MLB Playoffs 2022: Division Series Picks and Predictions
Home-field advantage turned out to be a disadvantage in the wild-card round of Major League Baseball's 2022 postseason, as three of the four road teams managed to advance to the ALDS/NLDS.
Will things work out better for the teams who got to take the past few days off to relax (or go bowling, in Mookie Betts' case), or are we headed for additional and more stunning chaos in the four upcoming best-of-five series?
Before the action resumes on Tuesday afternoon, we've got a full preview of what's on tap in the Division Series.
Biggest storylines, intriguing prop bets, key batter vs. pitcher matchups, full schedules, series predictions and fictitious awards will all be covered as we prepare for what should be a wildly entertaining (up to) seven days of our national pastime.
The Main Storyline for Each Series
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Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: Can David Topple Goliath?
Not only is New York's 2022 payroll (approx. $265 million) more than triple that of Cleveland's (approx. $82 million), but there's actually a height-based David/Goliath thing going on here between the respective star players: 6'7" Aaron Judge and 5'9" José Ramírez.
It's not quite the same as the legendary photoshoot of 5'3" Muggsy Bogues and 7'7" Manute Bol, or even the same as comparing Judge to Houston's 5'6" Jose Altuve. However, it is a fitting manifestation of the divide between these two franchises, both in terms of current finances and all-time greatness: The Yankees are going for World Series No. 28 while the Guardians are after their first since 1948 and just their third overall.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: The Start of an AL West Changing of the Guard?
It has been 21 long years since the Mariners last played in the postseason, and this is no "flash in the pan, back to the basement next year" situation for Seattle. The M's have gone all-in for the long haul, locking up Julio Rodríguez, Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Eugenio Suárez, J.P. Crawford and Marco Gonzales through at least the 2024 season. (Crawford through 2026. Castillo through 2028. Rodríguez through 2034.)
But the AL West still runs through Houston, and the Astros are surely relishing the opportunity to prove how much of a gap remains between the plucky underdog from the Pacific Northwest and the juggernaut that has partaken in each of the past five ALCS.
Oddly enough, these division rivals haven't met since July, so this will be Seattle's first chance to unleash its big-time trade deadline acquisition (Castillo) against the Astros. Presumably lined up to pitch Game 2 on Thursday and potentially some of Game 5 on Monday if the series lasts that long, we'll see if he proves to be a difference-maker.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Start of an NL West Changing of the Guard?
Heading into the 2020 NLDS, San Diego was feeling good about itself for the first time in a long time. The big Manny Machado signing worked out. Fernando Tatis Jr. was just as great in Year 2 as he was in 2019. Even Wil Myers had a career year as the Padres made the postseason for the first time since 2006.
But then they ran into their big brothers from Los Angeles and got swept right out of the postseason.
They added Yu Darvish and Blake Snell that offseason. And trying to seize an opportunity to make a move to the forefront of the NL West, they went all-in at the trade deadline this year, gutting the farm system to bring in Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury and Josh Hader.
Will it finally be enough, or will the 111-win Dodgers assert their dominance once again?
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: First Step to a Repeat?
It's a broken record situation at this point, but the last team to repeat as World Series champions was the New York Yankees from 1998-2000. Plenty of recent reigning champions have made it back to the playoffs and were good enough to pull off the repeat feat, but it's just hard to be the hottest team at the rightest time in back-to-back Octobers.
Atlanta's first step comes against a division foe against whom it was quite evenly matched this season. The Braves won the series 11-8, but they were separated by just three total runs with 12 of the 19 games coming right down to the wire.
And after going more than a decade between postseason appearances and watching Atlanta win the division in each of the past five years, the Phillies have got to be champing at the bit for a "to be the best, you've got to beat the best" opportunity to shine.
Player Prop Bets Worth Considering
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Most Home Runs in Division Series Round: Manny Machado (+2200)
This is, admittedly, the ultimate sucker bet.
It's the first one that pops up when you click on the "Playoff Round Props" tab, because they want you to throw away your money here. You think to yourself, "Sure, Kyle Schwarber at +2000 to hit the most home runs in the wild-card round is a good bet," and then the NL's regular-season HR leader goes 0-for-7 with four strikeouts while the only players to actually hit multiple home runs are Teoscar Hernández and Trent Grisham.
But I'm not worried about it. I'm not worried about anything. Let's be suckers for a minute and try to benefit from the fact that these lines are inflated by the presence of Aaron Judge at +450.
