2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Rankings: Has Bennedict Mathurin Caught Paolo Banchero?
We're barely a month into the 2022-23 NBA season, and it's already clear that this year's rookie class boasts loads of talent, multiple potential stars and several more who should be longtime rotation players.
If the season ended today, which of them would be the Rookie of the Year?
By looking at a mix of basic and advanced numbers, team success, role within the team and good-old fashioned subjectivity, here are the top 10 contenders.
10-6: Williams, Griffin, Smith, Eason, Sharpe
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10. Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Jalen Williams storms onto the list this week with a strong showing over his last five games. Over that stretch, he's put up 11.6 points, 5.2 assists and 1.2 threes per game, nudging his season marks up to 9.2 points, 3.1 assists and 0.8 threes per game.
9. AJ Griffin, Atlanta Hawks
AJ Griffin has the potential to be one of the better shooters from the 2022 draft class. After shooting 44.7 percent from deep as a freshman at Duke, he's at 36.1 percent in the NBA. And even on a team almost certainly headed to the playoffs, he's forced his way into the rotation with four games in which he's hit at least two threes.
8. Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr. was billed as a potential high-end floor spacer heading into the NBA, but his current shooting splits (33.3 percent from the field, 30.2 percent from three and 83.3 percent from the free-throw line) are at least a little concerning. Still, he's averaging 10.9 points and blocking 1.1 shots per game. He's at least providing some encouraging signs on the defensive side of the three-and-D equation.
7. Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Tari Eason isn't scoring as much as his higher-drafted teammate, but he's shooting 37.1 percent from three and is averaging more rebounds and assists per 75 possessions than Smith. He's also second in the entire league in steals per 75 possessions.
6. Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
If highlights were the driving factor behind Rookie of the Year consideration, Shaedon Sharpe would probably be higher on the list. His are ridiculous.
Sharpe's 47.4 three-point percentage is plenty encouraging as well, but he needs a bit more volume in the ancillary categories (like assists, steals and blocks) to reenter the top five. Part of his modest marks there are a function of his role on a playoff team, but his per-possession averages are underwhelming, too.
5. Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
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By the traditional points-per-game-dominated criteria that typically decides Rookie of the Year, Walker Kessler doesn't really have an argument to be in the top five.
Among the 23 rookies who have played at least 100 minutes, Kessler ranks 17th with 5.3 points per game, but scoring will probably never be the primary source of his value. That comes from the other end of the floor, where he is probably the best player in this class.
Thanks in part to a huge block rate (3.3 per 75 possessions) and a solid defensive rebounding one (7.0 per 75 possessions), Kessler is tied for first among rookies in box plus/minus.
Kessler isn't the kind of shot blocker who chases highlight swats at the expense of the scheme, though. At 7'1" with a 7'4" wingspan, he is massive, plenty mobile for his size and smart about taking up space.
With Kessler on the floor, the Utah Jazz are surrendering only 106.9 points per 100 possessions. When he's off, they give up 116.5. That defensive rating swing ranks in the 90th percentile leaguewide.
4. Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
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Keegan Murray has cooled off since putting up 17.4 points and 3.0 threes while shooting 39.5 percent from deep in his first five appearances, but he should have something going for him that other contenders for this award typically don't.
Murray is a key cog for a good team.
The "Light the Beam" Sacramento Kings are 8-3 when Murray is in the starting lineup. That isn't a coincidence.
Right now, he looks like a perfect fifth starter for a team that gets plenty of offense from De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes.
With his length (6'11" wingspan) and mobility, Murray can be part of a positionless forward tandem with Barnes. That lends to switchability on defense. On the other end, the threat of his three-point stroke and an aversion to bad shots make him a good No. 5 option.
Murray's season-long averages of 12.1 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.2 threes per game (with a 35.9 three-point percentage) may not scream Rookie of the Year contender, but the Kings don't need him to do much more within his role.
3. Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
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Jaden Ivey is averaging 16.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.6 threes and 1.1 steals per game. Those are strong numbers for a rookie, but they've been even more impressive since Cade Cunningham went down with a potentially season-threatening injury.
Over those six games, with the offense essentially turned over to Ivey, he's nudged those marks up to 19.3 points, 4.7 assists and 1.8 threes per game.
A player's performance is about far more than the numbers, and that's especially true for Ivey. Much of his game is predicated on his ability to get to the rim, which he's been showing plenty in recent games.
Beyond just getting to the rim for his own buckets, Ivey has a bit more potential than Cunningham for the kind of force-of-nature assists that Russell Westbrook has made a career out of.
When Ivey drives and defenses collapse around him, he should have plenty of opportunities for drop-off or kick-out dimes.
2. Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
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Bennedict Mathurin has the same "contributor on a good team" argument as Keegan Murray, with a few variations.
With per-game averages of 19.1 points, 2.5 threes and 2.0 assists, he's doing more within that argument. And the Indiana Pacers' early-season Cinderella story could turn any day now.
Enough with the hypothetical, though. Indiana is above .500, and Mathurin might have as much to do with that as any of the veterans.
He's second on the Pacers in points per game (and second among all rookies), and his jump shooting has completely changed the complexion of multiple games.
On a team with Tyrese Haliburton, Mathurin may not be asked to do a ton more than provide the scoring he already is, but that's the only thing keeping him out of the top spot.
Spoiler alert: Paolo Banchero's game is just a little more well-rounded.
1. Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
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Paolo Banchero's extended absence due to an ankle injury may be strengthening Bennedict Mathurin's Rookie of the Year argument, but the Orlando Magic forward still tops the Pacers guard's per-game and per-possession averages for points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.
Banchero is doing a little bit of everything, other than connecting on his threes (25.6 percent). His scoring arsenal looks like that of a five-year veteran. His playmaking and unselfishness have been better than advertised. And you can even see the shades of a plus defender at times.
The Magic drafted Banchero with the No. 1 overall pick so he could help end a decade-long drought of bad offense with his scoring ability. He already appears to have the potential to be a full-fledged point forward, though.
Unless noted otherwise, stats provided by Basketball-Reference, NBA.com, Stathead and Cleaning the Glass.
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