2023 Men's NCAA Tournament: Latest Stock Watch for Bubble Teams
People tried to write Kentucky's obituary after the January home loss to South Carolina and again after the February road loss to Georgia, but the Wildcats just keep picking up huge wins over Tennessee when they need them the most and have moved somewhat comfortably back into the projected field for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament.
And they have been the exception to the rule as of late, as bubble teams playing their way out of the conversation over the past week or two significantly out-number bubble teams playing their way into the field.
We'll cover all that shortly.
But first, a note that we're not going to talk about every single team currently on the bubble.
Most notable among the omissions are USC and Mississippi State, which are in the same place as they were 10 days ago: barely clinging to a spot in the projected field.
We're more interested in the movers and shakers whose case for a bid has changed considerably over the course of their last three games.
Teams are presented in no particular order, outside of oscillating between Stock Up and Stock Down.
NET and RES/QUAL metrics are current through the start of play on Sunday, Feb. 19, and are courtesy of BartTorvik.
Stock Up: Texas A&M Aggies
1 of 11
Resume: 20-7, NET: 29, RES: 26.5, QUAL: 26.3
Last Three Games: W at LSU, W vs. Arkansas, W at Missouri
In the bracketology community, I have been, admittedly, one of Texas A&M's harshest critics.
The metrics have loved the Aggies for a while now, but every time I looked at that resume, all I saw was an 8-5 record against a pathetic nonconference schedule—resulting in no quality wins and terrible Quad 4 losses to Murray State (neutral) and Wofford (home)—and a bloated SEC record devoid of wins over Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky or (until recently) Arkansas.
Basically, yeah, they swept Auburn and Florida, but all that proved was that the Gators don't belong in the tournament and that the Tigers weren't as good as we once believed. (Auburn also has been repeatedly demonstrating that independent of games against A&M.)
But now that Texas A&M has improved to 12-2 in league play with a Quad 1 home win over Arkansas and a Quad 1 road win over Missouri, even I can't poke holes in this resume anymore.
Five Quad 1 wins and seven total wins against the NET top 55 is hard to argue with, especially with just seven total losses on the season. That doesn't erase the two awful losses, but it does counter-balance them enough to push the Aggies into the projected field.
Now, can they hold it together down the stretch?
They have home games remaining against Tennessee and Alabama, as well as road games against Mississippi State and Ole Miss. They should beat the Rebels, but they'll likely be the underdog in the other three games. And if things play to form, they would finish 21-10 overall, 5-7 vs. Quad 1 (with no truly elite wins in the bunch) and 8-8 vs. Quad 1/2 with the two bad losses.
Maybe that's enough to sneak in on this year's bubble, but an early exit from the SEC tournament could leave A&M settling for a No. 1 seed in the NIT for a second consecutive year.
Stock Down: New Mexico Lobos
2 of 11
Resume: 20-7, NET: 48, RES: 50.0, QUAL: 68.7
Last Three Games: L at Air Force, L vs. Wyoming, W at San Jose State
Hard to believe this is the same New Mexico that started out 14-0 with a fantastic road win over Saint Mary's, and the same Lobos team that was 18-2 a month ago following strong victories over San Diego State, Boise State and Oral Roberts.
Since then, UNM is 2-5 overall, and has recently added its two worst losses of the year against Air Force and Wyoming.
The Lobos do have three Quadrant 1 wins. That's a heck of a lot better than fellow bubble teams North Carolina, Utah State, Boise State or Oral Roberts can claim.
But they also have three Quadrant 3 losses and a Quadrant 4 L on a resume that just doesn't pass the smell test anymore.
At full strength, though, this team absolutely passes the eye test. And I do think the selection committee needs to take into consideration the fact that Jaelen House—who averages 16.9 points, 4.6 assists and 2.8 steals per game—was not available for the bad losses to Air Force and Wyoming due to a hamstring injury. That's a huge absence, and an undeniable reason New Mexico fell flat in those losses.
That said, those games did happen. They still count. And they still hurt.
New Mexico is now smack dab on the bubble in advance of a massive week: Wednesday at Boise State; Saturday vs. San Diego State.
Win both of those Quad 1 games and the Lobos will be back in excellent shape for a bid.
Lose both games, though, and it's probably auto bid or bust.
Stock Up: Kentucky Wildcats
3 of 11
Resume: 18-9, NET: 33, RES: 31.0, QUAL: 29.0
Last Three Games: L at Georgia, W at Mississippi State, W vs. Tennessee
It's not easy to improve your NCAA tournament stock while suffering a bad loss to a team with no hope of dancing, but Kentucky found a way.
Much like earlier in the year when they lost at home to South Carolina before winning at Tennessee, the Wildcats bounced back from that short-handed, ugly loss at Georgia with a pair of much-needed Quadrant 1 wins.
