The B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football in Week 17
If you're reading this column, then odds are you are one win away from fantasy football's ultimate prize.
For starters, congratulations. Making the playoffs at all is often a truer test of skill and fantasy knowledge than having success in them. That you have done both merits a backslap.
Secondly, take a breath. Championship week can be as maddening as it is exciting. To come this far only to come up just short is not fun. Just thinking about the possibility of defeat in the title game can give even the most veteran fantasy managers indigestion.
Consider this year's final B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football the cure for that heartburn. A guide to ensuring that the only feelings to be had at the culmination of Week 17 are the elation of victory and the glee of talking smack to league mates at your coronation as champion.
Here you'll find players set to smash in Week 17. Others who will disappoint. Matchup plays to fill holes in lineups. Defensive advice. Everything but which kicker to start.
On to glory!
Week 17 Smash Starts
1 of 6
Smash performances are welcome any time of year. But players who blow up in the fantasy playoffs are remembered with reverence for years.
In 2019, Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints threw for 935 yards and 12 touchdowns in Weeks 14-16. In 2017, Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley hit 45 PPR points in both Weeks 15 and 16. As a rookie in 2014, Odell Beckham Jr. exploded in the fantasy playoffs, including a ridiculous 12/143/3 line in Week 15. In 2015, Washington Commanders tight end Jordan Reed posted at least 27 PPR points in three straight games to close the fantasy season.
The players listed here may not achieve that level of immortality. But all have the potential to feature in helping title teams in 2022.
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (at DET) (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,900)
Put last week's disappointing statistical performance against the Buffalo Bills out of your mind. In his first meeting with the Detroit Lions this season, Fields topped 310 total yards, racked up over 140 rushing yards and accounted for four touchdowns (two rushing, two passing).
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (at TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300)
Were the Cowboys playing later in the week, it's possible Prescott and CeeDee Lamb wouldn't even step on the field. But so long as there's a chance for Dallas to win the NFC East, the team should go all out against a defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Running Back
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams (at LAC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100)
Akers turned in 118 rushing yards and three touchdowns for last week's top performance at the position, and he has a rushing score in three of the last four games ahead of a meeting with the Los Angeles Chargers and their 26th-ranked run defense.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (at HOU) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,400)
In what amounts to his rookie season, Etienne has been excellent. He's averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has amassed exactly 1,000 rushing yards. No team is allowing more rushing yards per game than the Texans—a whopping 168.6.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,500)
This call may raise eyebrows given Evans' recent struggles, but the lanky wide receiver has owned the Carolina Panthers in recent years. Since the 2020 season, Evans has tallied at least 18 PPR points in each of four games against Carolina—including a 9/96/0 line in Week 7.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (at KC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,400)
More eyebrows! Yes, the Denver offense has been hot garbage for most of the season. But Jeudy and the Broncos just faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14, and in that meeting he hauled in eight passes for 73 yards and three touchdowns.
Tight End
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (at DET) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,500)
Chicago's passing "attack" doesn't inspire fantasy confidence—the Bears average fewer passing yards per game than Patrick Mahomes averages per half. But Kmet had a big game last time out against Detroit's dismal defense, finding the end zone twice.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (at TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,400)
Schultz has been solid for fantasy managers over the last month-plus—he's sixth among tight ends in PPR points since Week 12. The good times will continue against the Tennessee Titans, who are as bad defending the pass as they are good stuffing the run.
Week 17 Must-Fades
2 of 6
While smash fantasy performances are often remembered for years to come, duds tend to be forgotten. No one wants to remember that time Davante Adams caught two lousy passes for 15 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And that was a week ago.
However, as DJ Gallo of ESPN wrote in 2020, sometimes a performance is so bad it's unforgettable—like Laveranues Coles' nearly two decades ago.
"In Week 14 of the 2003 season—the fantasy playoffs—Coles had nine targets in Washington's 27-0 loss to Dallas," Gallo said. "On those nine targets he had zero receptions. That's 0.0 fantasy points, of course. Sure, that's awful. However, for good measure, Washington also gave him a carry in that game. It was a carry that lost a yard, meaning Coles finished with minus-0.1 fantasy points. Yes, minus-0.1 points in the fantasy playoffs from a receiver who was that season's WR13. Not great! Oh, and one week later? On one fewer target, Coles went for 28.4 fantasy points, helping exactly 0.0 percent of the fantasy managers who were bounced from the playoffs the week before."
The players here probably won't post negative fantasy points this week. But they also aren't likely to help managers reach the promised land.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at HOU) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200)
Lawrence is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL, with 11 touchdowns against just one interception over his last five starts. But for all of the Houston Texans' struggles, they rank 13th in pass defense and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (vs. NYJ) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)
Smith is one of the most pleasant fantasy surprises of 2022. He's a respectable seventh among quarterbacks in fantasy points. But even the top 12 may be a tall ask Sunday against a team that ranks outside the top 20 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Running Back
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (at TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,000)
Despite his missing practice this week, the Cowboys are reportedly "counting on" Pollard against the Titans on Thursday night. Fantasy managers would be well-served to count on someone else—a dinged-up player going against the AFC's No. 1 run defense is disappointment waiting to happen.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (at CIN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800)
Singletary looked great last week against the Bears, topping 100 rushing yards and finding the end zone. But terrible weather and a soft run defense contributed to that big day, and this week brings a better opponent and a game script that will probably be much more pass-heavy.
