2023 Men's NCAA Tournament: Latest Stock Watch for Bubble Teams
After playing for a national championship 10 months ago and opening this season at No. 1 in the AP poll three months ago, are the North Carolina Tar Heels even going to make the 2023 NCAA tournament?
There are a ton of bubble teams on serious hot streaks or losing skids over the past couple of weeks, but none more noteworthy than UNC, which has lost all three games played thus far in February.
How bad has it gotten for the Tar Heels, and what do they need to do down the stretch to salvage a bid?
We'll cover all that shortly.
But first, a note that we're not going to talk about every single team currently on the bubble.
Most notable among the omissions is Kentucky, which is in the exact same place that it was three weeks ago: barely clinging to a spot in the projected field.
We're more interested in the movers and shakers whose case for a bid has changed considerably over the course of their last five games.
Teams are presented in no particular order, outside of oscillating between Stock Up and Stock Down.
NET and RES/QUAL metrics are current through the start of play on Thursday, Feb. 9, and are courtesy of BartTorvik.
Stock Up: Texas A&M Aggies
1 of 10
Current Resume: 17-7, NET: 37, RES: 48.0, QUAL: 34.0, Second Team Out in Bracket Matrix
Five Most Recent Games: W at Auburn, W vs. Vanderbilt, L at Arkansas, W vs. Georgia, W vs. Auburn
Six weeks ago, Texas A&M wasn't even a blip on the at-large radar.
The Aggies' nonconference slate was an outright disaster, suffering losses to Murray State (neutral) and Wofford (home), which are both Quadrant 4 losses now. And as far as quality wins go, there was nothing. The best thing this team did in November and December was a road win over DePaul. That's a Quadrant 3 win; everything else was Quadrant 4.
Even after starting out 5-0 in SEC play, A&M was a bubble afterthought. Sweeping Florida was nice. The home win over Missouri was solid. But in the quest to make up for nonconference play, it was like trying to put out a raging inferno with a thimble of water.
Now that the Aggies have also added a sweep of Auburn, though, things are suddenly looking bubble-y in College Station.
A&M is now 2-4 vs. Quadrant 1 and owns a total of five wins over teams in the NET top 50. I've long maintained a rule of thumb that it takes three good wins (or maybe one great win and one good win) to make up for one awful loss, and the Aggies have a much more respectable 5-2 ratio in that department.
They need at least one more big win, though, and with home games remaining against Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama, the opportunity is certainly there. If they go 1-2 in those games, they probably also need to go 3-1 in the road games against LSU, Missouri, Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
Do that, and there's a good chance the Aggies would be narrowly in the projected field heading into the SEC tournament.
Stock Down: Auburn Tigers
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Current Resume: 17-7, NET: 32, RES: 25.0, QUAL: 26.3, No. 7 seed in Bracket Matrix
Five Most Recent Games: L vs. Texas A&M, L at West Virginia, W vs. Georgia, L at Tennessee, L at Texas A&M
Because of those aforementioned losses to Texas A&M, things have gotten dicey for Auburn.
Less than three weeks ago, the Tigers were in the projected field without any argument. They were 16-3 overall without any truly bad losses and ranked in the top 25 of all six metrics that appear on the team sheets. They were a solid No. 5 seed, knocking on the door of a No. 4 seed.
But after four losses in the span of five games, Auburn's resume has come under much more scrutiny, leaving all of us to wonder how the metrics got so good in the first place.
Auburn's best wins of the season were a home victory over Arkansas right as the Razorbacks were starting to implode and a hideous 43-42 win over bubble-y Northwestern on a neutral court.
Less than two weeks ago, the Tigers had not played a single game against the top half of Quadrant 1. And though all three of those road games came right down to the wire, they are now 0-3 against that group and 1-5 overall against Quadrant 1.
The metrics still love Auburn, and this team would surely make the cut if the NCAA tournament started today. However, with two games remaining against Alabama, a home game against Tennessee and a road game against Kentucky, the Tigers are going to need at least one big win down the stretch to remain in the field, lest they become an 11-loss team with no marquee victories.
Stock Up: Creighton Bluejays
3 of 10
Current Resume: 16-8, NET: 15, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 9.7, No. 7 seed in Bracket Matrix
Five Most Recent Games: W vs. St. John's, W vs. Xavier, W at Georgetown, W vs. Villanova, W at Seton Hall
Creighton has now won seven in a row and 10 of its last 12, with the two losses during that stretch coming on the road against Connecticut and Xavier—forgivable outcomes, to be sure.
