Every NBA Team's Top Breakout Candidate
The 2022-23 NBA season is barrelling toward opening night.
A series of breakouts will follow shortly thereafter.
It happens like clockwork, and it's part of the reason why the dawn of a new 82-game marathon brings with it so much excitement. Hoopers are constantly evolving, and a select batch of them will level up every season.
From potential first-time All-Stars to second-teamers ready to shift into larger reserve roles, let's lay out the top breakout candidate for all 30 clubs.
Atlanta Hawks: Onyeka Okongwu
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The eye test and the stat sheet both agree: Okongwu is ready for a leap year.
His biggest obstacle to this point has been a lack of opportunity. Significant floor time may not elude him much longer, though, given the offseason departure of Danilo Gallinari and the trade winds that perpetually swirl around Clint Capela and John Collins.
Okongwu is already up to the task on defense, and on offense, his finishing is ready, too. His per-36-minutes marks of 14.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 1.9 assists paint him as a potential juggernaut. Clearing him for takeoff could be the final tweak needed for the Hawks to soar into the elite tier.
Boston Celtics: Sam Hauser
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Boston isn't exactly brewing with breakout candidates. Most of the Shamrocks are well-established at this point. Among the few who aren't, several have sizable obstacles in their path. For Robert Williams III, it's the knee surgery that will delay the start to his season. With Payton Pritchard, it's the backcourt congestion that could keep him off the floor. For Grant Williams, it's the non-zero chance that last season was actually his breakout effort.
Sam Hauser admittedly has his own challenges, none bigger than the fact that he has rarely hit the NBA hardwood. As a rookie last season, he logged all of 158 minutes across 26 contests.
Still, his path to notable playing time opened up when Danilo Gallinari went down with an ACL tear, which quite possibly made Hauser's long-range shooting an essential part of this offense. He should get a horde of open looks given the quality of players he's surrounded by, and if he adds enough else as a clever cutter, willing passer and capable team defender, he can surprise a lot of people with the quality and quantity of his play.
Brooklyn Nets: Nic Claxton
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The Nets have gradually increased Claxton's exposure over his first three seasons in Brooklyn, but the spotlight could find him early and often this time around.
He is the club's only big man who was a part of last season's rotation, and everything he did then should grant him more floor time now. His skill set intrigues nearly across the board—free-throw shooting being the one glaring exception—and if the Nets pick up the pace, that should allow him to make better use of his athleticism and mobility.
His finishing should be enhanced by this club's shot-creating stars, and his interior defense will be invaluable when the bulk of this roster does its best work on the offensive end. As long as his free-throw shooting doesn't force him off the floor, he could be phenomenal.
Charlotte Hornets: P.J. Washington
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Washington has twice been a full-time starter, averaging better than 30 minutes a night in each of those seasons. He has always averaged double-digit points and only once failed to average double-digit shots.
He feels much more like a known commodity than a lot of the players listed here.
And yet, Hornets fans might have a hard time recognizing him this season, as Charlotte needs him to display an assertiveness like never before. With Miles Bridges out of the equation and Gordon Hayward forever fighting the injury bug, there should be myriad shots and opportunities up for grabs. Washington, who has served as a Swiss Army knife to this point, could adhere to this suddenly neon-green light and skyrocket his points and assists columns in the process.
Chicago Bulls: Patrick Williams
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Bulls fans are apparently getting antsy with Williams, who elicited the wrong kind of uproar when he was pulled from the starting lineup this preseason. He is by far the most important piece of the franchise's future, so it's not at all surprising to see such an emotional reaction.
Still, setting those emotions aside, there is nothing to worry about with the No. 4 pick of the 2020 draft. He's a 21-year-old who has played all of 88 games at this level. It's too early to really track any developmental milestones.
Plus, what he has shown is mostly positive. He fits the mold of the coveted big-wing defender, offers ample amount of versatility at that end and owns career connection rates of 49 percent overall and 41.3 percent from range. His healthy, assertive version can still be a difference-maker, as he showed in last season's playoffs, which he closed by totaling 43 points, 11 rebounds and seven three-pointers over his final two outings.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
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Last season, Mobley opened his career with a 17-point, nine-rebound, six-assist eruption and basically never let up from there.
