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Gator Bowl Preview: Ohio State and Florida

David ThurmanJun 7, 2018
Dave Thurman (7:28 pm)

A pair of high profile programs head to Jacksonville, Florida, to compete in the Gator Bowl, both mired in the midst of a 6-6 season.  While Ohio State is hoping to close out a tough season on a positive note before moving into the Urban Meyer era, Florida is attempting to lay the foundation for a better 2012 for new coach Will Muschamp.  Both teams are a long way from where they were five short years ago when they met for the BCS National Championship, but while the game lacks the hype it did in 2006, it could be a very interesting contest. 

Since January 1, 1992, Florida and Ohio State have appeared in the most January bowl games, with the Gators having been in 19 in the past 20 years, with the Buckeyes right on their heels with 18.  So both teams are more than accustomed to having the spotlight, and playing in big games.  While this one may not have all of the fanfare they are used to, it is another chance for OSU to play an SEC team in a bowl game, something that has been a source of frustration in the past.  Until last year's Sugar Bowl win over Arkansas (officially vacated), the Buckeyes were 0-9 in bowl games versus the big boys from the Southeastern Conference.  Hopefully, 2012 will see the second straight victory after nine straight defeats.

When Florida has the ball:

This is not the same Florida offense that has terrorized opponents for the past decade, primarily due to a mediocre passing offense.  Ranking 87th in the nation at 204.3 ypg, the Gators have neither a big time quarterback nor their usual fleet of swift receivers.  At quarterback is senior John Brantley who has struggled under the weight of following Tim Tebow.  This year he has hit 59% of his passes, throwing for 1912 yards with 10 tds and 6 ints.  Freshmen Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel have both seen time as reserves, and while each has potential, they have struggled this season. 

Although Florida has not torn it up on the ground (144 ypg), they do have a couple of explosive running backs, in speedy Chris Rainey (790 yards, 5.1 ypc) and Jeff Demps (539 yards, 5.9 ypc).  Neither is big or strong, and it would be a surprise if either approaches 20 carries.  While I would be surprised to see Rainey or Demps move the team consistently up and down the field, both are capable of striking with a big play at any time.  Rainey also led the team with 28 receptions for 350 yards, so he must be watched coming out of the backfield.  Fullback Trey Burton is a decent blocker who runs the ball a couple times a game and has hauled in 19 passes himself.

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As mentioned, the Gators lack a marquee receiver, starting fleet Andre Dubose (15, 423, 4) and solid Deonte Thompson (19, 237, 0), who is more of a possession receiver.  The bigger threat is tight end Jordan Reed, a sophomore who resembles Jake Stoneburner in size and ability, and caught 28 passes for 307 yards despite missing three games.  Look for the Gators to try and exploit Reed when matched up with a linebacker. 

The offensive line is pretty average, which is no surprise considering the fact that Florida averaged 334.2 ypg and 25.6 points per contest.  It is a rather smallish group by 21st century standards with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, and features only one senior. Guard Jon Halapio is the biggest of the lot and probably the most consistent.  Look for Ohio State's defensive line to try and disrupt the Gator attack by overwhelming a very average unit. 

When Ohio State has the ball:

How much has Braxton Miller and his young receiving corps benefited from December practices?  That may be the single biggest key to this contest.  A Buckeye offense that struggled all season showed signs of life in the season finale versus Michigan, but goes against a very good Florida defense in this one.  Ranking 9th in the nation in total defense, the Gators surrender a mere 299.6 yards per game, though a lack of forcing turnovers caused them to give up 20.6 points per contest, which finished 25th in the country. 

Once again Florida attacks with a fine defensive line, although it lacks the kind of speed at end we are used to seeing.  In the middle of the line are a couple of huge veterans in Jaye Howard and Omar Hunter, and they will attempt to stop a pretty potent Buckeye rushing attack.  Howard is the star of the group, boasting 60 tackles, with 8.5 for loss, and 4 sacks.  Sharrif Floyd, a name familiar to Ohio State recruiting enthusiasts, is one of the defensive ends, and shows signs that he is about to become a big time player.  Overall they will attempt to get pressure on Miller, and improve upon their somewhat disappointing total of 22 sacks.

The Gators linebacking group is led by junior Jonathan Bostic who leads the team with 86 tackles. He has nice size (6'3" 243) and is a physical player.  Outside backers Lerentee McCray and Jelani Jenkins also possess nice size and speed, with Jenkins third on the squad in tackles.  This is a nice group that should be busy as Ohio State seeks to establish a strong running game.  I had hoped that Jake Stoneburner might be employed more often in this contest to put added pressure on the linebackers, but recovering from an injury, it appears Jake will play a limited number of snaps. 

In the secondary, Florida has plenty of speed, with safety Matt Elam also possessing playmaking skills.  He comes into the bowl game with 72 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, 6 pass breakups and a forced fumble.  Surprisingly neither of the starting corners, both sophomores, picked off a pass this year, but both were solid in coverage.  However, nickel back Pop Saunders did intercept a couple of passes, and will be on the field in passing situations.  While this group is very good, only giving up 167.2 ypg through the air, they only picked off eight passes, as the Gators forced but 12 total turnovers all year. 

With no apparent weakness, the Florida defense gives the Buckeyes no clear cut advantage, doing a solid job against both the pass and the run.  Obviously, OSU will try and establish a rushing attack, while placing the game squarely on the young shoulders of Braxton Miller, hoping he can use his legs and arm effectively.  It would seem that he will need to convert first downs with draws and scrambles if the Buckeyes are to move the chains consistently.

Dave's Wildcards:

With two evenly matched teams, intangibles will probably hold the key.  Watch for the following:

-Bowl Lethargy: Nobody ever knows for sure what six weeks of inactivity will do to a team.  Oftentimes, it takes a while to shake off the rust, and many times a team looks very different than they did through the regular season.  Neither team is likely to be as motivated as if they were playing in a marquee matchup, so it bears watching to see who comes out sharp and focused.

-Coaching Flux: Will Ohio State play with emotion to give Luke Fickell a big win in his final game as head coach?  Will they want to send Jim Heacock and Jim Bollman out as winners?  Or will they be looking ahead to the Urban era, and lack enthusiasm and passion?  I'm interested to find some answers to these questions. 

-Special Teams Speed: Florida has some fine special teams.  Although their punters have not posted great numbers, kicker Caleb Sturgis excelled, making 21-25 field goals including three from 50 yards or further.  However, the real fear for Ohio State is the Gator speed in the return game, as both Rainey (punt return) and Demps (kick return) took one to the house in 2011.  And, Florida blocked four punts this year, which could also spell trouble for Ohio State.  In a close game special teams are huge, and both teams have good units.  Still, I fear the Florida speed. 

-Trick Plays: Both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for this game and may unveil some new formations and even a couple of flea flickers.  It is always interesting to see what the coaching staffs have up their sleeves.  One wonders if the ultra-conservative Bollman will pull a rabbit or two our of his hat in his OSU swan song. 

Score Prediction:

Dave:
Florida 27, OSU 24
Drew: OSU 30, Florida 20
Chapman's Game-Saving Play 😱

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