As a result of their convincing win at Seton Hall Wednesday night, the Bluejays are now up into the top 10 on KenPom and are certainly starting to feel like a lock to at least make the NCAA tournament.
It was just four games ago, however, that Creighton was very much on the bubble, boasting just one Quadrant 1 win (over Arkansas in Maui) with three not-great losses to Nebraska, BYU and Arizona State.
At the time, the Bluejays were a little bit higher than 50 in the RES metrics, which is typically a solid indicator of a team that is barely on the wrong side of the bubble. (Right now, Clemson, Mississippi State and Wake Forest are at 51, 53 and 56, respectively, in the RES metrics.)
After beating Xavier by 17 and Seton Hall by 13, though, things are looking much, much better for Creighton.
Can't call this team a lock just yet, however.
Though they have been red-hot as of late, it's plausible the Bluejays lose to Connecticut this Saturday, lose at Providence on Valentine's Day and lose the home game against Marquette on Feb. 21. Even if they get a win at St. John's along the way, that would put them at 17-11 overall in advance of a major "You better not screw up" closing stretch against Villanova, Georgetown and DePaul.
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Stock Down: North Carolina Tar Heels
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Current Resume: 15-9, NET: 45, RES: 45.5, QUAL: 35.7, No. 10 seed in Bracket Matrix
Five Most Recent Games: W vs. NC State, W at Syracuse, L vs. Pittsburgh, L at Duke, L at Wake Forest
The similarities to last season are getting eerie for North Carolina.
Pittsburgh is nowhere near as bad as it was a year ago, but losing at home to Pitt in mid-February 2022 was when we started to really question whether the Tar Heels would make the NCAA tournament. That same result was cause for concern once again this February.
For the second straight year, UNC also looked broken on offense in the first game against Duke and put forth a horrific effort on defense in the loss at Wake Forest.
North Carolina is now 1-8 against Quadrant 1, with that one win coming in overtime against an Ohio State team that has been a dumpster fire since New Year's Day. With the Buckeyes completely out of the at-large conversation, North Carolina's only win over a projected tournament team was the home game against NC State.
The saving grace for the Tar Heels is that there haven't been any terrible losses.
Don't get me wrong: Getting swept by Pitt and losing at both Virginia Tech and Wake Forest wasn't great. But having not lost to a single team outside the NET top 75 is not something many bubble teams can claim.
Time to actually win some of those matchups, though.
UNC has five games remaining against Clemson, Miami, NC State, Virginia and Duke, and all but the contest against the Wolfpack are at home. In addition to needing to win the road games against Notre Dame and Florida State, the Tar Heels must win at least two of those five games, and might want to make it three, just to be safe.
Stock Up: Nevada Wolf Pack
5 of 10
Current Resume: 19-6, NET: 22, RES: 20.5, QUAL: 51.7, No. 11 seed in Bracket Matrix
Five Most Recent Games: W vs. New Mexico, L at UNLV, W vs. San Diego State, W vs. Air Force, W at New Mexico
Fun fact of the day: If we were still using RPI instead of NET as the primary sorting metric, Nevada would be No. 3 in the nation right now.
Rest in peace, RPI. You were always a little absurd. But it speaks volumes to how much ground the Wolf Pack have gained over the past two-and-a-half weeks.
Sweeping New Mexico was massive. Both games were outrageously entertaining, the first going to double overtime and the second decided on a Kenan Blackshear game-winner that hung on the rim before falling through with 0.1 seconds remaining. But just like the back-and-forth gem earlier in the year against Boise State, Nevada was twice able to eke out a key win.
In between those victories over the Lobos, the Wolf Pack also picked up a critical home win over San Diego State.
Compared to that trifecta of important Ws, the loss at UNLV was no big deal.
Nevada now has three Quadrant 1 wins and five total wins against the NET top 40. The predictive metrics haven't bought in yet, but with no losses below the top half of Quadrant 2, the Wolf Pack will surely be dancing if they can avoid disaster down the stretch.
Unfortunately, there is plenty of disaster lurking. Aside from the Q1 game at Utah State, Nevada's remaining schedule consists of four Q3 games and one Q4 game. Lose to the Aggies and drop one of the other five games, and Nevada might have some work to do in the Mountain West tournament.
