Dangerous Teams with Most Cinderella Potential in 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament
Although most early upsets in the men's NCAA tournament end as a one-and-done memory, the hope for a Cinderella story is always present at the outset of March Madness.
Lately, the clock hasn't struck midnight so quickly.
In 2021, 15th-seeded Oral Roberts knocked off Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16. Last year, Saint Peter's cracked the Elite Eight after victories over Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, becoming the first-ever No. 15 seed to advance that far.
That recent trend sets the stage for 2023, a year in which another round of underdogs will be aiming to make history.
For our purposes, a potential Cinderella team is a projected No. 11 seed or worse in the Bracket Matrix update on Feb. 21 and isn't a high-major program such as Kentucky or USC.
Charleston Cougars
1 of 6
Projected Seed: 12
Charleston is, in a word, relentless.
Not only do the Cougars roll out a 10-man rotation, they constantly attack the glass. Nine of those players—nine!—average at least one offensive rebound per game despite four being listed at 6'5" or shorter. They're also an adequate 74th in offensive rebound rate allowed.
The challenge is that size differential can hurt Charleston on the defensive end. Opponents shoot 49.5 percent inside the arc, including 60.4 percent at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com.
Depending on how the bracket falls, though, the Cougars may avoid a problematic size matchup anyway.
Given that six players have contributed 9.3-12.8 points per game, Charleston has a wide variety of options who can capitalize on those second-chance opportunities.
Kent State Golden Flashes
2 of 6
Projected Seed: 12
Defense, defense and a little more defense. Those are the main appeals about Kent State.
Malique Jacobs is second nationally with 3.0 steals per game, while each of Sincere Carry, Miyrne Thomas and Giovanni Santiago are averaging at least one. Unsurprisingly, the Golden Flashes are 15th nationwide in opponent turnover rate.
Kent State is also 30th in two-point shooting percentage allowed and 55th in three-point shooting percentage allowed. St. Mary's, a potential top-five seed, is the lone mid-major program with a higher KenPom ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency than the Flashes.
Does Kent State have enough offense to make a deep run? No, it does not.
But to navigate the opening weekend, Kent State can rely heavily on its lockdown defense—one that facilitated some competitive early losses to Houston (49-44) and Gonzaga (73-66).
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
3 of 6
Projected Seed: 12
Two years ago, Oral Roberts rode Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor to a shocking Sweet 16 trip. The team finished just 13-10 in the regular season but pulled off a Summit League tournament title before upending Ohio State and Florida in the Big Dance.
Fast-forward to today, and Abmas remains Oral Roberts' leading scorer. But the Golden Eagles won't be sneaking up on anyone this year.
ORU is currently 25-4, including a perfect 16-0 mark in conference games. Abmas has poured in 22.8 points per game, while Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover has provided 12.4 points and 3.4 blocks.
Along with Abmas, Issac McBride and Kareem Thompson headline a rotation loaded with capable shooters that rank 30th nationally in three-point shooting percentage. Eight players are hoisting at least 1.5 triples per game, and five of them are connecting at a 38.4 percent clip or better.
In case it wasn't clear, offense is ORU's strength. If the Golden Eagles get hot, good luck slowing them down.
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Liberty Flames
4 of 6
Projected Seed: 13
During the last decade, Virginia has become a prominent program based on a mix of three-point efficiency and stout defense.
About 65 miles southwest of UVA, you'll find a comparable style.
Led by 22-point scorer Darius McGhee, Liberty lives on the perimeter, crashes the boards and plays slowly. The team is second nationally in three-point attempt rate and connects at the 27th-best clip, first in offensive rebound rate allowed and 317th in tempo, per KenPom.
McGhee launches 11 threes per game and hits them at a 41.3 percent clip, while both Colin Porter and Brody Peebles are above 40 percent with three-plus long-range attempts. Porter, Kyle Rode and McGhee each average 2.7-plus assists as well.
Liberty probably can't afford to lose the perimeter battle, but the Flames will be dangerous if that long-range strength appears in March.
Iona Gaels
5 of 6
Projected Seed: 14
Last season, the MAAC tourney winner made the Elite Eight. And it wasn't even the program that was expected to emerge from the league.
No, the Cinderella run from Saint Peter's happened partly because Rider stunned top-seeded Iona in the conference quarterfinals. Iona, led by former Louisville coach Rick Pitino, had finished 17-3 in league play.
Can the Gaels sidestep a repeat loss in the MAAC tournament?
Once again, Iona is the class of the MAAC. The squad is 13-3 in conference games and 20-7 overall, leaning on a defense that ranks 12th in opponent three-point percentage and fifth in block rate. While the Gaels aren't a prolific offensive team, they're 20th in turnover rate, so opponents have precious few transition opportunities.
Iona must be nearly perfect on defense to compete, but the Gaels have showed that ability since Christmas.
Eastern Washington Eagles
6 of 6
Projected Seed: 15
Since both the 2021 and 2022 tournaments had a No. 15 seed reach the second weekend, we have to include one, right?
Eastern Washington has a whole lot of on-paper appeal.
While the Eagles rank 342nd in the percentage of their shots that are two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math, they rank third in field-goal percentage on them. They're also 27th with a 65.3 clip on shots at the rim, and they're 40th in three-point attempt rate.
The ball is constantly moving to create those high-percentage looks. Tyreese Davis and Angelo Allegri are both averaging three-plus assists, and four others are at 1.3 or higher.
As if that's not enough, EWU is 17th in total rebound rate and 91st in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Each member of the rotation is listed at 6'5" or taller.
Entering the final week of its regular season, Eastern Washington holds a 15-0 record in Big Sky competition. As long as the Eagles successfully navigate the Big Sky tournament, they could be a legitimate threat to pull off a March Madness upset or two.
Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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