College Football Playoff Projections: Week 9 Rankings and Bowl Forecast
Only one more week until the College Football Playoff selection committee weighs in with its first batch of rankings for the 2022 season. That inaugural show will come Nov. 1, and our next batch of bowl projections will run shortly after that clandestine Top 25 becomes public knowledge.
We're not waiting for the official rankings to make new CFP projections, though.
And while nothing has changed in our Top Four from one week ago, there were significant shake-ups in the non-CFP New Year's Six tier as a result of the Clemson-Syracuse, Oregon-UCLA and Ole Miss-LSU outcomes.
Further down in the bowl projections, the Miami Hurricanes have fallen out of the picture altogether after an eight-turnover disaster against Duke, and the #BowlMath is getting mighty interesting as the quest to find 82 bowl-eligible teams grows more difficult by the week.
Please note that these are bowl projections and not some sort of "if the season ended today" exercise. To that end, the combination of each team's win-total betting line and its projected win total according to ESPN's Football Power Index are more important than its record or AP ranking.
The bowl games have been broken into tiers and are presented in ascending order of magnitude.
For the first four tiers of bowls, we'll discuss (when applicable) one team is projected for a better bowl than it was one week ago as well as a team checking in a bit lower in the aftermath of Week 8 results. After touching on the updated CFP projections, we'll wrap things up with a conference-by-conference breakdown of which teams are projected to go to which bowls.
Group of 5 Bowls
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Bahamas (Dec. 16): Buffalo (5-3) vs. UTSA (6-2)
Cure (Dec. 16): Ball State (4-4) vs. Georgia Southern (5-3)
Frisco (Dec. 17): Southern Miss (4-3) vs. UNLV (4-4)
LendingTree (Dec. 17): Bowling Green (4-4) vs. South Alabama (5-2)
New Mexico (Dec. 17): Fresno State (3-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (3-4)
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 19): Appalachian State (4-3) vs. San Diego State (4-3)
Boca Raton (Dec. 20): Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3) vs. North Texas (4-4)
Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 20): Ohio (5-3) vs. Wyoming (5-3)
New Orleans (Dec. 21): Troy (6-2) vs. Western Kentucky (5-3)
Independence (Dec. 23): Army (3-4) vs. SMU (3-4)
Hawai'i (Dec. 24): Air Force (5-3) vs. UAB (4-3)
Camellia (Dec. 27): Marshall (4-3) vs. Rice (4-3)
Arizona (Dec. 30): Eastern Michigan (5-3) vs. San Jose State (4-2)
Moving Up: Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green hasn't gone bowling since 2015, and after a 1-3 start which included a 59-57 seven-overtime loss to FCS school Eastern Kentucky, it was not looking good this year, either.
But the Falcons have rallied, eking out narrow victories over Akron and Miami (Ohio) prior to a convincing win over Central Michigan on Saturday. It wasn't exactly a well-disciplined showing, as BGSU committed 17 penalties. However, a plus-four turnover margin paved the way to a 34-18 victory.
The Falcons are off this weekend before midweek MACtion gets underway. They'll have back-to-back Wednesday night home games against Western Michigan and Kent State before wrapping up the regular season with two straight Tuesday road games against Toledo and Ohio. BGSU will be a substantial underdog in the latter two contests, so it better win at least one of the upcoming home games if it wants to end the bowl drought.
Right now, there are four MAC schools projected for between 5.2-5.4 wins: Ball State, Bowling Green, Kent State and Miami (Ohio). At least one of those teams will get to six wins—probably two of them. And as the two with 4-4 records, we're rolling with BGSU and Ball State in this week's projection.
Sliding Down: SMU Mustangs
After falling behind 17-0 early in the second quarter, SMU put forth a valiant effort at a comeback against then-AP No. 21 Cincinnati. The Mustangs scored a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns, but a failed two-point conversion after the latter TD left them on the wrong end of a 29-27 final score.
It's the third time this season that SMU has lost by a one-score margin to a team that currently has at least six wins, as it previously came up short against both TCU and Maryland. Throw in the 22-point loss to UCF and the Mustangs are sitting at 3-4 with nary a quality win.
They have a critical game this week at Tulsa. Both teams are currently 3-4, each with games remaining against Tulane, Memphis, Houston and South Florida. (SMU will host Houston and Memphis; Tulsa gets Tulane and USF at home). The winner of Saturday's showdown will enter November in respectable shape for a bowl, while the loser will likely fall shy of six wins.