Stock Down: Penn State Nittany Lions
6 of 10
Current Resume: 14-10, NET: 62, RES: 63.0, QUAL: 58.3, Sixth Team Out in Bracket Matrix
Five Most Recent Games: L at Rutgers, W vs. Michigan, L at Purdue, L at Nebraska, L vs. Wisconsin
After starting out 11-3 overall, it has been tough sledding for Penn State in the Big Ten.
Though the Nittany Lions did thrash both Indiana and Michigan in State College along the way, they have lost seven of their last 10 games, with the two most recent losses serving as their biggest missteps of the year.
At Nebraska, Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk shot a combined 12-of-21 from three-point range, but it wasn't enough to overcome Keisei Tominaga's 30 burger for the Cornhuskers. Didn't help matters that not a single member of Penn State's starting five attempted a free throw in that game, but that's still one you have to win when you're on the bubble.
Same goes for the home game against Wisconsin, which the Nittany Lions lost in overtime. Jalen Pickett did his thing (17 points, eight rebounds and eight assists), but Tyler Wahl matched him with 16 points, eight assists and six rebounds while the Badgers made the most of Penn State's 11 giveaways.
Penn State was the definition of a bubble team prior to those two losses. Had the Nittany Lions won at Nebraska, they would have entered the Wisconsin game as either the last team in or the first team out of the projected field. If they had beaten Wisconsin, they would still be in the "first four out" mix heading into Saturday's game at Maryland.
But now they're in big trouble, needing to go at least 4-3 down the stretch to have any case for a bid. Might even take a 5-2 finish for the Nittany Lions to enter the Big Ten tournament in good dancing position.
Stock Up: West Virginia Mountaineers
7 of 10
Current Resume: 15-9, NET: 19, RES: 30.5, QUAL: 20.3, No. 9 seed in Bracket Matrix
Five Most Recent Games: W at Texas Tech, W vs. Auburn, L at TCU, W vs. Oklahoma, W vs. Iowa State
West Virginia started out 0-5 in Big 12 play and entered the second half of January on the wrong side of the projected bubble, despite ranking top 25 on KenPom and at least looking the part of a team that could win multiple games in the NCAA tournament.
The Mountaineers just kept finding ways to lose competitive games against top-tier foes.
But they flipped a switch starting with the Jan. 18 home win over TCU and have added three Quadrant 1 wins and a pair of Quadrant 2 wins to their resume in the past three-plus weeks.
WVU was already somewhat comfortably in the projected field prior to the Wednesday win over Iowa State, but now the Mountaineers are in with room to spare.
All hail the power of a hot streak in the Big 12.
Despite the turnaround, though, there's still a "sheer volume of losses" concern for West Virginia.
The 'Eers already have nine L's with road games still to come against Texas, Baylor, Kansas and Iowa State. Should they fail to pull off the upset in any of those games, even if they hold serve at home against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas State, they would be 18-13 overall heading into the Big 12 tournament.
And depending on where Iowa State and Kansas State end up in the NET, the Mountaineers could also be 0-12 against the top half of Quadrant 1, which would be a tough pill for the selection committee to swallow.
The way the Mountaineers are playing as of late, though, it'd be a surprise if they don't win at least one of those remaining road games to effectively punch their ticket to the dance.
Stock Down: Oklahoma Sooners
8 of 10
Current Resume: 12-12, NET: 63, RES: 57.0, QUAL: 55.0, Appears in 1 of 106 projections in Bracket Matrix
Five Most Recent Games: L at TCU, W vs. Alabama, L vs. Oklahoma State, L at West Virginia, L at Baylor
While the 93-69 victory over Alabama was one of the most impressive results by any team in this entire season, it was an oasis in a desert of blowout losses.
Since winning the home game against West Virginia on Jan. 14, Oklahoma has lost six consecutive Big 12 games by a combined margin of 97 points. That includes a pair of losses by double digits to Oklahoma State, which made it just about impossible for the Sooners to even sniff a .500 league record.
They are currently 2-9 in the Big 12 and have plummeted all the way to .500 overall. Never mind all of the other metrics; sitting at 12-12 takes Oklahoma completely out of the at-large conversation until further notice.
And let's just say we aren't holding our breath, as the Sooners' next four games are against Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State and Texas.
On the one hand, hey, that's a fantastic opportunity to build on a resume. Cobble together a 3-1 record against that slate and, boom, Oklahoma potentially moves right back into the projected field with what would be a 7-10 record against Quadrant 1.
