NFL Playoff Picture 2023: Scenarios, Standings and Predictions Before Week 18
An AFC South champion will be crowned Saturday night, and the final two wild-card berths in the NFL will be secured Sunday. Then, we'll know which 14 teams will be heading to the playoffs.
There's quite a bit at stake in Week 18, which begins with a pair of games on Saturday. The nightcap features the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars, with the winner being awarded the AFC South title.
If the Jags lose, they could still be the third and final wild-card team in the conference, but the New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers are also battling for that spot.
The third and final NFC wild-card berth will go to one of the Seattle Seahawks, the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. The two teams that miss out will be done for the season.
Here's a look at the full NFL playoff picture, followed by Week 18 clinching scenarios and predictions for how things will unfold.
NFL Playoff Picture
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AFC
Division Leaders
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3, clinched AFC West)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, clinched AFC East)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4, clinched playoff berth)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
Wild-Card Leaders
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, clinched playoff berth)
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-6, clinched playoff berth)
7. New England Patriots (8-8)
In The Hunt
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
10. Tennessee Titans (7-9)
NFC
Division Leaders
1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, clinched playoff berth)
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4, clinched NFC West)
3. Minnesota Vikings (12-4, clinched NFC North)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8, clinched NFC South)
Wild-Card Leaders
5. Dallas Cowboys (12-4, clinched playoff berth)
6. New York Giants (9-6-1, clinched playoff berth)
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
In The Hunt
8. Detroit Lions (8-8)
9. Green Bay Packers (8-8)
AFC Clinching Scenarios, Predictions
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The winner of Saturday night's Titans-Jaguars game in Jacksonville will be the AFC South champion and the No. 4 seed in the conference.
If Tennessee loses, its season will be over. If the Jags lose, they could still be the No. 7 seed if the Patriots, Dolphins and Steelers all lose as well.
New England is in control in the battle for that final wild-card berth, though. If it beats Buffalo on the road, it will secure that spot.
If the Pats lose, then the Dolphins can clinch the No. 7 seed with a home win over the Jets. But if New England and Miami both lose, that's when Pittsburgh will have a chance to capitalize. At that point, the Steelers could capture the last wild-card spot with a home win over the Browns.
Prediction
1. Kansas City
2. Buffalo
3. Cincinnati
4. Jacksonville
5. Los Angeles
6. Baltimore
7. Miami
It would be surprising if the Titans beat the Jaguars on the road. Tennessee has lost six straight games, a stretch that includes a 36-22 home defeat vs. Jacksonville. Plus, Joshua Dobbs will again start at quarterback for the Titans in the absence of the injured Ryan Tannehill.
The Jags have been on a roll, having won four straight games and six of their past eight. They've allowed only six total points across their last two victories, so their defense should have little trouble shutting down a Dobbs-led offense.
Don't be surprised if the Dolphins sneak into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed despite their recent struggles. The Patriots will have trouble going on the road to face the Bills, and when they lose, it will open the door for Miami to take advantage.
Although the Dolphins have lost five consecutive games and will be starting either Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson at QB, they're capable of beating the Jets at home.
New York is freshly eliminated from the playoffs and may struggle to limit Miami's offensive playmakers. Plus, the Dolphins' defense should enjoy a solid performance to help power them to victory and deny the Steelers a chance to grab the final wild-card berth.
NFC Clinching Scenarios, Predictions
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For the third straight week, the Eagles can capture the NFC East title and secure the No. 1 seed in the conference with a victory. They'll be looking to do so at home against the Giants, which are already locked into the No. 6 seed.
If Philadelphia loses, either San Francisco or Dallas could steal the top spot. Even if the Cowboys don't move up that far, they could become the NFC East champion in that scenario.
The only way the 49ers can secure the No. 1 seed is if the Eagles lose and they then beat the Cardinals at home. If Philadelphia and San Francisco both lose, Dallas could end up in the top spot with a road win over Washington. (The Cowboys only need the Eagles to lose and to beat the Commanders to win the NFC East title, though.)
Either the Seahawks, Lions or Packers will be the No. 7 seed in the NFC. Green Bay is in control, as it can clinch that berth with a home win over Detroit.
The Seahawks can only get in if they beat the Rams and the Lions defeat the Packers. Detroit needs Seattle to lose, and then it has to beat Green Bay.
Prediction
1. Philadelphia
2. San Francisco
3. Minnesota
4. Tampa Bay
5. Dallas
6. New York
7. Green Bay
The battle for the No. 1 seed shouldn't have a thrilling conclusion. The Eagles will snap their two-game losing streak and take care of business against the Giants, which have no incentive other than to play spoiler.
That game will be close if Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts is out again with a shoulder sprain, but the Eagles should win anyway.
It won't matter what happens in the Rams-Seahawks game, because the Packers should keep their recent momentum going with a win over the Lions on Sunday night.
Green Bay, which has won four straight games, will get revenge for its 15-9 loss in Week 9 in Detroit.
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