Group of 5 vs. Power 5 or Pool Bowls
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Fenway (Dec. 17): Pittsburgh (4-3) vs. Tulane (7-1)
LA (Dec. 17): Boise State (5-2) vs. Washington State (4-3)
Armed Forces (Dec. 22): BYU (4-4) vs. Houston (4-3)
Gasparilla (Dec. 23): Florida (4-3) vs. Kansas (5-3)
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Iowa (3-4) vs. Toledo (5-3)
Birmingham (Dec. 27): Coastal Carolina (6-1) vs. Memphis (4-4)
First Responder (Dec. 27): East Carolina (5-3) vs. Oklahoma (4-3)
Military (Dec. 28): Louisville (4-3) vs. UCF (5-2)
Moving Up: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
The Chants had this past weekend off and got smoked by Old Dominion the last time they played.
However, they are a new arrival in this tier, which is a testament to the current "are there even going to be 82 bowl-eligible teams" state of affairs.
One of the spots in the Birmingham Bowl is supposed to go to either the ACC or the SEC, but both of those leagues were fresh out of likely six-win teams by the team we reached this point. (Virginia, Miami, Auburn and Missouri are all sitting at 3-4 and projected for fewer than 5.5 wins. It's likely that one of them will get to 6-6, but let's at least see what happens this coming week in the Miami-Virginia game before putting one of those teams in the projected field.)
The other Power Five leagues aren't in any better shape, either. Iowa State, Michigan State and Stanford are the "first team out" from the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12, respectively, but they're in the same boat as the aforementioned ACC and SEC squads.
In fact, once you take bowl-ineligible James Madison out of the mix, there are only 79 teams currently projected for 5.7 or more wins.
We'll give it at least one more week, but it's almost time to start working the Academic Progress Rate (APR) scores of projected 5-7 teams into the bowl mix.
Sliding Down: Kansas Jayhawks
The last time Kansas won at least five games in a season was in 2009, when the Jayhawks started out 5-0 before losing each of their final seven games to begin what is currently the longest bowl drought among FBS programs.
And, well, we're starting to really worry that ignominious history might be repeating itself.
The Jayhawks are still respectable, at least on offense. They've averaged 32 points during this three-game losing streak against TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor. They just aren't quite as electric as they were with a healthy Jalon Daniels at quarterback, and the defense is pretty pathetic.
In this week's loss to the Bears, Kansas fell behind 28-3 in the first half before at least making a game of it in the second half, trimming the margin to 28-23 midway through the fourth quarter. But it came up short, and there might not be another win left on the schedule.
The Jayhawks are idle this week before a November gauntlet against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas State, who have a combined record of 20-9. And if Kansas does finish 5-7, its APR score isn't pretty.
Power 5 Bowls with Potential to Be Fun
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Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 27): Baylor (4-3) vs. Liberty (7-1)
Holiday (Dec. 28): Florida State (4-3) vs. Washington (6-2)
Liberty (Dec. 28): Texas A&M (3-4) vs. Texas Tech (4-3)
Texas (Dec. 28): Arkansas (4-3) vs. Kansas State (5-2)
Pinstripe (Dec. 29): Notre Dame (4-3) vs. Wisconsin (4-4)
Duke's Mayo (Dec. 30): Duke (5-3) vs. Purdue (5-3)
Sun (Dec. 30): NC State (5-2) vs. Oregon State (6-2)
Music City (Dec. 31): Minnesota (4-3) vs. South Carolina (5-2)
Moving Up: Duke Blue Devils
After back-to-back losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, Duke was rapidly approaching "six wins might be a photo finish" territory.
With games remaining against Boston College and Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils should have been able to get there even if they had lost at Miami this week. But, instead, they went out and forced eight turnovers in a 45-21 victory over the Hurricanes.
Duke actually trailed 21-17 early in the third quarter, but Miami spectacularly imploded from there. After a turnover on downs, the 'Canes went fumble-interception-pick-six-fumble on its final four possessions to hand Duke a blowout win.
The Blue Devils entered the week with an impressive plus-eight turnover margin, but they are now second in the nation at plus-14 overall with a preposterously unsustainable plus-13 margin in the fumbles department. They are one win away from getting back to bowl season for the first time since 2018.
Sliding Down: Texas A&M Aggies
Bouncing back from losing WR Ainias Smith to a knee injury in Week 4 was always going to be a challenge, yet it remains continually dumbfounding that the Aggies and their damn-near $100 million head coach—not to mention their way-better-than-most collectives in terms of name, image and likeness—can't figure out how to run an offense.
Texas A&M has now lost three consecutive games and has failed to reach 25 points or 400 total yards in six straight contests.