By year's end, he had already cracked the Association's short list of top-shelf stoppers while subtly hinting at his towering two-way potential. He dazzled as a pick-and-roll screener and close-range finisher, but when he aggressively looked for shots, that's when the imaginations really ran wild. He attempted more than 15 shots eight times and averaged an impressive 24.1 points in those contests.
It's hard to say how much his offensive responsibilities will increase this season, since the Cavs' attack will run through All-Star guards Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell first. Having said that, Mobley has the most potential of anyone in the organization, so Cleveland won't hold him back if he proves he's ready for much more.
Dallas Mavericks: Josh Green
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Green, the No. 18 pick of the 2020 draft, entered the Association with NBA-level athleticism. He has been feverishly working to get some NBA-level skills since.
His defense is there already, and his finishing is ferocious. However, the glimpses of outside shooting and secondary playmaking are the areas that could clear him for take-off.
There isn't a ton of volume anywhere on his stat sheet, but there are still areas of encouragement. Like shooting 35.9 percent from distance last season, for instance. Or that he's dished out 2.6 assists per 36 minutes for his career. If you trust his talent, you might share the belief that it's only a matter of time before everything falls into place for him.
Denver Nuggets: Bones Hyland
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The full-strength Nuggets boast one of basketball's best starting fives, but they still need significant support from their second unit. After trading away both Monte Morris and Will Barton this offseason, Denver has essentially tasked Hyland, the No. 26 pick in 2021, with keeping the bench mob afloat.
It was a smart wager to make.
Hyland sizzled in his first NBA season, particularly down the stretch. Over his final 20 outings, he averaged 14 points on 47.8/41.2/83.9 shooting and 4.6 assists against only 1.4 turnovers. He'll have every chance to build off that success, and with his combination of unwavering confidence, deep shooting range and slippery shot creation, he can pull it off.
Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham
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Folks, there's nothing wrong with grabbing low-hanging fruit. It has to get picked, too.
Stardom seems imminent for Cunningham, last summer's top overall pick. Once he found his footing as a freshman, he stampeded through the campaign's final stretch and tallied elite numbers along the way. Stretch out his post-All-Star averages of 21.1 points, 6.5 assists and 5.7 rebounds across the entire season, and you'd have a line only five players met.
Cunningham doesn't even have a great jumper yet, and the Detroit roster he leads is very much a work in progress. The fact that neither of those things has held him back suggests things will get interesting in a hurry as his game and his team both mature.
Golden State Warriors: James Wiseman
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A 7-footer with both mobility and bounce, Wiseman's physical tools are top-notch. That's why he went second overall in the 2020 draft despite playing just 69 minutes over three games in college.
The question was whether he had the skills and feel for the game needed to maximize his impact, and the inquiry went unanswered during a rookie season cut short by a knee injury that wiped out his 2021-22 campaign, too.
The rehab time apparently treated him well, though, as he has looked superb this preseason. He's a more reliable finisher at and above the rim, and he's better at making defensive plays within the team system. Frankly, he looks an awful lot like a difference-maker, which is a scary concept considering this club is only a few months removed from a champagne-soaked championship celebration.
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green
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Green looked like the best scorer in the 2021 draft class, and while it took him a little time to live up to the label, he became a fire-breathing bucket once the switch flipped.
In 17 March contests, he averaged 20.8 points on 48.0/39.7/76.6 shooting. As if that wasn't enough, he upped the ante in five April outings to an absurd 28.6 points on 49.5/39.1/75.8 shooting. That's best-in-the-business kind of output.
Green hasn't turned 21 yet—he won't until February—and his youth sometimes surfaces in questionable decision-making and optimistic shot selection. Still, you love to see the confidence, particularly when it's attached to such an obviously talented player. As his game continues to evolve, his stat sheet will only grow sillier.
Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton
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Haliburton didn't have a ton of time to impress the Pacers last season, as he only arrived in the Circle City as part of a deadline deal with the Sacramento Kings. Turns out, he didn't need it. After an electric 26-game run—featuring 17.5 points, 9.6 assists and 50.2/41.6/84.9 shooting—he had already played his way into centerpiece status.
