2023 Men's NCAA Tournament: Latest Stock Watch for Bubble Teams
Who's ready for the latest edition of the good, the bad and the ugly performances by teams on the bubble for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament?
This week's good? A lot, actually. We've got five "Stock Up" teams, and that's without including strong wins from Kentucky (at Florida), Penn State (at Ohio State) and West Virginia (vs. Oklahoma State).
It's almost starting to feel like the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds deserve to be in the field now, which hadn't been the case for most of the season.
Still plenty of bad and ugly to discuss, though, which we will get to momentarily.
But first, a note that we're not going to talk about every team on the bubble.
Most notable among the omissions is the North Carolina Tar Heels, whose narrow victory over Notre Dame didn't change anything.
We're more interested in the movers and shakers whose case for a bid has changed considerably over the past few days. (Our last Bubble Stock Watch ran Monday morning, so we'll focus on results since Sunday.)
Teams are presented in no particular order, outside of oscillating between Stock Up and Stock Down.
Stock Up: Texas A&M Aggies
1 of 9
Resume: 21-7, NET: 22, RES: 20.5, QUAL: 21.3
Since Sunday: 68-63 W vs. Tennessee
There have been an unusual number of good wins by bubble teams in the past five days. For a while there, it seemed like there were a half-dozen bad losses/missed opportunities for every good win, but bubble teams have been playing their way into/solidifying their spot in the field as of late.
What a novel concept!
Of the bunch, though, the best win, by far, was Texas A&M knocking off Tennessee in a mighty physical affair.
Predictably, neither defensively elite, offensively mediocre team shot well from the field in a battle featuring a combined 30 turnovers and 42 fouls. But the Aggies took care of business at the free-throw line, where they outscored the Vols 28-10.
Three games ago, A&M was very much on the bubble. However, shooting a combined 63-of-75 (84.0 percent) from the charity stripe played a huge role in their consecutive Quad 1 victories over Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee.
They still have those terrible early-season losses to Murray State and Wofford, but an 8-5 record against the top 1.5 Quads has more than made up for those missteps.
The Aggies probably just need to win one of their final three games (at Mississippi State, at Ole Miss, vs. Alabama) to secure their spot in the field. Although, after just barely missing the cut last year, Buzz Williams and Co. probably won't sleep soundly heading into Selection Sunday no matter what the bracketology community says their fate will be.
Stock Down: New Mexico Lobos
2 of 9
Resume: 19-8, NET: 46, RES: 53.5, QUAL: 66.7
Since Sunday: 82-77 L at Boise State
The Lobos entered this week perilously perched on the bubble.
Because of the stellar true road victories over Saint Mary's and San Diego State, a few bracketologists had New Mexico in the projected field.
But because of the substantially less stellar metrics and the stockpile of bad losses in MWC play to Wyoming (home), UNLV (home), Air Force (road) and Fresno State (road), most bracketologists did not have the Lobos projected for a bid heading into their massive two-game week: at Boise State, vs. San Diego State.
Prior to losing the first of those two games Wednesday night, UNM seemed like it could just about lock up a bid by winning both. Simultaneously, it felt like it could be entering "auto bid or bust" territory by losing both.
So, you know, not a great time for Jamal Mashburn Jr. to snap his streak of 48 consecutive games scoring in double figures.
Usually one of the best mid-range bucket-getters in the nation, Mash couldn't buy one in Boise, shooting 1-of-12 from inside the arc and finishing with just seven points while New Mexico suffered its fifth loss in seven games.
The silver lining: By losing to Boise State and pushing the Broncos more comfortably into the field, it does make UNM's previous win over Boise State look a little stronger. But a win would've been a whole lot better.
Winning the home game against San Diego State this Saturday is now a near-must.
Stock Up: Boise State Broncos
3 of 9
Resume: 22-6, NET: 24, RES: 27.5, QUAL: 37.3
Since Sunday: 82-77 W vs. New Mexico
The flip side of New Mexico's tough loss to Boise State?
It was a huge win for the Broncos, who have cobbled together an almost unimpeachable case for a bid over the past month.
While the Lobos have lost five of eight games since the first meeting, Boise State has gone 7-1, with the lone loss coming in a no-harm-done Quad 1 game at San Diego State.
Better yet, that "neutral-court" win over Texas A&M in Fort Worth has turned into a gold mine, with the Aggies on an absolute tear of late. A month ago, that best win was barely worth mentioning. But after A&M's sweep of Auburn and wins over Tennessee, Arkansas and Missouri, that is a serious bragging right for Boise State.
