Anthony Richardson's Odds to Be Selected No. 1 See Huge Shift Ahead of 2023 NFL Draft

What does Las Vegas know?

When the 2022 college football season concluded, Florida star Anthony Richardson was a significant long shot to go first overall in the 2023 NFL draft. Since then, his odds at DraftKings Sportsbook have been surging.

Richardson is now +750 to be the first player off the board.

Of course, those odds could look laughable when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell takes the stage on April 27.

Malik Willis was projected by some to be a Round 1 and even a top-10 pick in 2022. The former Liberty star fell all the way to the third round, getting selected 86th overall by the Tennessee Titans.

Richardson isn't a carbon copy of Willis, but he might carry a similarly wide variance in terms of his lowest and highest projections in the NFL.

Watch a highlight reel of the 6'4" signal-caller and you'll fall in love. The Cam Newton comparisons are inescapable because he possesses a strong arm and elite mobility.

Unlike Newton, Richardson didn't put up monster numbers in college. In his only full season as a starter, he threw for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions and ran for 654 yards and nine scores.

ESPN's Matt Miller spoke to one NFL general manager who drew a parallel to Josh Allen:

"Allen had this great throw at the combine when he was coming out — it was like a 70-yard bomb — and it kind of made us all sit up and take notice. Richardson will do that, too. And not those fake roll-out throws with tons of momentum. He'll just drop back and chuck it."

Allen is a better analogue for Richardson because he was much more of a theoretical entity following a pretty nondescript run at Wyoming.

Miller highlighted another link between the two:

"Only 69.9% of Richardson's passes were considered "catchable" last season (as tracked by ESPN Stats & Information), which ranked No. 110 among 124 qualified FBS quarterbacks. And 13.2% of his incompletions were thrown to receivers who didn't have a single defender within five yards of them when the pass arrived. That was the ninth-highest rate in 2022."

"The Allen comparisons start coming in here, considering the big-armed, physical signal-caller completed 56.2% of his throws during his years at Wyoming before getting drafted at No. 7 in 2018. And like Allen, scouts believe many of Richardson's issues start with his feet."

It's not as if general managers and talent evaluators are only now talking themselves into quarterbacks with all of the raw tools and a lackluster college pedigree. With Allen's ascension, though, it feels as though NFL teams are convincing themselves, even more, they can follow the Buffalo Bills' blueprint in developing the two-time Pro Bowler — as if it's that simple.

Where Richardson goes in the NFL draft will be far less important than where he lands in the league. Getting the right ecosystem around him will be pivotal to his progression.

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For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.

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