"We're gonna build our team around him," Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan told Alex Kennedy of Basketball News. "We see him as hopefully being the next Reggie Miller. We had a Reggie Miller mural painted on a building in downtown Indianapolis, and I think our dream is that one day Tyrese will have [his own] up somewhere in downtown Indianapolis."
That's about as ambitious as an executive can get, yet Haliburton's scorching run justifies the belief. He constantly brings the best out of his teammates, which is arguably the single greatest impact a hooper can have. And when he's comfortable calling his own number—he doesn't always shoot as much as he should—he can be a three-level scorer who impresses with both volume and efficiency.
Los Angeles Clippers: Terance Mann
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There aren't a ton of breakout candidates in L.A., as the championship-chasing Clippers have loaded up on established talent. You essentially have three choices: Mann, Amir Coffey and Brandon Boston. You could bump that list to four if you think Luke Kennard hasn't peaked, but there probably isn't much space between his present level and ceiling at this point.
The aforementioned trio all have their own arguments, but Mann seems the likeliest among them to lock down a sizable role with this win-now squad. If he does, he can dig even deeper into a skill set that has impressed ever since he started shattering expectations after being made the 48th pick of the 2019 draft.
He seemingly always finds a way to make an impact, in part because his versatility allows him to find his place within the flow of the game. He has already played every position but center and served as everything from an energizer and tenacious defender to a rim attacker and spot-up shooter. His ability to adapt on the fly will be crucial to keeping him on the court with the Clippers' stars.
Los Angeles Lakers: Austin Reaves
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It's tempting to go with Lonnie Walker IV here and assume the same purple-and-gold pixie dust that was sprinkled on Malik Monk last season will lead to similar growth from Walker, but Reaves' adaptability gives him a greater chance to seize a substantial role.
"Austin can fit in any group" LeBron James told reporters. "A guy who plays extremely hard, plays well, doesn't make mistakes, always in the right place at the right time. ... His IQ is very high. He fits in any group, and it's always good to be on the floor with him."
Reaves might function as a Swiss Army knife in L.A., which could prevent him from tallying the typical statistical marks of a breakout. Still, his playing time could see a significant spark, and if it does, it feels like a near certainty he'll make the most of his minutes.
Memphis Grizzlies: Ziaire Williams
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This is a bit of a leap of faith, but Williams is the kind of prospect who makes you want to believe.
His (absolute) best-case scenario includes enshrinement among the Association's uber-elite. His size, handle and separation skills give him featured-scorer potential, while his length and instincts point toward a towering ceiling on the defensive end.
Grizzlies fans didn't see that potential manifest into much last season, but the fact that he made 31 starts as a raw rookie highlights Memphis' commitment to giving him every chance to succeed. With Jaren Jackson Jr. down early with a foot injury, Williams has an opportunity to up his offensive involvement and keep it high over the course of the campaign.
Miami Heat: Max Strus
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Strus wasn't an NBA regular until last season, and he still finished the campaign by swiping the starting spot of Miami's $90 million man, Duncan Robinson.
It's possible Strus was just getting started.
Like Robinson, Strus shines brightest as a sharpshooter (2.7 threes per game, 41 percent shooting last season), but he has more layers to his game. He offers more resistance on the defensive end, and he isn't afraid to attack the rim when he has a lane. He could clear 30 minutes a night this season (he logged 23.3 last time around), and the additional floor time should elevate the rest of his stat sheet.
Milwaukee Bucks: Jevon Carter
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Like some other win-now clubs discussed here, the Bucks are short on breakout candidates. You could craft a pitch for Jordan Nwora or Grayson Allen, but Carter edges them out for a couple of reasons.
First, his defensive tenacity is top-shelf. He's cut from the same cloth as on-ball pests like Patrick Beverley and Marcus Smart. A matchup with Carter means an agonizingly long night is almost guaranteed. The fact that his ball pressure is so consistent is critical, too, since that reliability should finally keep him ahead of George Hill on the depth chart for good.
Second, Carter has the best chance of that trio to truly elevate his game and become something greater than he's been in the past. For much of his career, he's been more of a liability than a helper on offense, but he was awesome on that end across 20 games for Milwaukee last season, posting a wholly absurd 50.6/55.8/100 shooting slash and putting a cavern between his 2.5 assists and 0.4 turnovers per contest.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels
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The Wolves seemingly sacrificed everything and the kitchen sink in their summer blockbuster trade for Rudy Gobert, but there was one player they wouldn't let go: McDaniels. Obviously, they're betting on potential more than production, but that's an easy gamble to make in their eyes.