The Broncos' metrics are fantastic. As of Friday morning, they still only have that one Quad 1 win over Texas A&M. However, the home wins over Utah State (NET No. 34) and Nevada (NET No. 32) and the road win over UNLV (NET No. 85) are each way closer to Quad 1 than Quad 3.
It's a solid collection of victories for a team whose worst losses (vs. South Dakota State; Charlotte on a neutral court) don't look as bad as they used to.
A win at San Jose State on Saturday would likely seal the deal for the Broncos, though subsequent wins over San Diego State or Utah State would really clinch a bid.
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Stock Down: Vanderbilt Commodores
4 of 9
Resume: 15-13, NET: 90, RES: 62.5, QUAL: 86.3
Since Sunday: 84-77 L at LSU
Vanderbilt had an incredible start to February, knocking off Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina and Auburn in succession to get...well, not really onto the bubble, but to get onto the bubble of the bubble.
In other words, no one had the Commodores in their projected field after the win over Auburn this past weekend, but they had officially entered the list of candidates worth considering.
Unfortunately, Vanderbilt took itself right back out of the conversation with a loss to an LSU team that entered Wednesday night on a 14-game losing streak.
Not quite as bad as losing to a team such as Georgetown, Louisville or California, but a devastating blow for a team that had just reentered the fray.
Vandy simply had no answer for KJ Williams, who racked up 35 points and 10 rebounds en route to the sizable upset.
The good news for Vanderbilt is there's still time and opportunity to recover. The Commodores end the regular season against Florida (home), Kentucky (road) and Mississippi State (home), which equates to a pair of Quad 2 games and a top-half-of-Quad-1 game.
If they were to win all three, they'd enter the SEC tournament at 18-13 with four Quad 1 wins and nine (possibly 10, if Georgia improves from NET No. 138 to 135 or better) wins against the top two Quads. And a three-game winning streak would potentially get their RES metrics up into the 45-50 range where just-barely-makes-the-dance teams often dwell.
Even if that happens, though, Vanderbilt would be questionable at best, following that bad loss to LSU.
Stock Up: Wisconsin Badgers
5 of 9
Resume: 16-11, NET: 70, RES: 40.5, QUAL: 58.3
Since Sunday: 64-52 W vs. Iowa
For better or worse, Wisconsin has mastered the art of playing do-si-do with the bubble, going L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W in its last eight games.
And in the Big Ten, they've been able to get away with it, adding two Quad 1 wins, two Quad 2 wins and no losses outside the top 1.5 Quads in the process.
After the most recent win over Iowa, the Badgers own season sweeps of both the Hawkeyes and Penn State, as well as a great road win over Marquette, a solid home win over Maryland and a grand total of 10 wins against the top two Quads.
Their metrics are...not great, especially the NET.
But this resume is beginning to smell an awful lot like what got Rutgers into the tournament last year.
Those Scarlet Knights went 18-13 and finished at 77 in NET, 57.5 in RES and 68.3 in QUAL with five wins against the top half of Quad 1 and nine total wins against Quads 1 and 2. Wisconsin isn't there in terms of upper-echelon wins at just 1-5 vs. Q1A, but it also doesn't have the trio of terrible November losses that Rutgers suffered last year.
The Badgers need to finish strong, though. The season finale at Minnesota is non-negotiable, and at least splitting the two games before then (at Michigan, vs. Purdue) is probably a must. That would get them to six Quad 1 wins, 18-12 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten, if you think that conference record matters in the slightest.
Stock Down: Oklahoma State Cowboys
6 of 9
Resume: 16-12, NET: 41, RES: 45.5, QUAL: 38.3
Since Sunday: 85-67 L at West Virginia
The past three games have not gone according to plan for the Cowboys, to put it lightly.
Not only have they lost all three, but the L's have also gotten quite ugly. They lost by 11 at home against Kansas before dropping back-to-back games at TCU and West Virginia by a combined 43 points.
And the most recent loss to a fellow bubble team (WVU) was the most damning of all.
The good news is they were all top-half-of-Quad 1 results.
Still, what was a strong resume 12 days ago (16-9, NET: 29, RES: 34.5, QUAL: 24.7) has nose-dived onto the bubble ahead of what is still a tough closing stretch.
(What three-game stretch in Big 12 play isn't tough this year, am I right?)
The Cowboys host Kansas State on Saturday and Baylor on Monday before wrapping up the regular season at Texas Tech in what might be a "loser misses the dance" type of bubble game.
