MLB World Series 2022: Astros vs. Phillies Preview and Game-by-Game Predictions
After nearly seven months, 2,430 regular-season games and 34 postseason duels, the 2022 Major League Baseball season all comes down to this unlikely World Series pairing.
In one corner, you've got the Houston Astros. They won 106 games during the regular season and have gone a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs. It's their fourth World Series in six years, and no one can pretend to be surprised they've made it here.
In the other corner, you've got the Philadelphia Phillies. They won just 87 games during the regular season, but they caught fire when it mattered most. It's their first postseason appearance since 2011, and they only managed to sneak into the bracket by virtue of the newly expanded postseason format.
Houston is, naturally, favored to win.
But could the Phillies pull off the upset?
We'll take a look at some of the biggest storylines heading into the 2022 World Series before going over the schedule, some batter vs. pitcher history and a few intriguing prop bets. After all that, we'll reveal our pick to become the next world champion.
Big Storyline No. 1: Who Are You Calling an Underdog?
1 of 8
In the standings, sure, Philadelphia is a substantial underdog.
In fact, as we'll get to shortly, the Phillies are one of the biggest underdogs in World Series history from a regular-season wins perspective.
They started out 21-29 before turning a corner at the beginning of June, and they played in the much more difficult of the two divisions, with the NL East hosting a pair of 101-win teams.
But let's not act like the Phillies are some plucky underdog who managed to sneak into the postseason before overachieving.
Rather, Philadelphia spent about $62 million more in total payroll this season than did the Astros.
If you count both Houston's Michael Brantley (who has been out since June with a season-ending torn labrum) and Philadelphia's Didi Gregorius (who was released in August), the Phillies have twice as many players who made at least $14 million this season (eight) as the Astros do (four).
This was supposed to be one of the best teams in baseball. It simply underachieved for most of the season and is finally hitting its stride.
Big Storyline No. 2: Can the Astros Finally Beat an Inferior NL East Team?
2 of 8
In 2019, the NL East's Washington Nationals won the first World Series in franchise history, finishing off that series on the road against a Houston team that had won 14 more games during the regular season.
In 2021, the NL East's Atlanta Braves won their first World Series since 1995, finishing off that series on the road against a Houston team that had won seven more games during the regular season.
In fact, throw in the 1980 NLCS and the 2001 NLDS and Houston is 0-4 all-time in the postseason when facing an NL East team that won fewer regular-season games.
Et tu, Phillies?
The gap between the 106-win Astros and the 87-win Phillies is the second-largest in World Series history. But in the largest, the 93-58-3 Chicago White Sox upset the 116-36-3 Chicago Cubs all the way back in 1906.
Will the better team reign supreme this time, or are we headed for yet another "NL East over Houston" upset?
Big Storyline No. 3: Would World Series Ring Make Bryce Harper the Face of Baseball?
3 of 8
The face of baseball (or, more commonly, the lack of one) is one of those weird things people argue about a lot.
It's not so much a "Most Valuable Player" title as it is a "Most Visible Player" one; someone Major League Baseball can put up against the NBA's LeBron James and Steph Curry or the NFL's Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
For a good while, Mike Trout was clearly the former type of MVP, but not so much the latter type of MVP. And while both Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani were the top phenoms on the field this season, is either one really the face of baseball?
Ohtani undeniably is the face of MLB from an international perspective, but, could you imagine either of those guys hosting Saturday Night Live?
For Bryce Harper, that's a clown question, bro.
Of course you can imagine it.
He wears his heart on his sleeve and, occasionally, the Phillie Phanatic on his socks, cleats and headbands. Whereas Trout, Judge and Ohtani are great at baseball and easy to appreciate, Harper makes baseball fun to watch. And his run through this postseason (.419 batting average with five home runs) has been a reminder that he may well be baseball's best, most marketable (at least in the U.S.) player.
If Bam-Bam finally gets his first World Series ring at age 30, even better for his publicity.
.png?w=256)
Big Storyline No. 4: Revenge 42 Years in the Making?
