Way-too-Soon 2023 NBA Trade Deadline Predictions
Imagine thinking there's any such thing as way-too-early 2023 NBA trade deadline predictions.
Remember how one moment, you're in the dead of summer, wondering how (and why) the Denver Nuggets managed to hash out a contract agreement with DeAndre Jordan 2.7 seconds into free agency? And then the next moment, your neighbors are putting up inflatable winter holiday decorations that billow in the wind like Kevin Durant's allegiance to the Brooklyn Nets?
The lead-up to the NBA trade deadline is a lot like that. One minute, you're wondering how long the Lauri Markkanen-era Utah Jazz dynasty will last. The next, you're glued to your Twitter feed hoping a report from the unverified, avatar-less @multiplesauces9 about Luka Doncic growing wary of playing in Christian Wood's shadow and requesting a trade is actually true.
This is all to say: Now is the time to fire off our trade-deadline predictions.
In the interest of maybe, potentially, possibly, actually getting a prediction correct, I've decided that any move before Feb. 10 at 3 p.m. EST falls under this umbrella. "Consequentially reasonable" will also be the theme of these crystal-ball gazings. I'm sticking to predictions about which you should give a damn but aren't senselessly nuclear.
To the Hall of Uniformed Prophecies we go!
The Action Will Start Earlier Than Normal
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Dec. 15 is deemed the unofficially official start of "NBA Trade Season," since that's when a majority of the free agents who signed contracts over the summer can first be dealt. But this demarcation line is beyond arbitrary.
The lion's share of free agents from the previous offseason aren't actually jettisoned just because they're eligible. This waiting period is more about teams figuring out what they have and who they are overall and then letting the buyers and sellers market develop based off those results.
That delay won't exist this year. There will be more action in the months leading up to the deadline than we're typically used to seeing. They may not be blockbuster moves, but these moves also won't purely happen because the Los Angeles Lakers are currently imploding. (More on this in a second!)
Instead, we should expect prospective sellers to act with more haste. Especially those who are too inadvertently good to be deliberately awful.
Team CEO Danny Ainge will not stand for the Utah Jazz being within earshot of .500, let alone above it, for this long. The San Antonio Spurs were supposed to be the most organically bad team in the league; they won't let all this winning slide, either. Other sellers will emerge from the woodwork, including those looking to out-lose franchises dealing themselves closer to top-three lottery odds.
Frankly, we should also expect the buyers market to materialize even quicker, as well. This year's competitive landscape is duh-eep. Want-to-be contenders who might fall behind the field (Miami, Philadelphia, Denver, Minnesota) or title hopefuls who are good-but-not-quite-finished (Phoenix, Brooklyn) can't afford to lay in wait forever. There is no margin for error at the top or even inside the middle this year. Teams will pounce to make upgrades accordingly. I think.
Russell Westbrook Gets Jettisoned to Indiana or San Antonio
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It is tempting to predict that Russell Westbrook won't be traded at all. The Los Angeles Lakers won't magically become title favorites if they move him and two firsts for Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl or Buddy Hield and Myles Turner. Their future selves might be better off riding it out with Russ or attempting to broker a buyout, taking their play-in-exit-or-worse medicine this season and recalibrating over the summer.
That's not happening. At least, it shouldn't. LeBron James is in his age-38 season and still really, really freaking good. Whether the Lakers have a plausible path to contention doesn't matter. They are obligated to act like they do, because LeBron (and Anthony Davis) exist. That calculus only changes if—*ferociously knocks on oakened mahogany*—one of the stars gets injured or if AD pulls a January 2019 and requests a trade. (Gasp at the latter if you must, but really munch on it and you'll have an AlonzoMourningNodding.gif epiphany.)
The Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs loom as the most natural trade partners. Indiana is even less interested in the here and now than most Victor Wembanyama oglers, and San Antonio has nearly $30 million in cap space they can use to cushion the blow for the small-market Lakers front office.
I won't take a stab at predicting how much it costs for L.A. to ship out Russ. At least one first-round pick and swap feels like the bare minimum. He's on an expiring contract, but his salary is so gargantuan ($47.1 million) teams won't acquire him with the intention of rerouting him elsewhere. And any squad that's willing to stomach the money won't have any interest in actually keeping him. His contract effectively becomes dead money they must waive or buy out.