"We fought extremely hard to keep Jaden out of the deal," coach Chris Finch said, per Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. "Everybody wants Jaden. We get a lot of phone calls, as you should want a young (6'9"), two-way player with tremendous upside."
McDaniels is already a four-position stopper who flashes some drool-worthy abilities on the offensive end. He just needs to iron out his rough patches, like his propensity to foul and inconsistent outside shot. If that light bulb clicks, he could be a versatile, lockdown defender who also finds and finishes his own offensive opportunities.
New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Murphy III
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Last season, Murphy took a backseat to fellow Pelicans freshmen Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado, who routinely wowed the fanbase with their suffocating defense and seemingly insatiable energy.
Murphy, however, could swipe the spotlight this time around.
He needed to get stronger and improve his instincts, but both areas look good so far. If his three-ball keeps trending up, he'll be an asset alongside Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum.
New York Knicks: Quentin Grimes
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Any number of Knicks youngsters could have a case here—if Obi Toppin had a clear path to playing time, the spot might be his—but Grimes perhaps has the best blend of upside and realistic ways of realizing it.
He is, functionally speaking, a three-and-D wing, but he can do more with that label than most role players of that ilk.
His defense is as gritty as it gets, and he's versatile enough to race around with speedster lead guards or bother big wings. His offensive diet is almost entirely comprised of threes and point-blank shots without any of the efficiency-sapping shots in between. If he sees enough floor time, he could end this campaign by ranking favorably among the league's better young wings.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Aleksej Pokuševski
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The Sooner State might lead the league in breakout candidates given OKC's ongoing rebuilding project, and Pokuševski isn't necessarily the most obvious of the bunch.
He is, however, perhaps the most fascinating player on the roster. While his game and frame both need to mature, his ceiling stretches to towering heights.
While he's a 7-footer who splits his time between the 4 and 5 spots, he plays more like a perimeter shot-creator. His efficiency and decision-making both need work, but when everything clicks, it's spectacular. When he logged 30-plus minutes last season, he averaged 13.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.4 steals.
Orlando Magic: Wendell Carter Jr.
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Carter feels relatively established at this point, which speaks to the solid foundation he has already built for himself. Saying that, not enough attention is being paid to his growth potential.
He is 23 years old and has four NBA seasons under his belt. His next time averaging 30-plus minutes will be his first. Last season marked the first time his usage rate crept above 20 percent, and it still wasn't high enough (20.9).
Overcrowding in Orlando's frontcourt has likely held him back, but so too has the Magic's hesitance to use him like a featured player. He only attempted 15-plus shots 11 times last season, but he was unstoppable in those contests: 21.7 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists.
Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey
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If you thought Maxey broke out last season, you're not letting your imagination capture the full breadth of what he can become.
The 2021-22 campaign will go down as a leap year. He more than doubled his points (8.0 to 17.5) and assists (2.0 to 4.3) while simultaneously spiking his shooting rates from the field (46.2 to 48.5) and from three (30.1 to 42.7).
Still, it's possible that season was simply the appetizer. He has looked unguardable this preseason (63.6/66.7/90.9 shooting slash through three games), and while that's a tiny sample of an exhibition slate, it shows just how hard he is to handle when his outside looks are falling.
Phoenix Suns: Cameron Johnson
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All arrows point toward Johnson stepping forward for the Suns this season.
The club reportedly made him "off-limits" in its summer pursuit of Kevin Durant, per Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer. Johnson's presumed ascension is also likely tied to Jae Crowder's desire for a change of scenery.
Johnson, who just so happens to need a new deal between now and next summer, could make himself ultra pricey if he doesn't ink an extension. All elements of his game clicked last season—manifesting most clearly in his 46.0/42.5/86.0 shooting slash—and he hasn't even handled a starting gig yet.
Portland Trail Blazers: Josh Hart
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Hart isn't the most obvious breakout candidate for the Blazers. He's already 27 years old and a lot closer to his ceiling than many of Portland's prospects, so he doesn't have the most upward mobility in that locker room.