Maybe if they beat both the Wildcats and Bears in the next few days, a loss to the Red Raiders wouldn't be a dagger. But after doing nothing worth mentioning in nonconference play—two Q2 losses, a Q3 loss and nothing better than a home win over Sam Houston State—if they go 1-2 to finish the regular season at 17-14, the case for an at-large bid will be a tough sell.
Stock Up: Michigan Wolverines
7 of 9
Resume: 16-12, NET: 53, RES: 58.5, QUAL: 46.7
Since Sunday: 58-45 W at Rutgers
As we clarified with Vanderbilt, "Stock Up" does not necessarily mean "in the projected field." It merely means the team's case for a bid has improved recently.
And in picking up its best win of the season, Michigan has a case that's looking a whole lot better than it did a week ago.
Rutgers has been struggling since losing Mawot Mag to a torn ACL Feb. 4, and that trend continued in a big way in what was almost its worst offensive output of the year Thursday night.
Credit where it's due to the Wolverines defense, though. They racked up 11 steals and five blocks and benefited from the Scarlet Knights shooting a horrendous 5-of-16 from the free-throw line. They capitalized on a team that is falling apart, and it still registers as a fantastic road win.
Michigan previously swept Northwestern, beat Pitt (by 31) on a neutral court and scored home wins over Maryland and Michigan State. That means the Wolverines have six wins over the projected field, and only two losses outside Quad 1.
Granted, one of those losses (at home against Central Michigan) was really, really bad. And they had their full roster for that game, so it's a bit different from Iowa's horrific home loss to Eastern Illinois sans both Kris Murray and Connor McCaffery.
But if they can win two of their final three games (vs. Wisconsin, at Illinois, at Indiana), they will have more than made up for that one terrible night and should be in the tournament.
Stock Down: North Texas Mean Green
8 of 9
Resume: 23-6, NET: 51, RES: 46.0, QUAL: 70.7
Since Sunday: 55-49 L at Charlotte
Taken independently, losing at Charlotte wasn't terrible. That's a Quad 2 outcome against one of the better teams in Conference USA.
But for a North Texas team that had ascended right onto the bubble on the merits of simply not losing in over a month, it was a deal-breaker.
The Mean Green has one Quad 1 win (at UAB) and just two Quad 2 wins (vs. UAB, at Middle Tennessee) in seven total chances against the top two quadrants. And save for a projected C-USA semifinal showdown with UAB, it won't get any other opportunities at a quality win. (Except a possible matchup with Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game, but win that and we don't need to worry about their at-large case anymore.)
UNT also suffered a Quad 3 loss to UNC-Wilmington and a Quad 4 loss to Rice, so the mandate since mid-January has pretty much been "win every game until the C-USA championship and then there might be an argument for a bid."
But, unfortunately, the Mean Green let a six-point lead slip away in the final eight minutes against the 49ers. They have entered "auto bid or bust" territory, barring a complete collapse by basically the entire bubble.
Stock Up: Texas Tech Red Raiders
9 of 9
Resume: 16-12, NET: 48, RES: 60.0, QUAL: 43.0
Since Sunday: 74-63 W at Oklahoma
Again, "Stock Up" doesn't always mean "in the projected field," but Texas Tech sure is surging as we approach the finish line.
The Red Raiders have won four in a row, and all four were Quad 1 wins until the NET refreshed Wednesday morning and Oklahoma dropped to No. 77. But whether it's a low-Quad 1 or a high-Quad 2 result, it was still a big one.
Simply put, they've been a different team with Fardaws Aimaq on the floor.
The transfer from Utah Valley who averaged 16.9 points and 14.2 rebounds over the previous two seasons had missed most of the campaign with a foot injury, but he has been on the floor during this four-game winning streak and gave them 19 points and 10 rebounds against the Sooners.
He has been a difference-maker in the post, and especially in that game, where Texas Tech finished with a plus-16 advantage on the glass.
Is it too little, too late, though?
Texas Tech has no terrible losses, but 5-11 against the top two Quadrants is a tough pill to swallow. Teams sneak in with sub-.500 records against that group all the time, and we did see both Michigan (8-13) and Notre Dame (4-9, which still baffles me to no end) make it at five games below .500 last year.
But Texas Tech will need to go 2-1 down the stretch (vs. TCU, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State) and win a game in the Big 12 tournament (would be in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game against West Virginia based on current standings) in order to match Michigan's eight wins from the top two quadrants from last season.
If the Red Raiders can get to that point, we'll talk. For now, though, they are firmly hovering in the "under consideration" range.
NET and RES/QUAL metrics are current through the start of play on Friday and are courtesy of Bart Torvik.
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