The win at Mississippi State was a huge one in a battle between teams who were neck and neck on the bubble heading into that game. Kentucky opened up a big 13-point lead midway through the second half, and then had to hang on for dear life as MSU tried to stage a comeback.
Finishing off the season sweep of Tennessee was even bigger, though, with that game tipping off just moments after the selection committee's top 16 reveal in which Tennessee was No. 9 overall.
They haven't secured a bid just yet, though. With road games still to come against Florida and Arkansas plus home games against Auburn and Vanderbilt, a 2-2 finish (or worse) would keep Kentucky on the bubble heading into the SEC tournament.
Still, the 'Cats went from "probably in the First Four range" before the Georgia game to "likely out" after that loss to now "looking good for a No. 9 or No. 10 seed" after the two most recent wins. (They're still an 11 in the Bracket Matrix, but a lot of those projections were from before the second win over Tennessee.)
What a whirlwind it has been for Big Blue Nation.
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Stock Down: Florida Atlantic Owls and Southern Miss Golden Eagles
4 of 11
Florida Atlantic's Resume: 24-3, NET: 24, RES: 25.5, QUAL: 52.3
Last Three Games: W vs. Rice, W vs. Louisiana Tech, L at Middle Tennessee
Southern Miss' Resume: 24-5, NET: 79, RES: 61.5, QUAL: 104.3
Last Three Games: W vs. Louisiana-Monroe, L at South Alabama, W vs. Georgia Southern
Both of these teams still are the projected champion of their respective conference tournaments. Florida Atlantic should get the Conference USA automatic bid, while Southern Miss ought to secure the Sun Belt's reserved spot in the field.
However, should they slip up in those conference tournaments and need to enter the pool of at-large candidates, their cases for a bid got a lot weaker in the past week.
FAU is still in pretty good shape. The Owls have a pair of Quad 1 wins (at Florida, at North Texas), a trio of Quad 2 wins and an unblemished record against Quads 3 and 4. If they had to lose two conference games, the road games against North Texas, UAB, Charlotte and MTSU were the four somewhat acceptable ones, and that's where the losses came from.
But even with beautiful NET and RES rankings, the margin for error is most likely now gone. If they were to lose any of their four remaining regular-season games, getting the C-USA automatic bid becomes almost non-negotiable.
Meanwhile, Southern Miss was just starting to creep into the "reasonably could receive an at-large bid" range when it got absolutely destroyed in an 85-54 loss at South Alabama. The Golden Eagles had nonconference road wins over Liberty (Q1) and Vanderbilt (Q2) and had steadily crept up into intriguing NET and RES territory.
Now with five losses to teams unlikely to make the tournament, though, the at-large dream should be extinguished. They Would still be a strong No. 12 seed if it secures the auto bid.
Stock Up: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
5 of 11
Resume: 25-4, NET: 45, RES: 67.0, QUAL: 74.0
Last Three Games: W at Western Illinois, W vs. North Dakota, W vs. North Dakota State
While Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss have taken damaging losses recently, it's unclear if Oral Roberts even remembers how to lose.
Since opening the season 3-3 with road losses to Saint Mary's, Houston and Utah State, the Golden Eagles have won 22 out of 23 games, with the lone loss coming on the road against New Mexico in that January game that was added to the schedule just a few days before it was played.
All four of the losses were Quad 1 results. The games against the NET Top 10 Cougars and Gaels fall into the "no one really expected them to win that" category, while the other two were "sure would have been nice to have, but no real harm in dropping that one" outcomes.
The problem, of course, is that there are no Quad 1 wins scattered among those losses.
In fact, Oral Roberts only has one Quad 2 win (vs. Liberty), and its four Quad 3 wins are collectively way closer to Quad 4 than to Quad 2. The Golden Eagles have been beating up on the bad competition for the past few months, and that probably wasn't going to be enough to get Winthrop into the dance in 2021 if it hadn't won the Big South tournament. (The Eagles finished 23-1 with one bad loss and got a No. 12 seed.)
But with Oral Roberts up into the top 50 in both NET and SOR with one of the best nonconference SOS in the nation, it has at least entered the at-large conversation, were it to lose to South Dakota State in the Summit League championship.
Stock Down: North Carolina Tar Heels
6 of 11
Resume: 16-11, NET: 44, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 36.3
Last Three Games: W vs. Clemson, L vs. Miami, L at NC State
It's not impossible to be winless against Quad 1 and still under consideration for an at-large bid. Utah State and Oral Roberts are both 0-4 vs. Quad 1 and just keep hanging around the bubble. Charleston lost its only Quad 1 game (at UNC, interestingly enough) and was a solid at-large candidate prior to losing a pair of Quad 3 games.
