MLB Playoff Picture 2022: Hot Takes, Top Storylines, Odds for ALCS, NLCS

No result is guaranteed in playoff baseball, but the Houston Astros have as clear a path to victory as any team will have in the 2022 MLB postseason on Wednesday.

Houston starts the ALCS with Justin Verlander on the mound against a New York Yankees team that clinched their spot in the series on Tuesday afternoon.

The ALDS celebration—albeit a mild one—the travel from New York and the pitching matchup all favor the Astros.

Verlander also comes into Wednesday with some personal motivation to put in a strong performance after he was rocked by the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of the ALDS.

An impressive pitching performance or two is almost guaranteed in the NLCS between Aaron Nola and Blake Snell.

The first game between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres featured two runs off solo homers from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

The weather will be warmer in the afternoon in San Diego for Game 2, but the preferable hitting conditions could be negated by the strikeout power of the two starting pitchers.

Wednesday Schedule and Odds

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 18: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a home run during the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres in game one of the National League Championship Series at PETCO Park on October 18, 2022 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

NLCS Game 2

Philadelphia (+100; bet $100 to win $100) at San Diego (-120; bet $120 to win $100) (4:35 p.m. ET, FS1)

ALCS Game 1

New York Yankees (+165) at Houston (-195) (7:37 p.m. ET, TBS)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Expected to Ride Verlander to Victory

Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 11: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros walks back to the dugout during the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday, October 11, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Houston Astros are expected to come away from their ALCS opener with the New York Yankees with a 1-0 lead.

Houston has the advantage on the mound, with Justin Verlander taking on Jameson Taillon, and the team will be well-rested after ending its ALDS matchup against the Seattle Mariners on Saturday.

Verlander did not pitch well in ALDS Game 1, as he lasted four innings after conceding six earned runs on 10 hits. That was more of an outlier to his overall form this season and in past playoff trips.

The 39-year-old kept the Yankees offense at bay the last time he faced them in the postseason in the 2019 ALCS. He gave up six earned runs in 13.2 innings in that series.

The Houston ace ended the regular season by not conceding a hit in three of his final six starts.

The more dominant version of Verlander is expected to show up against a tired Yankees team that had to get through five games and two postponements in the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians.

The nine-time All-Star threw seven innings of one-run baseball against the Yankees on June 24. A similar performance would be ideal for the Astros to save some bullpen arms for the rest of the series.

Houston should have confidence that it can build a lead for Verlander since it produced six runs and 10 hits against Taillon on June 23. The 30-year-old conceded a pair of runs in extra-inning relief work in ALDS Game 2.

The Astros appear to have all the advantages on their side for Game 1, and it would be a huge blow to them if the Yankees found a way to steal a win with better starting pitching looming for the rest of the series.

NLCS Game 2 Should Replicate Opener

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 14: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves during the second inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 14, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Two swings of the bat determined NLCS Game 1 on Tuesday night.

The same small margin of error should be in place when Aaron Nola and Blake Snell take the mound on Wednesday.

Nola has not conceded an earned run in 12.2 postseason innings, and he allowed just nine hits and struck out 12 batters in those outings.

Snell let up three earned runs in his 8.2 innings of work this postseason and punched out six Los Angeles Dodgers in his last appearance.

Nola and Snell could total a high number of strikeouts on Wednesday after Zack Wheeler and Yu Darvish combined to fan 15 batters in Game 1. The two bullpens combined for five additional punchouts in the eighth and ninth innings.

The strikeout power of both pitchers could negate the impact of the warm hitting conditions during an afternoon game in San Diego. The shadows at Petco Park may give both hurlers a larger advantage in some spots as well.

One or two big hits could show up while Nola and Snell are on the mound, but do not expect any long innings against two of the sharpest starting pitchers left in the postseason.

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