Wide Receiver
Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (at HOU) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000)
Jones has been quite the find for fantasy managers, ranking inside the top 25 receivers in PPR points. This week's draw is a tough one, though. The Texans have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. DEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,600)
Like Jones, Smith-Schuster has certainly had his moments. He too has served as a low-end fantasy WR2 this season. But like Jones, Smith-Schuster closes the season with a brutal matchup, against Denver's sixth-ranked pass defense.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NO) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,700)
Goedert looked good in his return to action last week, averaging 22.3 yards per catch against the Cowboys. But the New Orleans Saints haven't given up much in the way of PPR points to tight ends—a league-low 7.61 per game.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. SF) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,300)
Sometimes the fantasy gods are just cruel. First Waller landed on injured reserve and missed a chunk of the season. Then he drew a bad matchup in championship week. And now he'll be scooping wormburners from Jarrett Stidham after Derek Carr was benched.
Week 17 Mastering the Matchups
3 of 6
The last thing fantasy managers want in championship week is to have to patch a bunch of holes. They want to roll out dependable, high-end options. Watch the fantasy points flood in in a torrent of tastiness. And relax, getting up from the recliner only long enough to dust off a spot on the shelf for the new trophy.
But fantasy football doesn't work like that.
Injuries don't slow down just because fewer fantasy teams are still playing. Playoff teams with nothing left to play for can rest players (we'll address that more a little later). And if ever there were a week to consider fading a big name with a bad matchup, this all-or-nothing one is it.
There are no guarantees here. No sure bets. Every one of these options is something of a dice roll. But matchups play a big part in fantasy.
And these players have the kind of favorable matchups that can swing the week—and help bring home a championship.
Quarterback
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (at LV) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500)
It's possible that if the 49ers get out a huge lead over the Raiders on Sunday that Purdy could be pulled. But San Francisco still has a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and Purdy can use all the game experience he can get ahead of the postseason.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (at KC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,400)
The idea of starting Wilson in the penultimate contest of the fantasy season is about as appealing as a week-old fruitcake. But it's worth pointing out that in Week 14 he threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns with one interception and ran for 57 yards against Kansas City in Denver.
Running Back
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons (vs. ARI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,300)
The Falcons have been a run-heavy team all season, and that has only increased with rookie Desmond Ridder behind center. Allgeier should be in for a big workload Sunday against a defense that allows the fifth-most PPR points to running backs.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (vs. CHI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,300)
For most of the season, Swift has been a fantasy disappointment who has taken a back seat to Jamaal Williams. But heading into a matchup with a defense that ranks 30th against the run, Williams is banged up. So, Swift could be in for a substantial bump in touches.
Wide Receiver
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (at TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,300)
Gallup isn't lighting the world on fire, but after catching four passes for 36 yards and a score last week he has hit double-digit PPR points in three of the last five games. And no team in the AFC has given up more fantasy points to wideouts than the Titans.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers (vs. MIN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,400)
As the season has progressed, Lazard has taken a clear back seat to Christian Watson in the wide receiver hierarchy in Titletown. But Watson has a hip injury that could limit or even sideline him in a must-win game against the league's worst pass defense.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (at SEA) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,900)
The return of Mike White at quarterback is good news for all the Jets' pass-catchers, Conklin included. But the even better news for fantasy managers is a matchup with a team that allows the second-most PPR points to tight ends.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (vs. MIA) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,000)
Henry is nursing a knee injury, but he was on the practice field Wednesday and appears on track to play in Sunday's matchup of desperate AFC East teams. The Miami Dolphins have given up the third-most PPR points to tight ends.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Week 17 Reading the Defense
4 of 6
Having an elite defense can be a nice edge in the championship game. Despite giving up a whopping 40 points last week, the Eagles rode half a dozen sacks and a Josh Sweat pick-six to a top-10 finish. The 49ers finished just behind them, and, while their fantasy production last week was relatively pedestrian by their standards, San Fran remains the highest-scoring fantasy defense in the NFC.
Both teams have excellent matchups—the Eagles will host the struggling Saints offense, while the 49ers will travel to face a Raiders team starting Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. The Cowboys should also thrive against the injury-ravaged Titans, who could rest several starters.
Not everyone can have an elite defense, however. If you aren't one of the fortunate few who does, here are some plus matchup plays—and a few defenses that could be set for a letdown week at the worst possible time.
Strong D/ST Plays
New York Giants (vs. IND) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,900)
The Giants have just about everything going for them this week that a matchup play possibly could. The Indianapolis Colts were abysmal offensively last week and rank at or near the top of the league in sacks allowed, giveaways and fantasy points allowed to defenses.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. DEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,800)
The Chiefs aren't an especially good defensive team. But the Denver offense has been a catastrophe. The Broncos are 25th in total offense, last in scoring, lead the league with a staggering 57 sacks allowed and surrender the third-most fantasy points to defenses.