Determining which theoretical package the Lakers might prefer is a real thinker. A healthy Turner and engaged Hield gives them more of a nudge than Richardson and Poeltl. But a healthy Turner and engaged Hield are massive asks. The Spurs also have the ability to send out contracts that don't add money to the Lakers' 2023-24 books. That's huge. Los Angeles is on track for semi-significant cap space next summer and can't just bank on junking the final year and $19.3 million left on Hield's deal over the offseason.
Regardless, Westbrook will be traded. Which is good. Because the Lakers are bad. And he seems very unhappy. Ending this marriage that never should've taken place is best for everyone.
These Notable Non-Stars will Get Traded
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Harrison Barnes, Sacramento Kings
Interpret this as "The Kings will cannonball into an impromptu tank" if you're feeling spicy. It's more about Barnes being on an expiring contract and Sacramento already having his replacement in Keegan Murray.
Plus, with the way Barnes has opened the season, moving him might actually prove to be anti-tanking, if we're being honest.
Jae Crowder, Phoenix Suns
Crowder is currently 'DNP - Takes Eric Bledsoe's Tweets Literally." So, yeah, he's gone. He has to be. The Suns can't afford to have one of their six best players on the payroll and not on the court.
Phoenix might take a bath on whatever value Crowder's expiring deal has remaining. So much leverage has been lost given how he closed the postseason and the fact that, you know, everyone around the league know what's what now. But Crowder's salary can at least be turned into a rotation player, even if it's not a top-six guy, or folded into a larger deal that upgrades the meat and potatoes of the Suns' rotation.
Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets
Eric Gordon is currently "I'm too old for this s--t" personified:
Please, Houston, send this man somewhere else. His age (33) may be prohibitive, but he still offers outside shooting and rim pressure without nuking your perimeter defense. His contract will also come off the books unless his team wins a championship or he makes an All-Star roster.
Gary Trent Jr., Toronto Raptors
GTJ has a player option for next season he's going to decline. The Raptors need his shooting, but they also have to start planning around new contracts for Fred VanVleet (player option) and Pascal Siakam (2024 free agent; extension-eligible now). OG Anunoby will be extension-eligible soon, as well. And Scottie Barnes' next deal will be here before you know it.
Will the Raptors pay what'll probably be $20-plus million per year to keep a non-star? I have my doubts. It'd be different if GTJ provided a little more on-ball creativity in the half-court, but he's no table-setter. And while moving him may jeopardize their 99th percentile outcome this season, team president Masai Ujiri hasn't assembled the team like someone overly concerned himself with the present.
Toronto is planning for the future—around Barnes. Competing now is a convenient luxury. Push comes to shove, it'll take the longer view and move GTJ at the deadline.
At Least 1 of Charlotte, Chicago, Sacramento and Washington Sell Hard
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This reads like a preseason prediction, but it has, in fact, been updated to no longer include the Portland Trail Blazers—who are surface-of-the-sun hot right now.
Looping in the Kings is weird, mostly because it's hard to envision what a selloff looks like. They're too invested in the short term to unload De'Aaron Fox or Domantas Sabonis (barring trade demands), and Harrison Barnes is presently fueling their winless start.
Moving Richaun Holmes is immaterial at this point, and it's probably too early to sell medium to low on Davion Mitchell. Does someone pony up big-time assets for Kevin Huerter? Chimezie Metu is, forever and always, untouchable. Truthfully, any one-year Kings tank more likely includes injuries to made-up body parts than a teardown. Still: Be on the lookout.
The Charlotte Hornets have been frisky to start the season, even without LaMelo Ball (sprained ankle). Steve Clifford-coached teams are known to overachieve, particularly on defense, but this honeymoon phase won't hold. Come February, if not sooner, only LaMelo and, at this rate, Nick Richards will be bolted down. A one-year nosedive makes too much sense for this franchise with LaMelo's extension looming.
Including the Chicago Bulls is not without cause. They are fragile. Zach LaVine says his left knee is fine, but he didn't play any 5-on-5 over the offseason and missed Chicago's first two games. That seems, uh, un-fine. This team can survive choppy availability and play from LaVine on offense. It is less equipped to navigate the defensive side without Lonzo Ball, who remains out after having a second procedure on his left knee.
This might be another team that steers into the lottery with shutdowns. Then again, the Bulls owe their first-round pick to Orlando with extremely loose top-four protection. Finishing with a bottom-four record will be 1) terribly difficult in the eventual tanking climate and 2) only gives you a 52.1 percent chance of nabbing a top-four pick. Deliberately exploring rock bottom might be out of the question.