At this point, though, if they have three big wins in them, the Sooners might as well save them until the Big 12 tournament and lock up the auto bid.
Other Stock Up Teams
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Arkansas Razorbacks: As if beating Texas A&M by 11 and Kentucky by 15 on consecutive Tuesdays wasn't enough good news in Fayetteville, Nick Smith Jr. returned to practice this week and might be able to make a "Kyrie Irving's season at Duke" type of return for the NCAA tournament before going off to the NBA lottery. The Hogs were teetering on the bubble before that blowout win in Rupp Arena. It's starting to feel like they might be back, though a rigorous closing stretch that includes road games against Alabama, Tennessee and Texas A&M might change that narrative.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: MSU still has work to do to make up for losing eight out of nine games from Dec. 20 through Jan. 25, but the Bulldogs are clawing their way back into the mix with great defense. They knocked off TCU in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge and proceeded to hold South Carolina, Missouri and LSU to 51, 52 and 53 points, respectively. If they can keep that going to get wins over Arkansas and Kentucky in the next seven days, that should push them back into the projected field.
Oklahoma State Cowboys: Oklahoma is in "too many losses" territory, but Oklahoma State has climbed out of that abyss with wins in six of its last seven games. They weren't all great wins. The only road victory came against the Sooners. The Cowboys also won home games against Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. But they did defeat both Iowa State and TCU in Stillwater, and following Wednesday's win over the Red Raiders, they're up to 15-9 overall and above .500 in Big 12 play.
Oregon Ducks: Oregon has 10 losses, five of them against teams not currently in the at-large mix. But none of the losses was that bad, and the Ducks have won four of their last five games, including a key bubble win over USC on Thursday night. They are 8-8 against the top two quadrants with a gigantic home game against UCLA coming up Saturday. Win that one and Oregon would likely jump back into the projected field.
Pittsburgh Panthers: Pitt's run of its five most recent games begins with a terrible home loss to Florida State on Jan. 21, but the Panthers rebounded spectacularly with consecutive wins over Wake Forest, Miami and North Carolina. During that four-game stretch, they went from "maybe in" to "definitely out" to "probably would be a single-digit seed today." Quite the impressive yo-yo trick.
USC Trojans: USC entered Thursday night's game at Oregon as winner of six of its last seven games. All but the win at Arizona State came at home, but still an impressive stretch that included a 13-point victory over UCLA. A month ago, the Trojans had no realistic case for a bid. Now, they should get in as long as they don't screw up any games in the next 10 days against Oregon State, Cal and Stanford.
Other Stock Down Teams
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Arizona State Sun Devils: ASU has lost five of its last seven games, and the two wins over Oregon State and Stanford during that time don't amount to much. The home losses to UCLA and USC weren't terrible, but the road losses to Washington and Washington State were. Topping it off with a home loss to Oregon last Saturday was the final straw. The neutral-site win over Creighton still looks great on the resume, but that is the Sun Devils' only win over a projected tournament team compared to five bad losses. (And Creighton notably didn't have Ryan Kalkbrenner for that 73-71 game.)
Charleston Cougars: After winning 20 consecutive games and climbing into legitimate at-large territory, Charleston suffered back-to-back Quadrant 3 losses to Hofstra and Drexel. Now, it is almost certainly auto bid or bust for the Cougars, who have just two wins against the NET top 120.
Clemson Tigers: Many bracketologists insist on penciling Clemson in as the ACC's auto bid since it would be the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament if the season ended today. But after the recent loss at Boston College, the Tigers are very much on the bubble. They now have three bad losses (previously lost to South Carolina and Loyola-Chicago) and are going to need at least one big road win (UNC, NC State or Virginia) down the stretch to salvage an at-large bid.
New Mexico Lobos: UNM has lost three of its last four games, getting swept by Nevada with a road loss to Utah State in between. Prior to that skid, the Lobos were in excellent shape for a bid. And those high-quality road wins over Saint Mary's and San Diego State haven't gone anywhere. But they are now one bad loss from likely falling out of the projected field, with five games left on the docket that would qualify as bad losses.
Ohio State Buckeyes: After starting out 10-3 with no bad losses and solid wins over Rutgers, Northwestern, Texas Tech and Cincinnati, Ohio State has imploded, losing 10 of its last 11 games. Like Oklahoma, the Buckeyes aren't even on the at-large radar because of their overall record (11-13).
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