4 of 8
It has been more than four decades since both Houston and Philadelphia even made the playoffs in the same season, let alone squared off.
But the lone time they did meet in the postseason, it was one of the best series ever.
It was the 1980 NLCS, which was a best-of-five series at the time. And they needed all five games and then some before the Phillies could advance (and eventually win their first World Series).
The Phillies had Steve Carlton. The Astros had Nolan Ryan. While those Hall of Fame pitchers didn't face each other in any of those games, it was one heck of a pitching duel of a series featuring a grand total of one home run (by Philadelphia's Greg Luzinski in Game 1.)
Games 2, 3, 4 and 5 all went to extra innings. Game 3 did so as a scoreless tie. In the other three, the Phillies won the eighth innings by a combined score of 9-3, erasing a late Houston lead in each of those contests.
Could we be headed for a similar amount of late-night drama?
And given that history, could the Phillies get a 77-year-old Carlton to throw out the first pitch for Game 3, as he did for Game 3 of the 2008 World Series against Tampa Bay?
The Schedule
5 of 8
All games scheduled to begin at 8:03 p.m. ET and will air on Fox.
Game 1: Philadelphia at Houston, Friday
Game 2: Philadelphia at Houston, Saturday
Game 3: Houston at Philadelphia, Monday
Game 4: Houston at Philadelphia, Tuesday
Game 5: Houston at Philadelphia, Wednesday
Game 6: Philadelphia at Houston, Friday, Nov. 4
Game 7: Philadelphia at Houston, Saturday, Nov. 5
Only the Phillies' Game 1 and Game 2 starters have been officially announced, and from Game 3 onward, each manager's decision will be at least somewhat driven by where the series stands.
But here's our best guess at how they'll line up.
Game 1: Justin Verlander vs. Aaron Nola
Game 2: Framber Valdez vs. Zack Wheeler
Game 3: Cristian Javier vs. Ranger Suárez
Game 4: Lance McCullers Jr. vs. Bullpen game/Noah Syndergaard
Game 5: Verlander vs. Nola
Game 6: Valdez vs. Wheeler
Game 7: All hands on deck
Key Batter vs. Pitcher History
6 of 8
With the exception of Kyle Gibson—who spent nearly a decade in the AL before getting traded to Philadelphia in 2021—there's not much batter vs. pitcher familiarity in this series. And, let's be honest: Gibson probably won't pitch a meaningful inning, as he has made just one appearance (in a mop-up role) this postseason.
But I looked through every batter vs. pitcher matchup for this series, these are the ones that stood out as at least somewhat noteworthy. The especially interesting ones are in bold.
Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins vs. All Houston pitchers: 0-for-19, 5 BB, 8 K
Brandon Marsh vs. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia: 9-for-17, 2 BB, 2 K
Kyle Schwarber vs. José Urquidy: 2-for-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
Kyle Schwarber vs. Astros not named Urquidy: 2-for-27, 1 HR, 8 K
Bryce Harper vs. Justin Verlander: 2-for-5, 2 K
Nick Castellanos vs. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr.: 1-for-21, 10 K
Houston Astros vs. Kyle Gibson: 31-of-133 (.233), 2 HR, 17 BB, 22 K
Houston Astros vs. Aaron Nola: 6-for-46, 0 HR, 1 BB, 17 K
Houston Astros vs. Ranger Suárez: 8-for-18, 3 HR, 1.611 OPS
Martín Maldonado vs. All Philadelphia pitchers: 6-for-44, 1 HR, 17 K
Yordan Alvarez vs. All Philadelphia pitchers: 7-for-17, 1 BB, 3 K
Yuli Gurriel vs. David Robertson: 3-for-5, 2 2B, 3 RBI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Ryan Pressly: 2-for-31, 3 BB, 13 K
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Framber Valdez: 5-for-36, 4 BB, 16 K
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Rafael Montero: 3-for-22, 1 HR, 8 BB, 11 K
Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker vs. Zack Wheeler: No Previous Meetings
Prop Bets Worth Considering
7 of 8
Player to Record Most Hits in World Series: Bryce Harper (+1000)
and/or
Player to Record Most Total Bases in World Series: Bryce Harper (+900)
We also recommended Harper at +1100 to record the most hits in the NLCS, so congratulations if you were on that bet along with us. But as was the case for that line 10 days ago, you just have to scratch your head and wonder: What am I missing here?