The Aggies even had an extra week off to prepare for South Carolina, but they still trailed 17-0 in a heartbeat and evidently didn't work on much of anything on offense, outside of (wisely) making sure to get their lone playmaker, Devon Achane, at least 25 touches for a change.
It wasn't enough, though, and A&M is now 3-4 with a remaining schedule of Ole Miss, Florida, at Auburn, UMass and LSU.
The Aggies should certainly beat the lowly Minutemen, but will the preseason AP No. 6 team get to six wins?
Top Non-New Year's 6 Bowls
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Las Vegas (Dec. 17): LSU (6-2) vs. UCLA (6-1)
Alamo (Dec. 29): Oklahoma State (6-1) vs. Utah (5-2)
Cheez-It (Dec. 29): North Carolina (6-1) vs. Texas (5-3)
Gator (Dec. 30): Kentucky (5-2) vs. Syracuse (6-1)
Citrus (Jan. 2): Illinois (6-1) vs. Ole Miss (7-1)
ReliaQuest (Jan. 2): Maryland (6-2) vs. Mississippi State (5-3)
Moving Up: Maryland Terrapins
Raise your hand if you had Maryland penciled in two months ago as the fourth Big Ten team to reach bowl eligibility.
There better not be any hands in the air.
The Terrapins had to play their latest game against Northwestern without quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa after he suffered a knee injury in last week's win over Indiana, but running back Roman Hemby picked up the slack in a big way. Hemby set career highs in both rushing yards (179) and touchdowns (three) in the 31-24 victory, with his 75-yard scamper late in the fourth quarter proving to be the difference.
Maryland has this coming week off before a rough three-week stretch (at Wisconsin, at Penn State, vs. Ohio State), but maybe the Terps can steal one of those if Tagovailoa is able to use this bye to rehab and get back on the field in November. They also wrap up the regular season with a home game against Rutgers that they should win, so maybe they get to eight wins for the first time since 2010.
Sliding Down: Ole Miss Rebels
One week ago, the Rebels were on the short list of viable candidates for the College Football Playoff.
But after getting drilled 45-20 by LSU, can Ole Miss even salvage a trip to a New Year's Six bowl?
It dropped from No. 7 to No. 15 in the AP poll following this loss, and there is very likely at least one more regular-season loss still to come. The Rebels have road games left against Texas A&M and Arkansas as well as home games against Alabama and Mississippi State. ESPN's Football Power Index puts their "win out" likelihood at 1.7 percent and the projected win total at just 9.2.
Still, 10 regular-season wins remains within the realm of possibility, which has only been done once before in program history—last season. Despite the loss, the Lane Train is still chugging along quite well.
Non-CFP New Year's 6 Bowls
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Orange (Dec. 30): Penn State (6-1) vs. Wake Forest (6-1)
Sugar (Dec. 31): TCU (7-0) vs. Alabama (7-1)
Cotton (Jan. 2): Cincinnati (6-1) vs. USC (6-1)
Rose (Jan. 2): Michigan (7-0) vs. Oregon (6-1)
The Battle for the No. 4 Seed
TCU has reeled off four consecutive wins against ranked opponents.
Granted, the Horned Frogs had to rally from a seven-point third-quarter deficit at Kansas before falling behind 24-7 in the first half against Oklahoma State and 28-10 in the first half against Kansas State. Those slow starts seem to be keeping people from taking TCU seriously as a threat to reach the College Football Playoff.
Nevertheless, the Horned Frogs are one of six remaining undefeated teams, and they now have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way.
While the Michigan-Ohio State and Georgia-Tennessee games will ensure we end the regular season with no more than four undefeated teams, TCU's toughest remaining hurdle is the road game against now-unranked Texas.
If the Horned Frogs had either the success over the past few years or the preseason expectations that Clemson has/had, they would be the clear favorite for the No. 4 seed. As is, there still seems to be this notion that they will inevitably lose at least one game and might not even be favored in the Big 12 championship against Kansas State or Oklahoma State.
They are right there, though, alongside Michigan and Tennessee, with Oregon making a spirited push back into the conversation with six consecutive wins with at least 41 points scored.
Because of that season-opening blowout loss to Georgia, the Ducks would need to win out (including Pac-12 championship) to have any real case. That feels doable with how potent this offense has been lately.
And, of course, we can't forget about Alabama, which bounced back from that loss to Tennessee by suffocating Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide have this weekend off before returning for consecutive road games against LSU and Ole Miss. Win those games as well as the SEC championship against Georgia/Tennessee and they could still end up with the No. 2 seed.
Based on current projections, though, we're looking at No. 4 Tennessee, No. 5 Michigan, No. 6 TCU, No. 7 Alabama and No. 8 Oregon, with USC, Penn State and Oklahoma State still in the running.
