2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
Now that the calendar has flipped to 2023 and conference play is in full swing, it feels like the 2023 men's NCAA tournament is just beyond the horizon. And with a little more than two months remaining until Selection Sunday, Kansas, Arizona, Purdue and Connecticut are still holding down the fort as our projected No. 1 seeds. (Though, Houston is hot on that quartet's heels.)
At the other end of the spectrum, Iowa is in one of the most spectacular free falls in recent memory, plummeting from a No. 7 seed just two weeks ago to no longer in the mix for a bid. That helped open the door for Creighton to sneak back into the projected field after a few weeks on the wrong side of the bubble.
For each of the four regions, we will discuss one team in better shape than it was two weeks ago, and another that—though still in position to dance—perhaps isn't as safe as we thought.
Before that, we will start with the bubble. After the region-by-region breakdowns, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order they are. At the end is a list of seeds by conference as a handy reference guide.
One quick "glossary" note: When we take deeper looks at specific teams' résumés, you'll see NET, RES and QUAL. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee and the metric from which quadrant records are derived. RES is the average of the team's résumé metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record). QUAL is the average of the quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, KenPom.com and Sagarin).
NET rankings are updated daily here. The others are masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik. All data is accurate through the start of play Monday.
Last 5 In
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Last Team In: Creighton Bluejays
8-6, NET: 34, RES: 61.5, QUAL: 24.0
Creighton finally snapped a six-game losing skid, beating Butler and DePaul at home by a combined 37 points. Not exactly résumé builders, but critical confidence builders in advance of road games against Connecticut this Saturday and Xavier next Wednesday. The Bluejays will need to win one of those to avoid slipping back to the wrong side of the bubble.
Second-to-Last In: Oklahoma State Cowboys
9-5, NET: 40, RES: 82.0, QUAL: 27.0
By the predictive metrics, Oklahoma State looks good. But as far as wins and losses go, the Cowboys hadn't done much of anything prior to their home win over West Virginia on Monday night. It's too bad they blew 15-point second-half leads against Kansas and UCF, or they would be much more comfortably in the field.
Third-to-Last In: LSU Tigers
12-1, NET: 75, RES: 34.5, QUAL: 70.7
LSU's nonconference strength of schedule was deplorable, but at least the Tigers opened SEC play with a surprising home win over Arkansas to get to 12-1. That's just the beginning of a big-time gauntlet, though. Over the course of the next 36 days, they'll play 10 games against teams in the KenPom top 50, beginning with Tuesday's bubble showdown at Kentucky.
Fourth-to-Last In: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
10-4, NET: 20, RES: 71.0, QUAL: 16.3
We're probably underselling Rutgers here after a massive 65-64 road win over AP No. 1 Purdue. Prior to that game, though, the Scarlet Knights were 3-4 against the top three Quadrants with really nothing aside from the home win over Indiana to their credit. That said, this is a solid team with a great defense and a propensity for getting big wins at home. They'll likely find a way to sneak into the dance.
Fifth-to-Last In: Utah State Aggies
12-2, NET: 23, RES: 31.5, QUAL: 50.7
Losses to Weber State and SMU poked some serious holes in a USU résumé that looked mighty fine during a 9-0 start to the year. But at least the Aggies bounced back a bit with a Christmas Day victory over Washington State in Hawai'i. Road games against Boise State and Nevada in the next two weeks loom large as potential stumbling blocks.
First 5 Out
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First Team Out: Utah Utes
11-4, NET: 31, RES: 62.5, QUAL: 44.3
Utah missed out on a key opportunity against TCU two weeks ago, but its résumé still looks decent. Beating a projected No. 1 seed (Arizona) by 15 points will do that for you. Pivotal stretch upcoming for the Utes with a home game against Oregon before road games against UCLA and USC. They probably need to win two out of the three, or else it becomes a seriously uphill climb to a bid.
Second Team Out: Providence Friars
12-3, NET: 48, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 38.0
At the end of November, Providence was 5-3 with nothing but Quadrant 4 wins to its credit. But the Friars have gotten out to a 4-0 start in Big East play, with a double-overtime home win over Marquette sandwiched between three road wins over Seton Hall, Butler and DePaul. They have a gigantic opportunity to move the needle at home against Connecticut on Wednesday.