But after Sunday's loss at NC State, North Carolina is now winless against Quad 1 despite having as many opportunities as those other three teams combined.
0-9 is just plain hideous. And look no further than 2018-19 Clemson for proof that one big win wouldn't be enough for the Tar Heels to salvage a bid at this point.
Those Tigers went 1-10 vs. Quad 1 and 7-13 overall against the top two Quads (UNC is currently 6-11) and ended up getting a No. 2 seed in the NIT. And Clemson's metrics (NET: 35, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 29.0) were even better than what UNC is bringing to the table these days.)
At a certain point, you actually have to beat quality opponents, and UNC hasn't done that.
Even if they were to go 4-0 the rest of the way against Florida State, Virginia, Notre Dame and Duke, it's still iffy. Finishing 20-11 overall with not a single win away from home worth mentioning (both the UVA and Duke games will be in Chapel Hill) and just an 8-11 record vs. Quad 1/2 is, at best, a First Four resume.
Five losses in the last six games has dropped North Carolina to the chopping block.
The next loss will be the final straw.
Stock Up: Vanderbilt Commodores
7 of 11
Resume: 15-12, NET: 89, RES: 57.0, QUAL: 84.3
Last Three Games: W at Florida, W at South Carolina, W vs. Auburn
As a quick reminder before we dive in here, "Stock Up" doesn't necessarily mean the team in question has moved into the projected field. It merely means the likelihood of them making the tournament has increased considerably in their past three games.
In the case of both Kentucky and Texas A&M, they went from, I don't know, 40 percent to 70 percent.
In the case of this other SEC squad, it's more like an increase from one percent to 25 percent.
But as Jon Rothstein likes to say, Vanderbilt is now "in position to be in position."
Add the wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee to the three listed above and the Commodores are 5-0 in the month of February. They now have four Quad 1 wins, plus a solid home win over Pittsburgh in the top half of Quad 2. They did suffer a dreadful Quad 4 home loss to Grambling State, but that is their only defeat at the hands of a team outside the NET top 85.
Again, they still have quite a bit of work to do, but the remaining schedule is kind of favorable.
Vanderbilt has road games against LSU and Kentucky, as well as home games against Mississippi State and Florida. The game at Rupp is Quad 1 and it's a game we assume the 'Dores will lose. But the other three all currently fall into Quad 2, and they're all winnable.
A 3-1 finish would put them at 18-13 overall with a really nice home win over Tennessee, a 4-8 record vs. Quad 1, a 10-11 record vs. Quad 1/2—or 10-12 if the Quad 3 home loss to Southern Miss improves ever so slightly—with that bad loss to Grambling.
It's not a great resume, but it's about on par with what got Indiana into the dance as a No. 12 seed last year. It would at least put Vanderbilt in the conversation.
Stock Down: Wisconsin Badgers
8 of 11
Resume: 15-11, NET: 76, RES: 46.7, QUAL: 64.7
Last Three Games: L at Nebraska, W vs. Michigan, L vs. Rutgers
Heading into its recent three-game stretch at 14-9 overall with NET and QUAL rankings in the 70 range, Wisconsin was already flirting with disaster.
The Badgers had put together a nice stockpile of quality wins. Road games against Marquette, Iowa, Ohio State and Penn State rank among their five Quad 1 victories and their nine total victories against the top two Quads. And just about every team with at least four Quad 1 wins and eight Quad 1/2 wins is comfortably projected to dance.
But between the constantly slim margins of victory, the sheer volume of losses and the poor showing from an eye-test perspective since mid-December, Wisconsin was an iffy tournament team that has now probably played its way out of the field.
The loss at Nebraska was a brutal one. The Badgers led by 17 early in the second half against a Cornhuskers team down two starters (Juwan Gary and Emmanuel Bandoumel). But Wisconsin completely collapsed, losing in overtime to add yet another Quad 2 L to their resume.
The Badgers did bounce back with a solid home win over Michigan, but the home loss to Rutgers—again, a team down two starters in Caleb McConnell and Mawot Mag—was a dagger. Wisconsin made just four baskets in the final 13 minutes (all of them three-pointers, but still, yikes) of that one-point loss.
If Wisconsin is unable to win the home game against Purdue on March 2, it almost certainly will need to win each of the other three remaining games: vs. Iowa, at Michigan, at Minnesota. Even if the Badgers manage to do that, though, they'll be right on the bubble for a borderline must-win game in either the No. 7 vs. No. 10 or No. 8 vs. No. 9 second-round game of the Big Ten tournament.
Stock Up: North Texas Mean Green
9 of 11
Resume: 23-5, NET: 46, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 68.3
Last Three Games: W vs. Charlotte, W at Louisiana Tech, W at UTEP
Don't look now, but could Conference USA be a three-bid league?