College Football Playoff
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Peach (Dec. 31): No. 1 Georgia (7-0) vs. No. 4 Tennessee (7-0)
Fiesta (Dec. 31): No. 2 Ohio State (7-0) vs. No. 3 Clemson (8-0)
National Championship (Jan. 9): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No change from one week ago, though Clemson sure did flirt with disaster at home against Syracuse.
After scoring on its opening drive, Clemson got down inside the Syracuse 35 on four consecutive possessions, only to come away with three points. And, really, it was negative-four points if you consider what they lost when DJ Uiagalelei fumbled in the red zone and Ja'Had Carter scooped it up for a 90-yard Syracuse touchdown.
Two more turnovers into the third quarter and Clemson threw a bit of a Hail Mary, bringing in true freshman QB Cade Klubnik in hopes of rallying the troops.
And it worked, thanks in large part to some killer penalties.
A late hit out of bounds by Elijah Fuentes-Cundiff, a late hit personal foul by Marlowe Wax and a third-down defensive pass interference against Isaiah Johnson—plus excellent defense by Clemson in the second half—paved the way for a come-from-behind, CFP-preserving victory for the Tigers.
Elsewhere, Ohio State annihilated Iowa 54-10, Tennessee made quick work of UT Martin 65-24, and Georgia had the week off to prepare for its upcoming showdowns with Florida and Tennessee.
Could we see some shake-ups in the final weekend of October, though? Tennessee hosts No. 19 Kentucky. Ohio State travels to No. 13 Penn State. And Florida could at least make things interesting in Jacksonville against the top-ranked Bulldogs.
Stay tuned.
Bowl Games by Conference
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Here is the breakdown of bowl projections listed alphabetically by conference. New Year's Six games have been italicized and underlined to help those of you who just scrolled to the bottom to find the marquee bowls.
American Athletic (seven teams): Cincinnati (Cotton), East Carolina (First Responder), Houston (Armed Forces), Memphis (Birmingham), SMU (Independence), Tulane (Fenway), UCF (Military)
Atlantic Coast (nine teams): Clemson (Fiesta), Duke (Duke's Mayo), Florida State (Holiday), Louisville (Military), North Carolina (Cheez-It), NC State (Sun), Pittsburgh (Fenway), Syracuse (Gator), Wake Forest (Orange)
Big 12 (eight teams): Baylor (Guaranteed Rate), Kansas (Gasparilla), Kansas State (Texas), Oklahoma (First Responder), Oklahoma State (Alamo), TCU (Sugar), Texas (Cheez-It), Texas Tech (Liberty)
Big Ten (nine teams): Illinois (Citrus), Iowa (Quick Lane), Maryland (ReliaQuest), Michigan (Rose), Minnesota (Music City), Ohio State (Fiesta), Penn State (Orange), Purdue (Duke's Mayo), Wisconsin (Pinstripe)
Conference USA (six teams): Middle Tennessee (New Mexico), North Texas (Boca Raton), Rice (Camellia), UAB (Hawai'i), UTSA (Bahamas), Western Kentucky (New Orleans)
Independents (four teams): Army (Independence), BYU (Armed Forces), Liberty (Guaranteed Rate), Notre Dame (Pinstripe)
Mid-American (six teams): Ball State (Cure), Bowling Green (LendingTree), Buffalo (Bahamas), Eastern Michigan (Arizona), Ohio (Famous Idaho Potato), Toledo (Quick Lane)
Mountain West (seven teams): Air Force (Hawai'i), Boise State (LA), Fresno State (New Mexico), San Diego State (Myrtle Beach), San Jose State (Arizona), UNLV (Frisco), Wyoming (Famous Idaho Potato)
Pac-12 (seven teams): Oregon (Rose), Oregon State (Sun), UCLA (Las Vegas), USC (Cotton), Utah (Alamo), Washington (Holiday), Washington State (LA)
Southeastern (11 teams): Alabama (Sugar), Arkansas (Texas), Florida (Gasparilla), Georgia (Peach), Kentucky (Gator), LSU (Las Vegas), Mississippi State (ReliaQuest), Ole Miss (Citrus), South Carolina (Music City), Tennessee (Peach), Texas A&M (Liberty)
Sun Belt (eight teams): Appalachian State (Myrtle Beach), Coastal Carolina (Birmingham), Georgia Southern (Cure), Louisiana (Boca Raton), Marshall (Camellia), South Alabama (LendingTree), Southern Miss (Frisco), Troy (New Orleans)
Kerry Miller covers college football, men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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