Machado has 17 career home runs against current Dodgers pitchers. Five of those were off David Price, and Los Angeles will surely avoid letting that matchup happen. But he has four off Julio Urías and three off Clayton Kershaw, who will presumably start Games 1 and 2. Machado has also hit two home runs off Andrew Heaney, who would maybe start Game 4 if the series goes that long.
Most Hits in Division Series Round: Oscar Gonzalez (+3500)
If one sucker bet is fun, a second one will be a barrel of monkeys, right?
(Let the record show that I am actually throwing a few bucks on each of these prop recommendations, so I'm not just throwing garbage your way for the heck of it.)
Toronto's Bo Bichette—who was playing out of his mind toward the end of the season—was the only player with more hits (54) since Sept. 1 than Gonzalez's 44. And the Guardians right fielder continued his hot ways by going 3-for-9 against Tampa Bay, including the walk-off home run in the 15th inning.
The rookie has never faced the Yankees, but maybe he is headed for a Randy Arozarena type of debut year in the postseason.
Trea Turner Stolen Bases in Whichever Game Yu Darvish Starts: Over 0.5 (Line TBD)
Would love to just get a "Turner Over 1.5 SB in the NLDS" type of line here instead of needing to hope for the best in a specific game. However, you've got to like what figures to be around +500 odds when you consider Turner had four stolen bases against the Padres this season and San Diego was the worst in the majors at preventing stolen bases.
And though none of Turner's four swipes this season came at Darvish's expense, we're targeting his start because A) Turner has a career .353 batting average against Darvish and B) he has been historically pretty awful at keeping runners at first base. Dating back to 2016, he has allowed 96 stolen bases (tied for second-most in the majors) with just eight runners caught stealing.
Team/Series Prop Bets Worth Considering
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Total Away Game Wins: Under 7.5 (+115)
Total Home Game Wins: Over 8.5 (+105)
Road teams ruled the roost in the wild-card round, going a combined 6-3. If that trend were to continue, with up to 20 games on tap, we could be headed for as many as 13 road wins.
However, the wild-card round was four series between relatively evenly matched teams in which each team was able to line up its two or three best starting pitchers against its opponent's best.
In this round, the teams with home-field advantage won a combined 59 more regular-season games than their opponents, are well-rested and will have a significant pitching advantage at least in Game 1, possibly Game 2, too.
It would be a surprise if the home teams don't go at least 6-2 on Tuesday-Thursday, at which point the Away under and Home over would both be in fantastic shape.
Unfortunately, DraftKings won't let you parlay these two prop bets, which would be a +340 line if you could. But even just taking them both separately is probably worth it.
Any Series to Have 48+ Runs: Yes (+185)
All eight remaining teams have great pitching, and low-scoring pitching duels are par for the course in October.
But come on, at least one of these series is going to have a couple of scoring explosions, right?
Last year's Houston-Chicago ALDS got to 49 runs in just four games, while the Boston-Tampa Bay ALDS had 46 runs in four games. In 2020, Houston-Oakland had 55 total runs in four games. And if they could score like that in four games, surely either the Atlanta-Philadelphia or Cleveland-New York series could get there if it goes the distance.
Yankees vs. Guardians Total Strikeouts: Over 68.5 (-110)
I can appreciate that Cleveland had the most strikeout-averse offense in the majors this season, but this is absurdly low.
Before Game 2 against Tampa Bay went to extra innings, that series was at 37 total strikeouts. It ended at 55. And New York's pitching staff induced 75 more regular-season whiffs than Tampa Bay's did.
Even if the series ends in a sweep, 69 strikeouts is within the realm of possibility. But it should definitely get to 69 if the series goes at least four games. So, just think of this as a more profitable way to bet on Cleveland-New York going over 3.5 games, which has a line of -300.
Braves vs. Phillies Total Home Runs: Over 7.5 (-140)
In the 19 regular-season meetings, Atlanta hit 24 home runs and Philadelphia hit 22. That's an average of 2.4 per game. And Bryce Harper (11 games played) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (10 games) missed nearly half of those contests, so the offenses might be even more potent than they were on average during the regular season.