Harper is the two-time NL MVP who has been hotter than the sun. He's triple-slashing .450/.463/.975 over his last 10 games with five home runs, which are part of his 11 extra-base hits. He was named the NLCS MVP. If such an honor existed, he surely would have been the NLDS MVP too.
Yet, he has the seventh-best odds of recording the most hits in the World Series?
Yes, all six Astros listed ahead of him are solid hitters. Yuli Gurriel (11 hits), Alex Bregman (10) and Jeremy Peña (10) have been hot in their own right. Yordan Alvarez is a permanent threat to hit multiple home runs in any game. And while neither Kyle Tucker nor Jose Altuve has been hitting well this postseason, either one is liable to catch fire.
And perhaps this line is primarily a product of how great Houston's pitching has been.
At 10-1 odds, though, just ride the hot hand.
Yordan Alvarez Total Series Home Runs: Over 1.5 (+160)
Alvarez does go through more than his fair share of power outages. He ended the regular season on a 14-game homerless streak and had a 20-game drought from mid-August into mid-September. Plus, in his World Series career, he has one home run in 13 games.
But if Houston is the overwhelming favorite that everyone seems to believe it is, isn't Alvarez probably going to have a big game or two?
Because he and Tucker are the only left-handed hitters in the lineup and because they typically bat third and fifth, respectively, Alvarez will likely see a lot of left-handed Phillies relievers Brad Hand and José Alvarado.
However, Alvarez batted .321 and slugged .586 against lefties during the regular season, and his walk-off home run in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Mariners came against a lefty (Robbie Ray).
He can hit two more in this series.
Series Total Pitcher Strikeouts: Over 108.5 (-105)
We've been loving this prop bet throughout the postseason.
The total-strikeouts over hit with all sorts of room to spare in the Guardians-Yankees series, and it came close to hitting in the NLCS, even though it only went five games, four of which did not include a bottom half of the ninth inning.
Really, it's an "over/under 5.5 games in the series" bet, but with better odds—over 5.5 games is at -175—and with the possibility that it even hits in five games.
Getting to 109 in five contests would be a little under 22 strikeouts per game. But with how "whiffy" both of these pitching staffs have been in the postseason, that's feasible. The Astros (11.1 K/9) and Phillies (9.9 K/9) have combined for 21.0 K/9, as well as 22.4 strikeouts per game when you factor in that 18-inning Houston-Seattle affair.
World Series Prediction
8 of 8
Houston is the sizable favorite, and deservedly so.
The Astros were much better during the regular season, they have yet to lose a game in the postseason, they have six legitimate World Series MVP candidates just among their hitters and the entire pitching staff has turned into 2000 Pedro Martinez.
But I can't shake the notion that we are headed for an incredible series from which the Phillies emerge victorious.
The last three times a wild-card team made it to the World Series—Washington Nationals in 2019, San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals in 2014, St. Louis Cardinals in 2011—it went the full seven games with a wild-card team winning it all.
With Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler toeing the rubber for the first two games, the Phillies could steal one in Houston.
They have been on fire at home in the postseason, scoring 35 runs in those five contests (all wins). And after cheering their NFL Eagles to a 7-0 start against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, those Philly fans will be all sorts of raucous in the process of sending the series back to Houston with the Phillies leading 3-2 following Wednesday's Game 5.
The Game 7 hero will be an unlikely one. Maybe it's Noah Syndergaard pitching a couple of scoreless innings in relief, or Alec Bohm snapping out of his postseason funk with a massive bases-clearing double. But something magical will happen for Philadelphia, and the Astros will fall just short for the third time in four years.
Prediction: Phillies in 7
Salary figures via Spotrac.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
.png?w=480)
