2023 NFL Free Agency: Ideal Scenarios for Top Fantasy Football Performers
In the NFL, there really is no offseason. No sooner does the Super Bowl end than teams turn the page to the following season. To improving their team. To franchise tags. And the NFL Scouting Combine. And to free agency.
In many respects, fantasy football is no different. Dynasty formats mimic the NFL. As soon as 2022 ended, 2023 began—and with it the quest to get better for the season to come. But even in redraft fantasy leagues, the best fantasy managers know there's always work to be done. Research. The kind of preparation that leads to successful drafts and winning teams.
One of the first big steps of the offseason is the movement of veteran players via free agency, and this year's class isn't short on fantasy-relevant talent—including a loaded group of running backs that includes the NFL's leading rusher in 2022.
Every one of those players has a best-case scenario for their fantasy value. An ideal situation, whether it's moving on to a new team or staying put and getting help around them.
Here's what they are for the biggest fantasy free agents in 2023.
Lamar Jackson: Get the Man Some Help
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Let's get one thing clear right off the jump. There may be rumors that the Baltimore Ravens would at least consider trading Lamar Jackson if the right offer came along, but the odds that a "Godfather" offer good enough to actually make that happen is going to materialize aren't good.
MVP quarterbacks just don't get traded. Jackson is likely going to get the franchise tag. A long-term extension could follow in short order.
The question isn't so much where fantasy's sixth-ranked quarterback will play in 2023. It's what the Ravens will do around him.
Per ESPN's Jamison Hensley, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta admitted that Jackson's looming extension makes adding skill position talent around him more challenging.
"Honestly, when you have a big-ticket item at quarterback, it makes it more challenging—not impossible," DeCosta said. "We'll have to get creative, and there are things we can do. There are a lot of different ways to go about constructing the team and finding players and affording players and various things like that. But we've got to be really creative."
DeCosta needs to put his thinking cap on, though. Because while the addition of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken might be a plus, the Ravens have to add passing-game weapons around their star quarterback, whether it's via free agency or the draft.
We've seen what Jackson is capable of as a passer—back in that MVP season of 2019, Jackson led the league with 36 touchdown passes.
If Jackson is going to reclaim his status as one of fantasy's truly elite quarterbacks, upgraded talent around him is every bit as important as Jackson not missing over a month of the season for a third straight year.
Geno Smith: If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It
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Raise your hand if you thought heading into the 2022 season that Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks would finish the year sixth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points.
Now either put your hand down or buy some Powerball tickets. Because you're either lying or can see into the future—no one expected Smith to rank eighth in passing yards and fourth in touchdown passes.
The 32-year-old Smith made himself a lot of money with last year's breakout, and he told reporters at the Pro Bowl that he and the Seahawks are already working on a contract extension.
"We've had talks, and we're in the process of getting all that settled right now," Smith said. "It's looking very good. We think we can get some things done, but obviously those things take time. This is the process that I hate about the NFL because I just want to play football, but it's a business as well, so we've got to take care of business and then we'll get back to the football."
That's a good thing—because even if you think that last year's performance will be difficult to repeat, it can't be argued that Smith's best chances of doing so lies in the Emerald City.
In Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, the Seahawks possess one of the NFL's better one-two punches at the wide receiver position. Seattle's offensive line had an up-and-down season, but the team's young tackles impressed at times. And Smith knows Shane Waldron's offense inside and out.
Assuming Smith stays put in 2023, he has the makings of an interesting later-round option for fantasy managers who favor waiting to draft a quarterback.
Josh Jacobs: A Change of Scenery
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Like most of the players in this column, Josh Jacobs of the Raiders is coming off a stellar season—the 25-year-old led the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards in 2022 and finished the year third in PPR points among running backs.
While speaking to reporters at the Pro Bowl, Jacobs said that his desire is to remain in Las Vegas—provided the money's right.
"I'm not going to lie; this is where I want to be," Jacobs said. "I've grown a fanbase here. I'm deep into this organization. I've broke records, and I've built a home here. This is where I want to be, but at the same time, it's gotta make sense. I'm not going to let them come in and disrespect me or anything like that."
Jacobs later told ProFootballTalk he'd be open to playing under the franchise tag if the team added significant help on offense, but from a fantasy perspective, a change of scenery would probably be the best thing for his fantasy value.
