What to Watch for in Each Conference in Last Full Weekend of Men's CBB Regular Season
The first conference tournament games for the 2022-23 men's college basketball season will begin Monday.
This is not a drill, people.
March is almost here.
And while the NCAA tournament selection committee values quality wins in early November just the same as quality wins in late February, the games certainly feel more important now that we have a much better sense of what is at stake for every team.
With that in mind, we've inspected the Friday through Sunday slate of more than 175 games for the biggest storylines on what is the final full weekend of the regular season.
(However, consider yourself forewarned that next weekend will be even more chaotic, with 15 of the 32 leagues in "conference tournament" mode while the others polish off their regular-season schedules. If you think March Madness doesn't begin until Selection Sunday, it's time to reassess.)
We've got one big (and one less big) storyline for each of the six major conferences, most of them focusing on NCAA tournament implications. The major conferences are presented in alphabetical order, followed by some mid-major love.
ACC: Can North Carolina Salvage This Disaster of a Season?
1 of 8
You may have heard a few hundred times over the past three months—and especially over the past few weeks—that things have not gone according to plan for the No. 1 team in the preseason AP poll.
North Carolina has been a mess, notably sitting at 0-9 in the all-important Quad 1 opportunities.
But because the Tar Heels have yet to lose a game against an opponent that has no realistic hope of earning an at-large bid, they could still play their way into the dance with a strong finish.
They have a home game against Virginia (6 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN) for what could be their first Quad 1 win. After that, a road game against Florida State before the season finale at home against Duke, which would also be a Quad 1 outcome based on current NET rankings.
They need all three, though, and I'm not even sure that would be enough for a bid, considering their only win over a legitimate at-large candidate was a home victory against NC State.
A win over Virginia would at least keep things interesting for UNC, though, and at least the Tar Heels should be healthier than they were in the first matchup with the Cavaliers. Pete Nance missed that game, and they lost Armando Bacot to an ankle injury less than two minutes into the first half. Somehow, they still gave Virginia a battle, losing by just seven in Charlottesville.
And while most of the focus will be on UNC, Virginia hasn't picked up a Quad 1 win since November and just suffered a terrible loss to Boston College. The Cavaliers aren't as desperate for a win as the Heels are, but, man, it'd sure be nice to see this potential NCAA tournament No. 4 seed look good for a change.
ACC Storyline No. 2: Could Clemson sneak back into the at-large mix? Last Saturday's loss to Louisville was a potential back-breaker, but a win at NC State (Noon ET Saturday on ACC Network) could be huge—especially if the Tigers follow it up with a Tuesday road win over Virginia. As things stand, though, Clemson is nowhere close to the field.
Big 12: Does Texas Tech Pull Off Another Big Win?
2 of 8
Just two short weeks ago, Texas Tech was 12-12 with one measly win against the top two Quads—a home game against Iowa State, in which it needed overtime to even pull off that miracle.
Despite reasonably solid metrics, the Red Raiders were deader than dead from a bracketology point of view.
But then they got a Quad 1 win.
And another.
And another.
And another.
Four straight victories over Kansas State, Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma and, all of a sudden, TTU is this year's zombie bubble team, making a late-season surge back into the at-large conversation.
The Red Raiders are clearly still on the wrong side of the bubble, but a home win over TCU (noon ET Saturday on ESPN2) would make their case a whole lot more interesting heading into the home stretch.
In the first meeting in Fort Worth, Texas Tech led by 13 in the first half and by nine points with 10 minutes remaining in regulation, but the Red Raiders imploded in the game's final "quarter" in what was their first of eight consecutive losses.
Now that they actually know they can close games against quality opponents, perhaps they'll have their revenge in Lubbock.
Big 12 Storyline No. 2: Can Texas win at Baylor (2 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN) to remain in the hunt for both a Big 12 regular-season title and an NCAA tournament No. 1 seed?
Big East: Is Villanova Back?
3 of 8
I won't waste your time hypothesizing about Villanova's at-large prospects. The Wildcats are 14-14 and would need to win their next three (vs. Creighton, at Seton Hall, vs. Connecticut) before we can even begin to consider putting them in the projected field.
But with the way the team has been playing since getting Justin Moore back from the torn Achilles he suffered in the 2022 Elite Eight, would it be that surprising if Villanova won those three games and/or the Big East tournament?
The Wildcats are merely 4-4 in those eight games at full strength. However, they almost won the home game against Providence (down one with the ball in the final minute). They almost won at Marquette (up four with six minutes remaining). They almost won at Creighton (up one with 30 seconds remaining). And they did win at Xavier (with 25 points from Moore).
