Fine Margins Will Decide USMNT's Success at the 2022 World Cup
The United States men's national team departed their first match of the World Cup with just one point taken from Wales, having squandered an opportunity that could have easily ended with three.
Gregg Berhalter's squad lost points on the margins: poor chance creation despite a dominant first half, a moment of madness from a reliable defender that led to a late penalty and an accumulation of yellow cards that might haunt them.
They'll play England on Friday needing to step up their performance and account for those margins—no small task.
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England is the highest-scoring team in the tournament so far. They found six goals from five players in their opening match against Iran, commencing the stride of a tournament favorite capable of conjuring goals from all directions.
Lack of Clear Opportunities Comes Back to Haunt US
The first 45 minutes at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium featured an energetic U.S. dominant on the ball and living in Wales' half. Throughout, they held as much as 70 percent of the possession. But while they held the ball—moving it around their lines with ease, commanding in the midfield—they failed to produce clear-cut goal-scoring opportunities. They ended the half with just three shots and only one on target: Tim Weah's goal.
Low chance creation has been a problem for Berhalter's team in the past and something that could have been forgotten given how convincing the squad looked otherwise versus the Welsh. But three shots in a half in which the Americans held most of the ball is glaring and speaks of broader issues. It will be vital for the U.S. to capitalize on opportunities against England, especially since the expectation is that they'll be few and far between.
A source of goals against England could be set pieces, but the U.S. will need to improve. Christian Pulisic was tabbed as the corner- and free-kick taker, but the delivery from the Chelsea star left much to be desired. Players such as Weston McKennie and Walker Zimmerman can be dangerous on set plays and will be vital against England.
Wales' 2nd-Half Adjustments Take Advantage of Tiring US
Wales adjusted in the second half to account for the United States' dominance, sending in Bournemouth striker Kieffer Moore, changing their formation and pressing the back line. The U.S. failed to adjust adequately in response to those shifts, immediately losing dominance in possession and ceding momentum to the Welsh. As Wales opened up, the U.S. had opportunities in transition, but they failed to punish their opponents on the counter.
In the waning minutes, Gareth Bale did well to draw a foul in the box. It was an unnecessary mistake by Zimmerman, a momentary lapse in an otherwise strong performance. Whether it was caused by physical or mental fatigue, Zimmerman's error proved costly.
A match is won or lost on brief moments of brilliance or misjudgment. Against Wales, the U.S. didn't capitalize on enough of the former and were punished for it.
The Game Plan Against England
If there is a rubric for playing England, Iran's low-block defending didn't provide it.
Given that the USMNT back line isn't their strong suit, one might wonder at the wisdom of attempting to defend deep as Iran did.
Iran played conservatively against England, sitting back just as Wales later played the United States in their first half. Iran allowed England to have the ball and waited for the runs that made their defense look porous.
England showed patience in possession, waiting for the kill in the final third and succeeding with some of their youngest stars. Jude Bellingham found the net first. Bukayo Saka tallied twice. Raheem Sterling scored a stunner. Marcus Rashford made it five in the 71st minute. Jack Grealish added his own as the clock neared stoppage time.
Playing open, pressing high and hitting them on counters might in fact be the better ticket—especially since England has a mistake-prone defender in Harry Maguire ready to be exploited.
That may be the tactical setup for Berhalter's team, though they'll need to balance their aggression with strong defending. Berhalter has said that the United States can beat anybody on their best day. Does that mean England on Black Friday?
The U.S. had a good match against Wales, never mind the errors. But they'll need to be at their best against England and win their individual matchups.
Antonee Robinson had among his best performances with Fulham against Arsenal in late August, when alongside Tim Ream he shut down Saka. Bellingham is a wunderkind of the midfield, a joy to watch, but if the U.S., led by Tyler Adams, can replicate their first-half midfield performance against Wales, they stand a chance.
Energy and legs will be the deciding factor. If ever there's a match for Brenden Aaronson to start, it's this one.
But the spotlight will be on Pulisic, who will have something to prove. It's fair to say that his stint at Chelsea has fostered criticism and nothing would shut up the British media and Twitter more than a standout game against England.
How Math Comes Into Play
Should the U.S. lose, they will need to do it by the smallest margin possible.
A win for England would assure them advancement to the knockout stages, and they will be eager to cement that ticket. Should they do so, they will meet Wales without worry. If Wales defeats Iran, they would head into that match needing nothing but a better goal differential than the U.S. And should a qualified England rest players, it's likely Wales could keep their margin. That puts even more pressure on the Americans to limit the English attack that ran rampant versus Iran.
Should the United States come away with a draw against England, they will head into their final match against Iran more secure, especially if Iran manages to take points from Wales earlier Friday. But they'll likely need to get a win in their final match either way.
Yellow cards could also be a huge factor with four American players—McKennie, Ream, Sergiño Dest and Kellyn Acosta—on cautions. Another yellow will mean suspension for Tuesday's match against Iran.
With the expectations of another physical match, the quartet will need to walk a fine line between aggression and carelessness.
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