No such limitations exist for the Washington Wizards. Their 2023 first-round obligation to the New York Knicks is lottery protected. And they can tank their hearts out. It doesn't have to involve moving Bradley Beal, who can't be dealt until January and who has, for some reason, a no-trade clause. But the Wizards have a number of good, middle-ground players they can ship out to fire up the gap-year tank. After Charlotte, they feel like the squad most likely to do so. Don't rule out "How Were The Wizards Supposed To Know There Would Be Consequences For Their Decisions" trade rumors surrounding Bradley Beal, either.
Cleveland and Miami Trade for a Member of Their Go-To Closing Lineup
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Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat need to iron out the fifth spot in their most important lineups. And given how good both should also be, they each have the incentive to address that issue in-season.
Cleveland seems more likely to wait. Its core is younger. That core is also ready to win now. Dean Wade is a nice find, and just sort of everywhere he's supposed to be, but the Cavs need higher-end solutions. Playing Caris LeVert at the 3 will have its defensive (and probably offensive) limitations once Darius Garland (eyelid laceration) is ready to rock. Through three games, Isaac Okoro has as many points (four) as turnovers (four). Cedi Osman is more of a 3.5 than 3 on his best days.
Trading for Donovan Mitchell drained Cleveland's draft-pick stash, but it's not without assets. LeVert's expiring contract can be a quality salary anchor if the Cavs don't view him as part of the bigger picture. Osman's $7.4 million expiring deal (2023-24 is non-guaranteed) can be viewed in the same vein. Rebuilding teams should be willing to take a flier on Okoro's defense and the idea of his off-ball slashing. Cleveland may not have the juice for targets like Gary Trent Jr. and Harrison Barnes(?), but someone in the realm of Josh Richardson, Joe Harris or Cody Martin might be up their alley.
Miami has flexibility to trade future firsts, definitely needs to diversify the frontcourt spot vacated by P.J. Tucker and can use Duncan Robinson's deal (three years, $57.5 million remaining) to bring back sizable dollars. A Jae Crowder reunion would be perfect but requires a third team; Phoenix shouldn't be turning Crowder and another contract into Robinson and a pick.
Kelly Oubre Jr. would be interesting. Ditto for K.J. Martin. Bojan Bogdanovic, too. And Barnes. And Marcus Morris Sr. And, oh yes, Lauri Markkanen.
The Heat can also poke around the star market if names that jack up their half-court offense hit the block. Tyler Herro is tough to move after signing his extension, but Miami can finagle enough unprotected future firsts to skulk around any hypothetical Zach LaVine or Bradley Beal talks. Whatever the deal, the Heat will do something. They need to.
The Brooklyn Nets will Trade at Least 1 Star
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This is a blisteringly hot take if you trust the Brooklyn Nets to endure the trials and tribulations of the entire regular season without any drama whatsoever.
Put another way: This is not a blisteringly hot take.
To be fair, Brooklyn has not been a magnet for theatrics to start the year. But that can change on a whim.
The Nets are already struggling amid Ben Simmons' lack of offensive aggression and attempting to play him with non-shooting bigs. They are averaging 109.8 points per 100 possessions (29th percentile) when he's alongside Nicolas Claxton and 87.5 (not a typo) when he's next to Day'Ron Sharpe.
Simmons-without-a-big lineups have been deployed less than sparingly. The defense has been messy in almost every situation. Brooklyn is getting cold-cocked by some unsustainably volcanic opponent three-point shooting but can't grab a rebound if Kyrie Irving's Google search history depended on it and gets burned even when it has time to set up. The Nets are 28th in points allowed per possession after a made shot, according to Inpredictable.
Maybe Brooklyn survives the turmoil. Count on that at your own peril. Kevin Durant reportedly requested a trade over the offseason and then pushed for the organization to jettison both general manager Sean Marks and head coach Steve Nash. Brooklyn gave Kyrie permission to seek sign-and-trade scenarios before he picked up his player option.
This team is essentially the This Is Fine meme, but with smoke trickling in under the doorway rather than a raging inferno. The thing is: The latter comes later. At least one of the Nets stars will ask for out or be moved in an attempt to start fresh—or something. Too much has already happened for this to play out any other way.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Tuesday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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