B/R Staff Roundtable: NBA Title Picks If Playoffs Started Today
The dust has mostly settled on the trade deadline. And with the exception of a few more potential buyout candidates, we now know what the rosters of the league's contenders will look like from here on out.
The Phoenix Suns went from floundering to bona fide contenders by acquiring Kevin Durant. Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks may now have the league's most explosive offensive duo, thanks to the Kyrie Irving trade. Finally, the Boston Celtics added some size and shooting in Mike Muscala. And Jae Crowder is now a Milwaukee Buck.
The list could go on, but suffice to say, just about every contender and fringe contender loaded up for the stretch run.
But what if that run was eliminated and we simply started the postseason today? Which two teams would meet in the Finals? And who would prevail there?
Takes on both of the above questions can be found below.
Nuggets vs. Bucks
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The last four MVPs have been won by a pair of European big men named Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić. If Basketball Reference's MVP Tracker ("based on a model built using previous voting results") is to be trusted, that number is about to move to five, with Jokić securing his third straight. Both are in or nearing their respective primes. It's not at all difficult to make the case that they're the two best basketball players in the world.
So, if the playoffs started today, with both superstars surrounded by generally healthy supporting casts, it makes sense to expect them to meet in the Finals.
Once there, one of the league's best starting fives (Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Jokić have the highest total plus-minus in the NBA) and a bench recently refreshed by Thomas Bryant and Reggie Jackson (who plans to sign there upon clearing waivers) will help Jokić, the soon-to-be-three-time MVP, win his first title.
Champion: Nuggets
Suns vs. Celtics
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There's some prisoner-of-the-moment thinking at work here, but how could anyone bet against Kevin Durant and Devin Booker posing problems no playoff defense in the West can solve? Sure, health, depth and the worries attached to depending on Deandre Ayton to anchor the interior should give us pause, but...Book and KD!
The Celtics side of this prediction is easier. They were two wins away from winning the whole thing a year ago, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are flanked by defenders and shooters galore, and Boston is currently the only team with top-five rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Every indicator screams this is the Celtics' year.
In the end, we'll give the 'chip to Boston. The Suns will make the Celtics work, and it'll take a true "this guy has arrived" series from Tatum to put his team over the top. Consider this a bet that he has it in him.
Champion: Celtics
Nuggets vs. Celtics
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While the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers won't go down easily, the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks are the class of the East. The Celtics will return to the NBA Finals after surviving a monster Eastern Conference Finals performance from Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Meanwhile, the Western Conference is wide open. The Phoenix Suns, despite the addition of Kevin Durant at the trade deadline, will fall to Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets' run ultimately falls short, with the Celtics earning their 18th title, retaking their lead over the Los Angeles Lakers. Jayson Tatum wins NBA Finals Most Valuable Player.
Champion: Celtics
Bucks vs. Suns
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In what would be their second Finals meeting in three years, this version of Bucks vs. Suns would feel quite different.
Adding Kevin Durant to a core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton should make Phoenix the team to beat in the West, provided all four stars are healthy, of course. There's enough supporting help (T.J. Warren, Terrence Ross, Darius Bazley, Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, Damion Lee, Bismack Biyombo, etc.) to fill in shooting and defensive needs around Durant and company as well.
Milwaukee is the hottest team in all of basketball, winners of 10 in a row and the new home of Jae Crowder, who looks to seek revenge on the Suns. Khris Middleton is returning to form (18.6 points on 50.7 percent shooting over his last five games), and the Bucks still arguably have the best Big Three in basketball with him and 2023 All-Stars Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
A championship clash of Antetokounmpo vs. Durant could be a battle between the two best players in the NBA, ones who already have a combined three Finals MVP awards between them.
Given the amount of experience the Bucks have together and their presumed home-court advantage in the Finals, they come out on top against Phoenix once again.
Champion: Bucks
Nuggets vs. Bucks
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A Nuggets-Bucks NBA Finals culminating in a Denver banner was my preseason prediction and…I'm sticking to it.
I'm tempted to tweak the outcome in favor of Milwaukee, which has been on an absolute heater recently. Giannis Antetokounmpo's efficiency is climbing, Khris Middleton is both more available and looking closer to himself, and the Bucks have nuked opponents during the (limited) stints in which their Big Three takes the floor.
Still, I can't shake this feeling that the Nuggets have playoff-proofed themselves. The defense is hovering around league average and has been much better for a chunk of the year. Certain teams will be able to surgically hunt Denver in the half-court, but it has enough sturdy stoppers in Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown to shape-shift and tailor its lineups to what it needs.
Oh, the Nuggets also have a potentially soon-to-be reigning three-time MVP dominating at the peak of his powers, and a version of Jamal Murray that has tilted closer to All-Star over the past month. So, yeah, Nuggets in seven.
Champion: Nuggets
Final Votes
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Western Conference Champion
Denver Nuggets: 3
Phoenix Suns: 2
Eastern Conference Champion
Milwaukee Bucks: 3
Boston Celtics: 2
NBA Champion
Denver Nuggets: 2
Boston Celtics: 2
Milwaukee Bucks: 1
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