Jacksonville Jaguars (at HOU) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,600)
The Jaguars defense has upped its level of play over the last month, but this is all about the season-long struggles of the Texans offense. Houston sits last in total offense, 30th in scoring and second in fantasy points given up to defenses. It just isn't good at moving the ball.
Weak D/ST Plays
Pittsburgh Steelers (at BAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,600)
The Steelers have been hot of late, in part because the defense has played better. Lamar Jackson still isn't practicing for the Baltimore Ravens, but even while struggling offensively, Baltimore hasn't been a great fantasy matchup. It is 24th in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
Buffalo Bills (at CIN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,500)
Despite numerous injuries on that side of the ball, the Bills have remained a top-five fantasy defense. But this week's road game against the Cincinnati Bengals has shootout potential, and the Bengals rank 25th in fantasy points given up to defenses.
Denver Broncos (at KC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,200)
The Broncos have been a stout defensive team most of the season. But last week's implosion against the Rams was the death knell for Denver's fantasy value. No team has been a worse fantasy matchup for the position than Kansas City.
Staying Abreast of Teams That Rest
5 of 6
Usually, this is the point in the B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football when I answer questions from the Bleacher Report app. But with just two teams still alive in most leagues, there really aren't any. So, rather than ask myself questions (which is more than a little weird), we are going to address a potential dilemma unique to Week 17.
The possibility that teams will rest players.
In addition to the Raiders' benching Derek Carr (and the fallout that will have on the Las Vegas offense), there are a handful of other teams that could sit prominent fantasy options.
Because we didn't have enough problems.
Dallas Cowboys
Thankfully, the Cowboys play Thursday—three days before the NFC East-leading Eagles. That should open the door for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott to get normal workloads, though given the slim chance that Dallas has of actually winning the division, it may play it safe with the banged-up Tony Pollard.
Tennessee Titans
Thursday's game with Dallas means nothing to Tennessee. Win or lose, the Titans have to beat the Jaguars in Week 18 to win the AFC South. Since Derrick Henry suffered a hip injury, the odds he will get anything resembling a full workload are slim to none, and it's more likely than not that he will sit after being listed as doubtful.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are in the same boat as the Titans, but head coach Doug Pederson was emphatic while speaking to reporters Monday that Jacksonville will not rest starters. "There is never a meaningless game," Pederson said. "Never, ever, ever, ever. We play to win every game, and the only way I rest players is if they're hurt and can't go."
San Francisco 49ers
Barring chaos over the final two weeks of the season, the Niners are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the NFC. However, last week Kyle Shanahan indicated that he views sitting players as a mistake. Still, there's a difference between sitting players and scaling back workloads—especially if the Niners get a sizable lead over the Raiders. Christian McCaffrey is still a must-start, but he's more likely to get 12 touches than 20.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers aren't locked into a particular playoff slot, but they have clinched a berth in the playoffs--raising the possibility that Austin Ekeler's workload could be scaled back. Ekeler popped up on this week's injury report with a knee injury, and while he was a limited participant in practice that only increases the chance that we will see more of Joshua Kelley against the Rams.
THE Fantasy Boom of Week 17
6 of 6
In this final week of the fantasy season, every lineup spot is critically important. Every player who meets (or exceeds) expectations could be the one who propels a team to a championship. Every player who doesn't could be the one who dooms a team to defeat.
However, fantasy stars are expected to be, well, stars. That isn't to say that Tyreek Hill isn't important. But if the Miami wideout posts 25 PPR points, it's because he's supposed to. The players who can swing things are second- and third-tier starters. Put a WR3 or flex starter in the lineup who cracks that 20-point mark, and it can be the deciding factor in the quest for a title.
If that isn't a "boom," I don't know what is—and there's a rookie running back for whom the starts have aligned at the perfect time so he can become the hero of championship week.
Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200)
It has been quite the first season for Robinson. He shined in camp, missed a big chunk of the season after being shot in a carjacking attempt and then made his way back to the top of the backfield depth chart in the nation's capital. Now, as Jason Katz of Pro Football Network wrote, opportunity and matchup have combined to offer Robinson a great chance to finish on a high note.
"Robinson is averaging 18.1 carries per game since Week 9," Katz said. "While his snap share remains below 50 percent, he's the clear lead back. Most importantly, he's used near the goal line.
"The goal-line work hasn't mattered recently, as the Commanders haven't scored many touchdowns. That should change this week against a Browns defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
"Cleveland allows a whopping 5.2 yards per carry, third-most in the league. Only the Bears and Texans have allowed more rushing touchdowns. Robinson is a great bet to find the end zone this week. Start him."
It gets even better, as Robinson's snap share and workload could be set to increase. Washington needs to win, and Antonio Gibson has ankle and knee injuries.
Robinson is a good bet to get 20-plus touches Sunday against a defense that struggles to stop the run. And that makes 100-plus total yards and at least one score a reasonable expectation.
Looking for fantasy rankings? Check out Gary's Week 17 big board.
Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com for details.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