Similar to Cleveland-New York, the over might hit in three games and very likely would if they play at least four. That once again makes this more favorable to us than the -300 line for over 3.5 games.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction
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Schedule (All games on FS1)
- Game 1: San Diego at Los Angeles, Tuesday Oct. 11, 9:37 p.m. ET
- Game 2: San Diego at Los Angeles, Wednesday Oct. 12, 8:37 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Los Angeles at San Diego, Friday Oct. 14, TBD start time
- Game 4 (if necessary) Los Angeles at San Diego, Saturday Oct. 15, TBD start time
- Game 5 (if necessary) San Diego at Los Angeles, Sunday Oct. 16, TBD start time
Regular-Season Series: Dodgers 14-5 with +62 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
- Mookie Betts vs. Yu Darvish & Blake Snell: 14-for-65 (.215), 2 HR, 14 K
- Freddie Freeman vs. Darvish, Snell, Josh Hader & Joe Musgrove: 21-for-58 (.362), 5 HR, 12 K
- Manny Machado vs. Julio Urías & Clayton Kershaw: 19-for-62 (.306), 7 HR, 11 K
- Juan Soto vs. Urías & Kershaw: 2-for-26 (.077), 2 HR, 4 K
X-Factor: Stolen Bases
San Diego went 49-for-71 in stolen base attempts during the regular season while allowing opponents to go 89-for-102. Meanwhile, the Dodgers were 98-for-116 and allowed a not-great-but-better-than-San Diego 68-of-87. That's quite the word salad's worth of numbers, but the bottom line is Los Angeles figures to have a huge advantage in this department, should it choose to exploit it.
Prediction: Dodgers in Three
Not only did Los Angeles go 14-5 during the regular season, but San Diego needed extra innings at home to get three of its five wins in walk-off fashion. Maybe it finds a way to get another one of those dramatic victories in Game 3, but these teams simply aren't evenly matched. If any of the four series ends in a sweep, it figures to be this one.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Prediction
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Schedule (All games on TBS)
- Game 1: Seattle at Houston, Tuesday Oct. 11, 3:37 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Seattle at Houston, Thursday Oct. 13, 3:37 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Houston at Seattle, Saturday Oct. 15, TBD start time
- Game 4 (if necessary) Houston at Seattle, Sunday Oct. 16, TBD start time
- Game 5 (if necessary) Seattle at Houston, Monday Oct. 17, TBD start time
Regular Season Series: Astros 12-7 with +8 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
- Eugenio Suárez vs. Justin Verlander: 2-for-20 (.100), 1 HR, 13 K
- Houston Astros vs. Luis Castillo: 3-for-10 (.300), 3 K
- Kyle Tucker & Jose Altuve vs. Robbie Ray: 15-for-29 (.517), 4 HR, 5 K
- Seattle Mariners vs. Ryan Pressly: 21-for-66 (.318), 2 HR, 16 K
X-Factor: Starting Pitching
As alluded to above, there's basically no history between Seattle's new ace Luis Castillo and the Houston Astros. He faced them one time while with the Reds in June 2019, and that's it. Interesting dynamic there in what will probably be Game 2 of the series.
Houston's starting arsenal of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr. and especially Justin Verlander (who had five wins against Seattle this season) should overpower the Mariners. However, that's what we thought about New York's Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt against the Padres, so who knows what will happen in such a small sample size?
Prediction: Astros in Four
Despite the aforementioned domination of likely Game 3 starter Robbie Ray by Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve, there's just no way Houston is winning that first game in Seattle, right? After more than two decades of waiting for a home playoff game, those fans are going to create some Richter scale readings in the greater Seattle area. But I expect Houston to win the first two games at home and to be better prepared for the mayhem in Game 4 to finish off the series.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
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Schedule
- Game 1: Philadelphia at Atlanta, Tuesday Oct. 11, 1:07 p.m. ET (Fox)
- Game 2: Philadelphia at Atlanta, Wednesday Oct. 12, 4:55 p.m. ET (Fox)
- Game 3: Atlanta at Philadelphia, Friday Oct. 14, TBD start time (FS1)
- Game 4 (if necessary) Atlanta at Philadelphia, Saturday Oct. 15, TBD start time (FS1)
- Game 5 (if necessary) Philadelphia at Atlanta, Sunday Oct. 16, TBD start time (FS1)
Regular Season Series: Braves 11-8 with +3 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
- All Current Phillies vs. Spencer Strider: 5-for-63, 2 HR, 33 K
- Bryce Harper vs. Jesse Chavez, Raisel Iglesias and Kenley Jansen: 15-for-26 (.577), 6 HR, 6 K
- Austin Riley vs. Aaron Nola: 18-for-42 (.429), 3 HR, 10 K
- Dansby Swanson vs. Zack Wheeler: 6-for-37 (.162), 0 HR, 13 K
X-Factor: The Bullpens
Kenley Jansen has looked unreliable at various points throughout the season, but he still converted 41 saves and enters this series with a career 2.13 ERA and 19 saves in the postseason. And he is arguably the weak link in what has been a very dominant bullpen.
