell have both tallied 16-plus points per game.

Sure, rival Kansas has sealed the Big 12 regular-season title. But the 'Cats have soared from a total afterthought to a top-four conference team and a potential top-three NCAA seed.

Pitt Panthers

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Jamarius Burton

Preseason pick: 14th of 15 teams

Clemson would have merited a nod because of its No. 11 slot in the ACC media poll, but a recent skid has dropped the Tigers to the wrong side of the latest Bracket Matrix projections.

Even if Clemson manages to rejoin the field, though, the clear headliner would be Pitt anyway.

Unlike others included, the Panthers weren't an immediate success. They lost to West Virginia and Michigan in blowouts, dropped another to VCU and fell to mid-tier SEC squad Vanderbilt. Plus, the rout of Northwestern looks terrific in hindsight but didn't seem important then.

But in ACC contests, Pitt has showcased the art of survival with two runs of three straight one-possession wins. Most notably, that collection of six victories included wins over North Carolina (twice), Virginia and Miami.

Although a loss at Notre Dame means Pitt must defeat Miami on the road to claim at least a share of the ACC championship, that the Panthers have a chance for that celebration is incredible.

Northwestern Wildcats

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Ty Berry (left), Boo Buie and Chase Audige

Preseason pick: 13th of 14 teams

What are the limits of ineffective offense and overwhelming defense? Northwestern will be the latest case study.

Yes, the Wildcats are trending in the wrong direction. They've lost three straight games, including a not-very-forgivable setback against Penn State in the home finale. Still a 20-10 record is essentially the exact opposite of Big Ten media's preseason expectation.

Out of 363 teams nationally, Northwestern ranks a ghastly 339th in field-goal percentage. No healthy member of the rotation even shoots better than 35 percent from the perimeter.

But the 'Cats defend at an exceptionally high level.

Because of that tenacious defense—ranked 27th by KenPom—Northwestern has become an NCAA tournament lock. Instead of dwelling in the Big Ten's cellar, NU has a resume with victories over conference champion Purdue and likely top-five NCAA seed Indiana (twice).