It would have to be a perfect storm of Florida Atlantic, North Texas and UAB going a combined 10-0 down the stretch before conference tournament No. 3 seed UAB knocks off No. 2 North Texas in the semis and No. 1 Florida Atlantic in the championship, but that might do the trick.
On the Mean Green front, they have won eight consecutive games, including sweeping UAB for both a Quad 1 and a Quad 2 victory, In the process, they have climbed up the metrics and have crept into the at-large mix as major-conference teams around the country have fumbled their way out of the conversation.
They do have a pair of Quad 3 losses to UNC-Wilmington and Rice, but neither of those is that bad. And those are the only missteps outside of the loss at Saint Mary's and the season sweep at the hands of FAU, which were all Quad 1 results.
The best comp I can come up with to previous bubble teams is Utah State in 2020-21. The Aggies finished 20-8 with a pair of Quad 1 home wins over San Diego State, a 4-6 record against Quads 1/2 (North Texas is sitting at 3-3 right now) with two not-terrible Quad 3 losses and metrics pretty similar to North Texas'—and they got a straight No. 11 seed, clear of the First Four.
As was the case for USU, though, the conference tournament semifinal might be a de facto play-in game. The 2020-21 Aggies defeated a good Colorado State team in the MWC semis, sending the Rams to the NIT as a No. 1 seed. So North Texas might need to beat UAB to finish the fight.
Stock Down: Clemson Tigers
10 of 11
Resume: 19-8, NET: 80, RES: 66.5, QUAL: 72.7
Last Three Games: L at North Carolina, W vs. Florida State, L at Louisville
Three weeks ago, Clemson was 18-4 overall and in sole possession of first place in the ACC. There were a pair of awful nonconference losses weighing the Tigers down (Loyola-Chicago and South Carolina), but I had them projected for a No. 9 seed on the morning of January 31.
Since then, Clemson has dropped off a cliff.
It started with the bad loss at Boston College. Then came the missed opportunities against Miami and North Carolina.
The final straw was losing to 3-23 Louisville over the weekend.
At this point, there's just no coming back for Clemson.
We previously discussed Texas A&M as a bubble team with five Quad 1 wins and two Quad 4 losses. And if that's a team barely in the field, it's impossible to make the case for Clemson with two Quad 1 wins and three Quad 4 losses.
If the Tigers were to flip a switch and win out from here, maybe there's still a chance. The home games against Syracuse and Notre Dame won't do much of anything to help their case, but road wins over NC State and Virginia would be huge. Based on current NET rankings, both of those would be top half of Quad 1—against which Clemson has yet to play a single game.
Even doing that to get to 23-8 overall would leave Clemson in a "questionable at best" predicament heading into the ACC tournament.
2 Big 12 Ships Passing in the Night
11 of 11
West Virginia's Resume: 15-12, NET: 32, RES: 44.5, QUAL: 31.3
Last Three Games: L at Texas, L at Baylor, L vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech's Resume: 15-12, NET: 54, RES: 64.0, QUAL: 46.7.0
Last Three Games: W vs. Kansas State, W vs. Texas, W at West Virginia
For both of these Big 12 teams, the 4-10 conference record is unsightly.
But conference record doesn't appear on NCAA team sheets or play any factor in the selection process, to feel free to miss me with those complaints.
The actual problem here is the overall 15-12 records.
Even though 19 of those combined 24 losses came against the top half of Quad 1, it's a lot of losses. In Texas Tech's case, the 4-12 record against the top two Quads is a tough pill to swallow.
But the Red Raiders have gotten three of those four wins in the past 10 days, which is indisputable positive momentum in the at-large conversation.
This doesn't put them in the field, though. There's still quite a bit of work to be done for a team who just finally got a win away from home worth mentioning (at West Virginia). A 3-1 finish with home wins over TCU and Oklahoma State and a road win over either Oklahoma or Kansas (preferably Kansas, of course) would make the Red Raiders an intriguing bubble team heading into the Big 12 tournament.
West Virginia, on the other hand, has all of the negative momentum as of late. The Mountaineers were decimated at Texas by a 34-point margin prior to subsequent losses to Baylor and Texas Tech.
Before that three-game losing streak, I felt that WVU would get into the tournament with a 3-4 finish. And the most likely path to that was home wins over Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas State surrounded by road losses to the four best teams in the league.
Now that the Mountaineers have lost to the Red Raiders, however, they, too, might need a 3-1 finish, which would mean a road win over either Kansas or Iowa State.
West Virginia does still have the better resume, and by a pretty clear margin. But what was once a Grand Canyon between the two teams has shrunk to the size of a large pothole.
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