Jalen Carter Is Right Choice for Chicago Bears at No. 1, If Team Doesn't Trade Pick
The Chicago Bears' best path forward with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft may be simply applying Occam's razor, standing pat and selecting a unique talent in Georgia's Jalen Carter.
Yes, interest should be forthcoming from suitors looking to trade up for the top pick and acquire the quarterback of their choice. At the same time, the Bears' reciprocation depends on the potential return, how far they'll be forced to drop and whether they want to make the move at all.
The Bears must internally decide what they're willing to entertain as it pertains to trade offers. They shouldn't move out of the top five altogether, because they'll run the risk of missing out on the class' elite talents. Even if they want to move down but stay in the top five, it's possible the Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 pick) and Seattle Seahawks (No. 5) aren't willing to pay a premium to move up to No. 1.
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If Chicago moves down, it will do so knowing it could miss out on its primary target. A move to No. 4 in a smaller swap with the Colts still places the Arizona Cardinals between the Bears and their preferred defensive prospect, assuming the Houston Texans take a quarterback.
Quality over quantity comes into the play with this decision. If the Bears have multiple options with identical grades, general manager Ryan Poles should make a deal.
In this year's class, Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. and Carter are clearly the two highest-graded prospects. To be transparent, Bleacher Report's Scouting Department has Anderson graded ever-so-slightly above Carter as the class' No. 1-ranked prospect, regardless of position. The difference is almost negligible and is due, in part, to positional value.
But the possibility of drafting one over the other may flip traditional thinking. Two factors work in Carter's favor.
First, he's a rare talent among interior defenders. Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson is the last defensive tackle to become the top overall selection. During the 28 draft classes since that point, only eight heard their names called among the initial five picks. Ndamukong Suh had been the best of the bunch during the aforementioned stretch.
Overall, the value of big-time defensive tackles decreased, primarily because so few are true three-down defenders. As the game became geared toward faster, spread offenses with a heavy emphasis on passing games, the need to get massive tackles went out of fashion, unless they could consistently apply pressure and collapse the pocket. Those options have been limited, though.
Carter is different.
While trends are tilting back in favor of those bigger and stronger defensive tackles to help offset more man-gap blocking principles, the unanimous All-American brings a rare skill set for a 6'3", 310-pound defender.
"Holy s--t! This 88 jumps off the tape," a veteran line coach told The Athletic's Bruce Feldman last winter. "I think he is the best one in the front. He is so big but so quick-twitch. He has an uncanny ability to redirect and [he has] really good balance."
As Pro Football Focus noted, Carter earned the highest overall grade of any Power Five defender last season. The defensive tackle became the only one at his position to fetch 90-plus grades (out of 100) in both run defense and pass rush.
The two-time national champion is the complete package with no glaring holes in his game.
"Unlike a lot of defensive tackles who have a specialty, the Florida native is about as versatile as they come," Bleacher Report scout Matt Holder wrote. "He's quick and athletic to make offensive linemen miss as a run defender and has plenty of strength to hold up against and shed one-on-one blocks. As a pass-rusher, he can win with power using a bull rush or push-pull move or around the edges with finesse moves."
Maybe the most impressive aspect of Carter's skill set is it stood out even on arguably the best defense in college football history. The 2021 Bulldogs D featured eight players who heard their names called in last year's draft. Six of those—including No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker and Outland Trophy winner Jordan Davis—played among the squad's front seven.
"Eighty-eight's initial quickness is ridiculous," a rival coach told Feldman.
"We knew Jordan [Davis] was a good player, but everybody circles 88 as the game-wrecker," an SEC offensive line coach added.
The ability to consistently win one-on-one matches, thus preventing quarterbacks from stepping up in the pocket, is truly rare. While edge-rushers tend to be more valuable overall, the number of dominant defensive tackles is far fewer.
The incoming class represents that reality. It's littered with edge defenders of all shapes and sizes capable of providing some punch to the pass rush, either as eventual full-time starters or sub-package options. As examples, Eastern Michigan's Jose Ramirez and Wisconsin's Nick Herbig led the nation by averaging a sack per game this past season, yet they're not even considered first-round options.
Like Carter, Anderson is special. An argument in favor of Carter is not meant to belittle his counterpart's standing. It's simply a decision based on how a team prefers to build its roster.
Bears head coach Matt Eberflus came from the Indianapolis Colts, where his system benefited from one of the game's top 3-techniques in DeForest Buckner.
Last season, 13 NFL edge-rushers had 10-plus sacks compared to six defensive tackles. It was even more imbalanced the previous year, with a 15-to-2 advantage for edge-rushers in the category of 10-plus sacks.
Obviously, an organization wants talented pass-rushers wherever they can get them and obtain as many as possible. Of the two, game-changers along the interior are simply more difficult to find. When things are considered equal with a premium talent on the line, scarcity often dictates the direction.
Carter can terrorize quarterbacks as the focal point of Eberflus' scheme while the organization builds around him and quarterback Justin Fields. The alternative is trading down and adding more assets yet likely missing out on this year's unicorn.
Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski.
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