What he does have, though, is perhaps the highest likelihood of a leap year.
The Blazers want to win now, and Hart can help those efforts better than most of the Blazers' role players. He can shapeshift through various roles—sharpshooter, slasher, stopper, secondary playmaker—and always find a way to fit with Portland's more prominent players. He also played some of the best basketball of his career after landing with the Blazers at least season's deadline, averaging 19.9 points and 4.3 assists while posting a 50.3/37.3/77.2 slash line across 13 contests.
Sacramento Kings: Davion Mitchell
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Mitchell wasted little time establishing himself as one of the league's peskiest on-ball defenders. Now, he needs to get his offensive game going.
He wasn't bad on that end as a rookie, averaging 11.5 points and 4.2 assists. Still, he wasn't exactly blowing people away with his offensive prowess either, as his 41.8/31.6/65.9 shooting slash underwhelmed at every level.
Still, his accuracy rates from the field and the stripe improved over the course of the campaign, and in college, he showed similar improvement. As a freshman, he shot just 42.9 percent from the field and 28.8 percent from range. In his junior (and final) season, he skyrocketed those splash rates to 51.1 and 44.7, respectively.
San Antonio Spurs: Devin Vassell
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While the Spurs will lean on both Vassell and Keldon Johnson to soak up all of the offensive chances created by the offseason trade of Dejounte Murray, Vassell has a chance to make the bigger leap.
Now, that's partly because Johnson has shown more already, but it's also that Vassell has flashed the skills needed to capitalize on his immense growth potential.
He has most often functioned as a three-and-D support player to this point, but his flashes of future expansion have covered a lot of ground. He hits just enough pull-up jumpers to think off-the-dribble scoring is coming soon, but he has also shown a better understanding of setting up his teammates and freeing himself off the ball for quick-strike scores.
Toronto Raptors: Precious Achiuwa
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You could argue this spot belongs to reigning Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes, but he may not have much room to grow after such a spectacular debut. He already paced the club in minutes, so his floor time probably isn't going up. Theoretically, he could handle more shots and touches, but Toronto has a deep roster that just secured a 48-win season, so it might not want to shake things up.
As for Achiuwa, he could be moving toward another big step after impressing during his first season with the Raptors.
Defensively, he has the marks of an all-purpose stopper with the length to challenge shots at the rim and the quickness to keep in front of perimeter players away from the basket. Offensively, he's prone to bouts of tunnel vision, but he can finish above the rim and showed real promise with his outside shot after the All-Star break (38 makes at a 39.2 percent clip).
Utah Jazz: Lauri Markkanen
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Throw a dart at Utah's roster, and you're hitting either a breakout candidate or a veteran awaiting his trade out of town. Several Jazz youngsters were considered here—none more than Collin Sexton, who might seize control of this attack—but Markkanen gets the nod for both having ample upside and previously pushing toward it.
While he'd been handling role-player duties the past few seasons, he briefly held cornerstone status (or potential cornerstone status, at least) for the Bulls earlier in his career. As a sophomore in 2018-19, he was tasked with a career-high 25.1 usage percentage and responded by averaging 18.7 points on 43.0/36.1/87.2 shooting.
Why couldn't he average 20-plus points, or 10-plus rebounds for that matter? Size isn't the issue (7'0", 240 lbs) and neither is skill. He has three-point touch, is a strong finisher from close range and can create shots out of post-ups. Opportunities haven't always been there for him, but they should come his way early and often in Salt Lake City.
Washington Wizards: Rui Hachimura
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Hachimura had a strange 2021-22 season. To start, he missed nearly half of it with an undisclosed personal issue. By its end, though, he had pumped in the best field-goal (49.1) and three-point (44.7) percentages of his career while also pairing his highest usage rate (20.9) with his lowest turnover percentage (7.4).
"I joined the team a little bit late, but overall, I think personally it was a pretty good season for me," Hachimura said, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.
Offense is Hachimura's specialty, so it was encouraging to see him sharpen the best tool in his arsenal. Having said that, his next step is making strides as a defender and rebounder. He has the physical tools to be at least above-average in both areas, and he could significantly spike his career trajectory if he climbs even higher there.
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