This is unquestionably a different, better team than it was a month ago, and building on that win over the Musketeers with a victory over Creighton (noon ET Saturday on Fox) would be further evidence of a team hitting its stride at the right time.
Meanwhile, this is a big one for Creighton if it is to avoid possibly slipping to the No. 4 seed for the Big East tournament, which would most likely mean a quarterfinals matchup with No. 5 seed Connecticut.
Big East Storyline No. 2: Since joining the Big East in 2005-06, Marquette has earned a share of just one conference title, splitting with Georgetown and Louisville in 2012-13. But with a win over DePaul (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on FS1), the Golden Eagles would lock up at least a share of this year's crown—and figures to win it outright next week against either Butler or St. John's.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
Big Ten: Does Indiana Bounce Back Once Again for a Big Win over Purdue?
4 of 8
Before the first matchup between these fierce Big Ten rivals, Indiana laid an egg in a loss at Maryland. The Hoosiers scored just 55 points in that one, getting next to nothing out of players not named Trayce Jackson-Davis.
But they turned around and looked doggone great in a 79-74 win over then-No. 1 Purdue.
After a 15-point road loss to Michigan State on Tuesday night, are the Hoosiers setting up a similar formula for the rematch (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on Fox)?
Our official stance is: Don't bet on it.
It's one thing to knock off Purdue on your home court. In Big Ten play, the Boilermakers are 5-3 in true road games with an overall scoring margin of eight points. In Mackey Arena, however, they have been a force of nature, sitting at 7-1 with a scoring margin of 116 points in league play.
And it's not like Indiana did anything to neutralize Zach Edey in the first game. The big man had 33 points, 18 rebounds, three blocks and two assists in yet another NPOY-worthy performance. It's just that the Hoosiers' freshman point guard, Jalen Hood-Schifino, was drastically more productive than Purdue's freshman point guard, Braden Smith, which will likely be a different story in West Lafayette.
If the Hoosiers pull off the upset, though, it will probably knock Purdue off the No. 1-seed line and open the door for Indiana to potentially grab a No. 3 seed.
Big Ten Storyline No. 2: Fresh off a solid home win over Iowa, can Wisconsin get a road victory over Michigan (2 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS) to solidify its spot in the projected NCAA tournament field? Or does Michigan—fresh off a great road win over Rutgers—knock off the Badgers to further improve its suddenly intriguing case for a bid?
Pac-12: Big Road Tests for the 2 Bubble Teams
5 of 8
The Pac-12 is a two-bid league (Arizona and UCLA) with two other teams (Arizona State and USC) in a position to potentially make things a little less embarrassing for the conference by earning an at-large bid.
The Trojans are in marginally better shape than the Sun Devils, but they each have a brutal Quad 4 loss, a combined 10 losses to teams not projected to dance (four by USC; six by ASU) and just not that many wins worth mentioning.
Arizona State beat Creighton on a neutral court, but that is its only win against the projected field. (And the Bluejays didn't have Ryan Kalkbrenner for that game.) USC has home wins over UCLA and Auburn, but the list of achievements gets weak in a hurry from there.
Translation: They both desperately could use a Quad 1 win.
Of the duo, Arizona State has the much bigger opportunity at its doorstep, playing at Arizona (2 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS). The Sun Devils will subsequently wrap up the regular season with road games against UCLA and USC in what is the most opportunistic stretch possible in the Pac-12 this season. Steal two out of three, and ASU becomes a very intriguing bubble candidate.
USC plays at Utah (8 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPNU) in what feels like more of a must-win than a major opportunity. Like the Sun Devils, the Trojans probably need to finish 2-1 to remain in good shape for a bid, and they close with home games against Arizona and Arizona State. Drop this one against the Utes and they'll need to play their way back into the picture.
Pac-12 Storyline No. 2: Can UCLA add a Quad 1 win over Colorado (4 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS) to enhance its case for leapfrogging Arizona in the projected-seed pecking order? The following weekend's head-to-head showdown—and the likely Pac-12 championship matchup—will play much bigger roles in settling that debate, but never squander the opportunity for a solid-looking road win.
SEC: Can Kentucky Lock Up a Bid?
6 of 8
For all the time we spent obsessing over the possibility that Kentucky might miss the NCAA tournament, the Wildcats are one win away from effectively clinching their spot in the field.
Perhaps that win will come at home against Auburn (4 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS)?
The Wildcats certainly have the momentum edge in that matchup following three straight Quad 1 wins over Mississippi State, Tennessee and Florida.