Third Team Out: UAB Blazers
12-2, NET: 60, RES: 54.0, QUAL: 52.3
There is a real possibility of a multi-bid Conference USA this year with UAB, Florida Atlantic and North Texas all currently in the NET top 60. But the Blazers need to seize the opportunity to win at FAU on Thursday, as they currently have just one win over a top-100 foe (vs. Charlotte).
Fourth Team Out: UCF Knights
10-4, NET: 52, RES: 54.0, QUAL: 50.7
After two-point home losses to Miami (Nov. 27) and Missouri (Dec. 17), UCF let another major chance slip away, falling by six at Houston on New Year's Eve. The Knights certainly look like a top-50 team, and they do have wins away from home over Oklahoma State, Ole Miss and Santa Clara. They would probably be in right now were it not for that double-overtime home loss to UNC Asheville to open the season.
Fifth Team Out: Northwestern Wildcats
10-3, NET: 64, RES: 46.5, QUAL: 61.3
A home win over Ohio State on Sunday would have vaulted Northwestern into the projected field. Instead, the Wildcats trailed by as many as 28 points in the second half and remain on the outside looking in. Opportunities abound in the Big Ten, though, as their next six games are against Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin. Going 3-3 through that stretch should be enough to enhance this résumé.
Also Worth Mentioning: Iowa Hawkeyes and Texas Tech Red Raiders
Iowa has fallen to 8-6 overall, dropping completely off the map after following up a horrific home loss to Eastern Illinois with a 16-point loss at Nebraska. And Texas Tech enters Tuesday's home game against Kansas with an 0-3 record in games not played against Quadrant 4. Neither is close right now.
East Region (New York City)
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Albany, New York
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Grambling State
No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 9 Oklahoma
Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Bradley
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 12 Iona
Des Moines, Iowa
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 14 Yale
No. 6 Kansas State vs. No. 11 Creighton/Rutgers
Sacramento, California
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 SIU-Edwardsville
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Florida Atlantic
Movin' On Up: Kansas State Wildcats (Up Four Seed Lines)
12-1, NET: 27, RES: 18.0, QUAL: 42.3
This mutliple-seed-line promotion might age poorly in a hurry with road games against Texas and Baylor coming up in the next five days, but one-loss Kansas State finally added a quality win to its résumé, knocking off then-AP No. 24 West Virginia on New Year's Eve.
The Wildcats had to rally from a tough start to that game, too, clawing back from a 17-3 deficit before winning in overtime. The dynamic duo of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson led the way with a combined 41 points.
Fading Fast: Illinois Fighting Illini (Down Three Seed Lines)
9-4, NET: 39, RES: 56.5, QUAL: 25.7
Illinois has one of the stranger résumés at the moment. The Illini scored a pair of extremely high-quality neutral-site victories over Texas and UCLA, but they only have one other win against the top three quadrants (vs. Syracuse) to go along with four losses, two of which came in blowout fashion against Penn State and Missouri.
Which is the real Illini?
These next five games might answer the question, as a legitimate Sweet 16 threat would be expected to win at least four out of: at Northwestern, vs. Wisconsin, at Nebraska, vs. Michigan State, at Minnesota. Adding a few Q2/Q3 wins to the résumé would help reduce its week-to-week volatility.
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Midwest Region (Kansas City)
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Des Moines, Iowa
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Colgate/Norfolk State
No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 North Carolina
Columbus, Ohio
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Dayton
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Sam Houston State
Orlando, Florida
No. 3 Miami vs. No. 14 Liberty
No. 6 Auburn vs. No. 11 Penn State
Birmingham, Alabama
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Purdue Fort Wayne
No. 7 TCU vs. No. 10 Kentucky
Movin' On Up: Xavier Musketeers (Up Three Seed Lines)
12-3, NET: 21, RES: 14.0, QUAL: 21.0
Early on in the season, Xavier couldn't quite get over the hump for a big win. It lost by two to Indiana, by four to Gonzaga and by seven to Duke. But the Musketeers have now won eight in a row, bookending their December with great home wins over West Virginia and Connecticut by 10 points each.
Toppling previously undefeated Connecticut was the big one, of course. The X-Men shot 24-of-39 (61.5 percent) from inside the arc and 23-of-28 (82.1 percent) from the free-throw line in pulling off the upset.
If they can stretch this winning streak to 11 games by beating Villanova, Creighton and Marquette in the next two weeks, the Musketeers might even start gaining some momentum for a No. 1 seed.