Backing up last year's numbers already wasn't going to be easy—Jacobs piled up a whopping 393 touches in 2022, putting him in the crosshairs of the "Curse of 370." Now, after the release of Derek Carr, the Raiders also have a massive question mark hanging over the quarterback position. And a defense that ranked 28th in the league a year ago.
The Raiders don't have the look of a team that's going to see the sorts of positive game scripts that lend themselves to success running the ball. And all that uncertainty makes Jacobs a dicey RB1 pick if (as expected) he remains in Sin City.
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Saquon Barkley: Run It Back—and Get Better Around Him
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For the first time in a long time, we were reminded in 2022 what Saquon Barkley is capable of on the football field.
For the first time since his transcendent rookie season, Barkley played in 16 games a year ago. He carried the ball a career-high 295 times, averaged 4.4 yards per carry, eclipsed 1,600 total yards and finished the year fifth in PPR fantasy points among running backs.
Now, however, the Giants face a dilemma. After making the playoffs in 2022, the Giants enter the offseason with both Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones about to hit free agency. Per Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News, the NFL's all-time leading rusher believes retaining Barkley has to be one of New York's top priorities.
"If they don't bring him back, shame on them," Emmitt Smith said. "Daniel Jones cannot be Daniel Jones without Saquon. And that team cannot be what it is without Saquon doing what he did this year. What you saw is a guy that's healthy can do a lot of great things. It would be foolish of the Giants to let Saquon go."
There's been no indication that the Giants have any intention of letting Barkley walk—the only question is whether both he and Jones get long-term deals or one gets the franchise tag.
Fantasy-wise, the best-case scenario is simple—re-sign both Barkley and Jones in the most cap-friendly manner as possible for 2023. The Giants have $46.9 million in cap space, but tagging Jones would wipe out most of it. That money would be better spent on upgrading one of the weakest pass-catching corps in the league.
If Barkley's going to crack the top five again and live up to what will likely be a first-round price tag in 2023, it would help if he wasn't facing stacked boxes all game every game.
Tony Pollard: His Turn to Be 'The Man'
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Tony Pollard had himself a year in 2022. For the first time in his career, the four-year veteran surpassed 1,000 yards on the ground. Pollard averaged over five yards a carry, caught 39 passes, found the end zone a dozen times and finished seventh in PPR points among running backs.
Granted, the season ended on a sour note when Pollard suffered a high ankle sprain and fractured fibula in the Cowboys' playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers. But Pollard still established himself as a valuable part of the Dallas offense—so much so that ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported the Cowboys are prepared to use the franchise tag on Pollard if player and team can't come to terms on an extension.
That's all well and good, but for Pollard's fantasy value to really take off, one more thing has to happen.
Ezekiel Elliott has to go.
As is seemingly the case every year, Dallas is up against the salary cap in 2023—per Over the Cap, the Cowboys are actually about $7 million in the red. After failing to average four yards per carry for the first time in his career, Elliott's $16.7 million cap hit for 2023 isn't easy to justify, and releasing him (with a post-June 1 designation) could save Dallas almost $11 million.
For all his struggles, Elliott still amassed almost 250 total touches in 2022. All those touches wouldn't go to Pollard, but he'd still see a hefty bump in workload.
If Pollard could come close to last year's per-touch effectiveness with that increased workload, he could challenge to be fantasy football's highest-scoring running back.
Miles Sanders: Taking his Talents to South Beach
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In 2022, Miles Sanders became the first Eagles running back since LeSean McCoy in 2014 to top 1,000 yards on the ground. Sanders has averaged five yards per carry over his four seasons in Philly. He was a top-15 fantasy option a year ago.
And if his usage in Super Bowl LVII was any indication, there is a zero percent chance he will be returning to the Eagles in 2023. Sanders had just seven carries for 16 yards against the Chiefs, and with a massive extension for Jalen Hurts looming, Philadelphia can't afford to spend on a running back—not with an inexpensive player already on the roster in Kenneth Gainwell.
There are a few potential suitors for Sanders in free agency, but as Michael Fabiano wrote for Sports Illustrated, the Miami Dolphins stand out as an option that would appeal to fantasy managers.
