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Kevin Durant and Victor Wembanyama
Kevin Durant and Victor WembanyamaChristian Petersen/Getty Images

Victor Wembanyama Could Change NBA Landscape Sooner Than Anyone Predicted

Andy BaileyNov 3, 2023

Victor Wembanyama has only played in five regular-season NBA games. On occasion, it's looked like he still has to scale most of the learning curve. Here and there, that slope will look steep.

But two of his five games have come against future Hall of Famer Kevin Durantโ€”a legend many have compared Wemby toโ€”and he aced both of those tests.

Most recently, in a nationally televised road game, with Devin Booker back in action, Wembanyama dropped an early career-high 38 points on 15-of-26 shooting. He grabbed 10 rebounds and blocked two shots for good measure. He was plus-21 in a 132-121 win.

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And in the five-plus minutes that KD was Wembanyama's nearest defender, the San Antonio Spurs scored 128.6 points per 100 possessions. For context, the Spurs' seasonlong offensive rating is 109.7.

You might say that discrepancy could just as easily be used to comment on the 35-year-old KD's defense. That is, unless you watched the game.

Wembanyama is already the type of player around whom teams orbit.

With his range (he already has eight threes through five games), defenses have to pay attention to him outside. And even when they do, it might not be enough.

Late in Thursday's win, shortly after Durant's Phoenix Suns had completely erased a 24-point, second-half deficit, Wemby drilled a game-sealing three that you just don't see from players his size (with apologies to Bol Bol).

Against an active defender in Drew Eubanks, Wembanyama caught a pass on the wing and a few feet beyond the three-point line. He pivoted to face up, faked a rip-through to his right, lost Eubanks with a right-to-left crossover and pulled up for an off-the-dribble three that put the Spurs up 10 with just over two minutes to play.

For a 7'4", 19-year-old to have footwork like that, as well as the composure it takes to hit the shot, is absurd.

And obviously, he's not just a jump shooter. The distances from which he can extend his go-go-gadget arms to finish at the rim make him a nightmare inside, too.

During San Antonio's first game against Phoenix, a game in which the Spurs came all the way back from 20 down to win, Wembanyama showed that if he's anywhere near the restricted area, he might be able to reach the basket.

No matter where he is on the floor, Wembanyama is going to command loads of attention, often from multiple defenders. There's little doubt that will make life easier for perimeter players like Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson.

And that's just considering his impact on offense. On the other end, he looks even more NBA-ready.

The Spurs are giving up a paltry 103.6 points per 100 possessions when Wembanyama's on the floor, compared to 130.6 when he's off.

He's averaging 2.2 blocks and 1.4 steals, but those numbers obviously don't explain the entirety of that impact.

In a sort of free safety-like role, Wembanyama can cover as much ground as two perimeter defenders. He's seemingly never out of a play. That reach illustrated by some of his dunks this season is an almost constant source of concern for would-be scorers. A shooter may feel open for a second, but Wembanyama can eliminate distances and contest shots in a flash.

Through five games, when he's the nearest defender, opponents are shooting 10-of-43 from the field.

Let me repeat that: 10-of-43.

This early in the season, one or two performances can shift numbers dramatically. Some or all of the above might look different in a couple weeks. But Wembanyama has played well enough to force some reconsideration of San Antonio's timeline.

His teammates (including Tre Jones, Zach Collins, Vassell and Johnson) deserve some credit for that too, but Wembanyama is the engine, particularly on defense.

If he keeps this up, the Spurs might hover around .500 this season. That's likely good enough to stay in play-in territory, and if they're doing that with Wembanyama at 19, imagine where they might be when he's 22?

San Antonio, of course, has some experience with this, but David Robinson made his NBA debut at 24. Tim Duncan was 21. Wemby has a longer runway than both, and he's already hitting a speed few could've expected at this point.

Whether that means the Spurs can make some kind of win-now trade is probably irrelevant. The timeline is accelerating with or without that (and San Antonio has traditionally been cautious on the trade front, anyway).

Again, there will be moments when it feels like we need to pump the brakes. Burlier bigs may move him around. His turnover rate is huge right now. There will be nights when the jumper isn't falling.

But even with those acknowledgments, Wemby is forcing us all to recalibrate both our short- and long-term expectations.

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