They've been playing without both CJ Fredrick (ribs) and Sahvir Wheeler (ankle/foot) for a while, but freshman Chris Livingston has taken a huge step forward in their absence. He has posted eight consecutive contests with an O-rating of 110 or better, which is a mark he hit just seven times in Kentucky's first 13 games. And his emergence has had a "missing piece of the puzzle" impact on this team.
If Kentucky does get the bid-clinching win, are we really sure Auburn is destined for the dance?
The Tigers are 19-9 with games remaining at Kentucky, at Alabama and vs. Tennessee. You don't exactly need to squint to see them entering the SEC tournament at 19-12 overall with nothing to their credit better than an ugly neutral-site victory over Northwestern and a few home wins over Arkansas, Missouri and Mississippi State.
It's probably enough, because the metrics are solid and because they've only suffered one loss outside the top 1.5 Quads (A Q3 L at Georgia). But losing all three would mean going 3-9 in their final 12 regular-season games. An immediate loss to a bottom-four team in the SEC tournament could be problematic.
SEC Storyline No. 2: After needing overtime to survive at South Carolina on Wednesday night, can Alabama reassert its dominance and its claim to the No. 1 overall seed with a home win over Arkansas? Or was that close call against the Gamecocks the beginning of the off-court situation derailing what has been the best on-court season in program history?
The 3 (Not-So-Mid) Mid-Major Leagues
7 of 8
American Athletic: Must-Win for Memphis (2 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
Memphis has spent basically the entire season on the NCAA tournament bubble, and unless the Tigers win a game against Houston—either next Sunday at home or the following Sunday in the projected AAC title game—they must take care of business against the rest of the league. That means a home win over Cincinnati, which has already swept UCF this month and appears to be playing its best basketball of the season.
Mountain West: Aztecs Visit the Pit (10 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS Sports Network)
New Mexico has lost five of its last seven games and is sinking like a stone in both the metrics and bracket projections. The Lobos need a "stop the bleeding" win, and a home victory over San Diego State would fit the bill. They got a combined 51 points from Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. in winning at SDSU in mid-January, and that backcourt duo might need a repeat performance if it is to avoid having the Pit host an NIT game.
West Coast: Round No. 2 of Saint Mary's-Gonzaga (10 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN)
The first meeting went to overtime, with the Gaels eking out a home win in Moraga. Can they waltz into Spokane and become just the second WCC team to sweep Gonzaga in Mark Few's darn near quarter century at the helm (Saint Mary's did it in 2015-16), or will Gonzaga earn at least a share of the WCC regular-season crown for the 22nd time in 23 years?
Noteworthy Happenings in Other Leagues
8 of 8
Sun Belt Champ to Be Crowned
For this league, the regular season ends Friday night, with 13-4 Marshall playing at Old Dominion (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and 13-4 Southern Miss playing at Texas State (8 p.m. ET on ESPN+). To earn the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament, USM needs to win and needs Marshall to lose. But even if they both win and the Golden Eagles settle for a share of the crown, what an improbable journey to 25 regular-season wins that would be for a team that had won 24 in the past three seasons combined.
Fly, Eagles, Fly
Two remaining teams are undefeated in league play: Oral Roberts at 17-0 in the Summit League and Eastern Washington at 16-0 in the Big Sky. For each team, though, the final hurdle will be one of the toughest. The Golden Eagles play at South Dakota State (3 p.m. ET Saturday) while the Eagles still have a road game against Idaho State (8 p.m. ET Saturday) and a home game against Montana State (9 p.m. ET Monday) standing in their path to perfection.
A Fitting Finish in the Valley
Both Drake and Bradley are 15-4 atop the Missouri Valley standings, but no need to worry about tiebreaking scenarios here. They'll settle it on Bradley's floor (4 p.m. ET Sunday on ESPN2). Of course, being the No. 1 seed for Arch Madness isn't all it's cracked up to be, with the league's top team winning just two of the past eight conference tournaments—Loyola-Chicago in both 2018 and 2021.
Antoine Davis' Final Regular-Season Game
This story hasn't gotten anywhere near the national attention it deserves while Detroit Mercy has sputtered through yet another sub-.500 campaign, but Davis sits just 97 points behind Pistol Pete Maravich on the all-time scoring leaderboard.
He and the Titans will host Wright State (1 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+) in a game they need to win in order to face basement-dwelling Green Bay or IUPUI in the first round of the Horizon League tournament. That would be huge, as it would presumably result in at least one additional game for Davis to try to catch Maravich.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