Fading Fast: Kentucky Wildcats (Down Four Seed Lines)
9-4, NET: 41, RES: 70.0, QUAL: 18.3
Not exactly breaking news here, but Kentucky is a mess. Losing by 14 to Missouri on a night where reigning NPOY Oscar Tshiebwe went for 23 points and 19 rebounds—less than two weeks after being held to 53 points in a loss to UCLA—felt like a tipping/breaking point for UK.
The predictive metrics refuse to give up hope on what was supposed to be the best team in the country. But after getting blown out by Missouri, the Wildcats are now 0-3 in Quadrant 1 games with all three losses coming by double digits. Their best wins of the season were a home game against Yale and a close call against Michigan in London.
Kentucky plays at Alabama this coming Saturday and at Tennessee the following Saturday. If it fails to win either game, Kentucky will be on the outside looking in for our subsequent bracket projection.
South Region (Louisville)
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Columbus, Ohio
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Nicholls State/Wagner
No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Marquette
Albany, New York
No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 James Madison
No. 5 West Virginia vs. No. 12 Kent State
Denver, Colorado
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 UMass Lowell
No. 6 Saint Mary's vs. No. 11 LSU/Oklahoma State
Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Longwood
No. 7 New Mexico vs. No. 10 Arizona State
Movin' On Up: New Mexico Lobos (Up Three Seed Lines)
14-0, NET: 18, RES: 16.0, QUAL: 58.3
New Mexico just keeps winning and just keeps climbing.
None of its results from the past two weeks—blowing out Prairie View A&M and Colorado State; eking out a one-point win at Wyoming—was all that noteworthy. But at least the Lobos won their games. That's more than can be said for the likes of Mississippi State, Illinois, Arizona State, Kentucky, Memphis, North Carolina, Maryland, Iowa and others who were ahead of UNM two weeks ago.
But to ascend above a No. 7 seed, the Lobos are going to need to start actually adding some quality wins to their résumé. The late-November road win over Saint Mary's was fantastic, but that was one of just two games they've played against the top two quadrants. Adding a mid-January road win over San Diego State would be huge.
Fading Fast: Arizona State Sun Devils (Down Four Seed Lines)
11-3, NET: 55, RES: 36.0, QUAL: 54.0
ASU had climbed to as high as a No. 6 seed after its neutral-site win over Creighton in mid-December.
But after getting absolutely demolished in a 97-60 loss at San Francisco on Dec. 21, the Sun Devils now have two losses to teams nowhere near the projected field (previously lost at Texas Southern) to go along with just a couple of neutral-site victories over bubble teams (Creighton and Michigan).
They should be able to stockpile a good number of wins over the course of their next 13 games, only one of which (vs. UCLA on Jan. 19) comes against a projected tournament team. But we'll see if the Sun Devils can actually take care of business against the Oregons and Washingtons of the Pac-12.
West Region (Las Vegas)
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Denver, Colorado
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Montana State
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Mississippi State
Orlando, Florida
No. 4 Baylor vs. No. 13 Oral Roberts
No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 12 Charleston
Sacramento, California
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Utah State
Birmingham, Alabama
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Chattanooga
No. 7 Virginia Tech vs. No. 10 Michigan State
Movin' On Up: Missouri Tigers (Up Six Seed Lines)
12-1, NET: 32, RES: 20.5, QUAL: 46.3
We've already encountered both Illinois and Kentucky as "Fading Fast" teams as a result of their blowout losses to Missouri, so it only makes sense that the Tigers are on the most meteoric rise of all.
For the first month of the season, Missouri was a classic "Wake us up when you beat someone that matters" team. The Tigers started 9-0 with nothing close to a quality win. The best outcome was a road game against Wichita State, and they needed a late 10-point comeback and overtime to get that W.
But since getting smashed by Kansas on Dec. 10, Missouri has reeled off three solid wins over UCF, Illinois and Kentucky, the latter two by a combined 36 points. All of a sudden, the Tigers have a Q1 win and a trio of Q2 victories on their résumé with another massive opportunity on tap at Arkansas on Wednesday.
Fading Fast: Virginia Tech Hokies (Down Three Seed Lines)
11-3, NET: 38, RES: 37.5, QUAL: 36.7
The Hokies are painfully close to an undefeated season. They twice lost by identical scores of 77-75—once at Charleston; once at Wake Forest—and lost by five in overtime at Boston College.