"The Dolphins could have a gaping hole in the backfield—Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Salvon Ahmed (RFA) and Myles Gaskin are all slated to be free agents," he said. "If the team decides to go the free-agent route, Sanders could become an option. While he had only 20 catches a season ago, he did catch 50 balls as a rookie and could be used as a three-down back in what will remain a high-powered offense."
Fitting Sanders under the cap would take some doing—the Dolphins are upside-down to the tune of $16.4 million. But there isn't another team that offers a clearer path to 200-plus carries on a potent offense.
Plus sunshine, sandy beaches and no state income tax.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: There's No Place Like Home
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It's not a good year to be looking for wide receiver help in free agency. There isn't a single wideout who ranked in the top 25 in PPR fantasy points who will be hitting the open market this spring.
The highest-ranking receiver who will be in search of a new contract is JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is fresh off winning a Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs. The 26-year-old Smith-Schuster tallied 78 catches for 933 yards and three scores after signing a one-year "prove it" deal with the Chiefs a year ago, and while speaking to reporters at the Super Bowl, Smith-Schuster said that provided the price is right, he'd just as soon stay right where he's at in 2023.
"Yeah, that would be nice," Smith-Schuster said. "You get to play with Patrick Mahomes. He's signed here for another 10 years, so that's nice. You also get the opportunity to play with a good group of guys like Travis Kelce. We've got a young defense. It just all goes hand in hand and everything works out."
Frankly, Smith-Schuster's best bet for individual and team success likely lies in staying put—even if he has to accept a little less coin to do so. And fantasy managers should hope that he does.
Sure, Smith-Schuster would potentially be the No. 1 receiver in New England. Or New York. Or Chicago. In Kansas City, he's at best the No. 2 option in the passing game.
But Smith-Schuster is better suited to a complementary role at this point in his career. And there's quite a bit of difference in catching passes from Mac Jones and Patrick Mahomes.
Jakobi Meyers: Anywhere But Here
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The New England Patriots have had more success turning undrafted free agents into quality starters than any team in the NFL in recent years. Jakobi Meyers is just one example—the converted quarterback has paced the team in receiving yards in three straight seasons, drawing the praise of head coach Bill Belichick along the way.
"He's come through for us in a lot of big situations," Belichick told reporters in January. "But his progression has been a pretty steady incline since he got here coming out of college at N.C. State, after he converted from quarterback to receiver. He just works hard, keeps grinding, keeps getting better."
Now, Meyers is one of the top free agents available at his position. And for fantasy managers, the best thing that could happen for Meyers is to sign just about anywhere that isn't New England.
Meyers has indeed led the Patriots in receiving in each of the past three seasons. But he has caught 70-plus passes just once in four years. He has never tallied even 900 receiving yards in a season. He has just eight touchdowns in four campaigns. And Meyers has never been even a top-30 fantasy option.
It's not a matter of talent. The Patriots just don't have enough passing volume. Last year, the Pats were 22nd in pass attempts. The year before that, they were 26th.
Unless Meyers signs with a team that throws the ball more, he's never going to be more than a so-so WR3. But on a team like the Giants, he could conceivably crack the top 20.
Evan Engram: Duval Do-Over
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Prior to 2022, Evan Engram's career had been a tale of unfulfilled expectations. Sure, there had been flashes, but Engram had much more potential than production.
In 2022, though, it all came together. In his first season with the Jaguars, Engram set career highs in both receptions (73) and receiving yards (766) on the way to a fifth-place finish among tight ends in PPR points.
In his season-ending press conference, Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke made it clear that re-signing Engram is a priority for Jacksonville in the offseason.
"Obviously, we would love to have Evan back," he said. "Evan and I visited yesterday, and he went around the building and visited with everybody. I think it's mutual. Now we got to make it happen. That's something that we're going to work on with Evan, and all the other free agents that we have. We have a list of them that we got to mow down one at a time."
It's a signing that makes a lot of sense for player, team—and fantasy managers. Fresh off an AFC South title and playoff win, the Jaguars are an ascending young team led by a star in the making in quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Engram played an important role last season on an offense that could be among the league's best for years to come.
Engram's fantasy value can only go down if he switches teams. Luckily, with a reasonable franchise tag for tight ends of $11.3 million, he probably won't be in 2023.
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