Philadelphia's situation is much, much different, to the point where Zach Eflin is apparently the closer now, despite not once pitching in a save situation in his 10-year career (minors and majors) until about three weeks ago. It almost feels inevitable that the Phillies will blow at least one save in this series.
Prediction: Braves in Five
We spent probably two full months expecting this to be a best-of-three wild-card round pairing, but instead we get treated to two extra games of watching these division rivals square off after a very evenly matched regular season. Atlanta should be able to get the job done, though, especially if rookie phenom Spencer Strider is able to make at least one start without re-aggravating his oblique injury.
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction
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Schedule (All games on TBS)
- Game 1: Cleveland at New York, Tuesday Oct. 11, 7:37 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Cleveland at New York, Thursday Oct. 13, 7:37 p.m. ET
- Game 3: New York at Cleveland, Saturday Oct. 15, TBD start time
- Game 4 (if necessary) New York at Cleveland, Sunday Oct. 16, TBD start time
- Game 5 (if necessary) Cleveland at New York, Monday Oct. 17, TBD start time
Regular Season Series: Yankees 5-1 with +24 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
- Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo vs. All Current Cleveland Guardians: 15-for-95 (.158), 4 HR, 26 K
- José Ramírez vs. All Current New York Yankees: 31-for-109 (.284), 7 HR, 27 K
- Current Yankees vs. Shane Bieber: 30-for-91 (.330), 7 HR, 28 K
- Myles Straw vs. Current Yankees: 4-for-47 (.085), 11 K
X-Factor: Defense
This isn't a "one team is good and the other is mediocre" type of X-Factor. Rather, the Guardians and Yankees were two of the best defensive teams all season, each pretty well destined for several Gold Glove finalists.
There might not be a single error in this entire series and there will probably be a few web gems. Between that and the mutually great bullpens, it should be a very low-scoring series.
Prediction: Guardians in Four
Those Judge, Stanton and Rizzo numbers listed above have to be terrifying if you're a Yankees fan. The trio has especially struggled with Cal Quantrill (2-for-19, no extra-base hits), who will presumably start Game 1 in New York. And if he manages to shut down the heart of New York's order and steal a road win, things swing in Cleveland's favor.
For the record, no one forced me to pick one of the underdogs. But you've got to think at least one of them will pull it off, right? And the Guardians have that "Team of Destiny" thing going for them after FanGraphs basically gave them a snowball's chance in hell of winning it all.
Award Predictions
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Officially, there are no awards given out for the Division Series. In fact, the only postseason awards are the ALCS MVP, the NLCS MVP and the World Series MVP. But let's pretend we live in a world with more trophies and make some predictions here.
Division Series Round MVP: José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
If only one underdog pulls off the upset, MVP should probably go to its best player, right? Ramírez has strong career numbers against both Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino and already did mash one critical home run this postseason. He comes through in the clutch at least twice against the Yankees to propel Cleveland to the ALCS.
Division Series Round Cy Young: Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
If this series does go five games, that means two starts for Atlanta's Game 1 ace, who has a 2.27 ERA in 28 starts dating back to mid-April. Philadelphia did have more success against Fried than most—3.13 ERA, 0-1 record in four starts—but he makes up for lost time with a pair of wins.
Rookie of the Division Series Round: Jeremy Peña, Houston Astros
Got some fantastic candidates available here. Michael Harris II, Julio Rodríguez, Steven Kwan, Spencer Strider and George Kirby, just to name a few. But we'll go with Peña, who quietly hit six home runs over his final 23 games, and who had four multi-hit games against Seattle this season.
Reliever of the Division Series Round: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
We had to bid adieu to Edwin Díaz, Ryan Helsley and Jordan Romano in the wild-card round, but there's a sensational closer still standing in Clase. Cleveland's closer led the majors with 42 saves and had a 0.93 ERA over his final 71 appearances of the regular season. He also retired all seven batters that he faced in the wild-card round. He won't fire an immaculate inning because he doesn't get all that many strikeouts, but he should be able to preserve any late-game leads the Guardians manage to get.