It's painful because of how close the margins were, but also because of the level of competition the losses came against. The Charleston loss was actually the most acceptable of the three, as Virginia Tech has added both a Q2 and a bad Q3 loss in ACC play over the past two weeks.
All of the metrics still suggest this team would be comfortably in the tournament if it started today, though. Those neutral-site victories over Penn State and Oklahoma State still look good, as does the home win over North Carolina, even as the Tar Heels continue to fade. But there's no question this résumé looks a good deal worse than it did before the Boston College and Wake Forest losses.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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No. 4 Connecticut Huskies
14-1, NET: 2, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 2.7
The loss to Xavier temporarily knocked Connecticut out of the running for the No. 1 overall seed, but the Huskies are still in excellent shape after their 14-0 start. It does bear mentioning that they only have two wins over teams in the projected field (Alabama and Iowa State), while Purdue, Kansas and Arizona each have at least four such wins. That could change, of course, but it is creating a little bit of separation between those three teams and UConn.
No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers
13-1 NET: 4, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 8.3
Purdue is no longer undefeated thanks to Rutgers. However, the Boilermakers remain in good shape for a No. 1 seed because that Thanksgiving weekend stretch of blowing out West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke in Portland, Oregon, still looks amazing. The predictive metrics never bought Purdue as the best team in the country, but it's hard to argue with what was a 4-0 record in Quadrant 1 games before Monday.
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats
13-1, NET: 5, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 7.0
Of the five teams (these four and Houston) vying for a spot on the top line, Arizona has the worst loss—by 15 points at Utah. But the Wildcats also have five Quadrant 1 wins, including blowouts of Indiana and San Diego State on neutral courts. As of Monday morning, they are the only team with at least five Q1 wins. And that's key for Arizona, because the only definite Q1 games left on the schedule are the two showdowns with UCLA.
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
12-1, NET: 7, RES: 2.5, QUAL: 8.0
Down by 15 at halftime of its Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State, the reigning national champion sure did threaten to take itself out of the mix for a No. 1 seed. But the Jayhawks opened the second half on a 22-5 run to eke out a two-point victory. Meanwhile, Kansas' 28-point road win over Missouri has aged marvelously in light of Mizzou's aforementioned blowout wins over Illinois and Kentucky.
Seeding by Conference
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In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each squad's overall seed, broken down by conference. "First Five Out" are listed in italics.
American (2): 5. Houston; 31. Memphis; 72. UCF
ACC (5): 12. Miami; 13. Virginia; 15. Duke; 27. Virginia Tech; 35. North Carolina
Big 12 (9): 1. Kansas; 9. Texas; 16. Baylor; 20. West Virginia; 23. Iowa State; 24. Kansas State; 25. TCU; 36. Oklahoma; 45. Oklahoma State
Big East (4): 4. Connecticut; 14. Xavier; 34. Marquette; 46. Creighton; 70. Providence
Big Ten (9): 3. Purdue; 17. Wisconsin; 18. Indiana; 26. Ohio State; 30. Illinois; 32. Maryland; 39. Michigan State; 41. Penn State; 43. Rutgers; 73. Northwestern
Mountain West (3): 28. New Mexico; 29. San Diego State; 42. Utah State
Pac-12 (3): 2. Arizona; 7. UCLA; 37. Arizona State; 69. Utah
SEC (8): 6. Tennessee; 8. Alabama; 11. Arkansas; 19. Missouri; 21. Auburn; 33. Mississippi State; 40. Kentucky; 44. LSU
West Coast (2): 10. Gonzaga; 22. Saint Mary's
Other (23): 38. Florida Atlantic; 47. Charleston; 48. Sam Houston State; 49. Kent State; 50. Iona; 51. Dayton; 52. Oral Roberts; 53. James Madison; 54. Bradley; 55. Liberty; 56. Yale; 57. UMass Lowell; 58. UC Santa Barbara; 59. Chattanooga; 60. Fort Wayne; 61. Longwood; 62. SIU Edwardsville; 63. Montana State; 64. Grambling State; 65. Norfolk State; 66. Colgate; 67. Nicholls State; 68. Wagner; 71. UAB
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference and KenPom unless otherwise noted.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
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