Biggest X-Factors for Chiefs to Avoid Upset Loss vs. Jaguars in 2023 NFL Playoffs

The Kansas City Chiefs will enter Saturday's divisional-round game against the Jacksonville Jaguars as the biggest betting favorite among the playoff teams.

The Jaguars didn't have an easy path to this point. They rallied over the second half of the season to win the AFC South and then overcame a 27-0 deficit against the Los Angeles Chargers to advance past the Wild Card Round.

The mountain will get even more difficult to climb when they take on Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites against the upstart Jags.

By all accounts, this is the Chiefs' game to lose. They are one of the best teams in the league and a serious contender to win the Super Bowl.

However, these are the playoffs and anything can happen. The Chiefs have to be on the lookout for some X-factors that could allow the Jaguars to continue their magical run in 2023.

Turnover Battle

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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 07: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the game at Allegiant Stadium on January 07, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)

If the Chiefs are looking for ways to make this game interesting, then losing the turnover battle would be the quickest way to do it.

As a team, Kansas City brings a lot of great things to the table. It has one of the league's most explosive offenses, Patrick Mahomes should win the MVP award, and the defense plays well with the offense's capability.

Taking care of the ball hasn't been a strength, though. The Chiefs are 22nd in turnover margin and have averaged 1.4 giveaways per game. Mahomes led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, but he also threw 12 interceptions.

In most cases, the turnovers haven't come back to bite them. But it is worth noting that the quarterback has only thrown multiple interceptions in two games this season. The Chiefs are 1-1 in those contests, with the win coming against a bad Denver Broncos team.

The Jaguars might not be the best team left in the AFC, but they are good enough to take advantage of a few turnovers and make things interesting.

Jacksonville has been careless with the ball, too, but it's also been aggressive in creating turnovers on defense. It is ninth in takeaways per game.

Special Teams

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Kadarius Toney returns a punt against the Texans.

Kansas City's special teams haven't been all that special this season.

The offense is electric, and the defense is good enough to get some key stops. The biggest question is what the Chiefs can do to win on the third side of the ball.

ESPN's efficiency rankings are a perfect example. The Chiefs' offense is No. 1 in the league. The defense comes in at No. 12 while the special teams are ranked 32nd.

Harrison Butker's struggles this season play a role in that ranking. He's connected on at least 88.9 percent of his field goals but has hit just 75 percent of his attempts this season. If the game comes down to a field goal, the Chiefs have good reason to be concerned.

The punt return unit hasn't helped, either. Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney have all returned punts this season, but they've combined for five fumbles including four the team lost.

The kickoff return team is 29th in yards per return. That doesn't have the same catastrophic consequences that a muffed punt return or a missed field goal could have, but the point remains that Kansas City's special teams could be a negative force in this game.

Trevor Lawrence

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JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - JANUARY 14: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars throws a pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half of the game in the AFC Wild Card playoff game at TIAA Bank Field on January 14, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

It's no secret that quarterbacks can make or break a playoff run. Trevor Lawrence showed both sides of that coin in his debut playoff game against the Chargers.

In the first half, the 23-year-old looked like he wasn't ready for playoff football. He threw four interceptions as the Chargers raced off to a 27-0 lead.

Then, he reminded people of why he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft and came through with four second-half touchdowns, racking up 288 passing yards and outdueling Justin Herbert down the stretch.

Lawrence will have a much more difficult time outdueling Patrick Mahomes on Saturday. Mahomes has been in this spot multiple times and knows what it takes to get to and win a Super Bowl.

However, there's nothing scarier than a quarterback who catches fire in the postseason. If there's an X-factor that could impact this game, it's the potential momentum of Lawrence, who has won big games at every level on his way to the NFL.

The Jaguars have surrounded the Clemson product with the weapons to threaten the Chiefs defense. If the Lawrence who tore up the Chargers in the second half shows up, the Jags could at least turn the game into a shootout.

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