2012 TicketCity Bowl: Why Penn State Will Stumble in Tom Bradley's Finale

Big Ten Bowl Preview Extravaganza—Part 6 of 10

Unlike most of the other bowl games involving Big Ten bowl teams, the TicketCity Bowl chose two teams that are likely not thrilled to be playing in this game. Both teams were blown out in their final games with big rewards on the line.

Houston lost an automatic berth to the BCS by losing at home in the conference championship to Southern Miss. Penn State lost a spot in the inaugural Big Ten championship with a blowout loss at Wisconsin. In view of the small fanbase for Houston and the child sex abuse scandal at Penn State, both teams fell precipitously down the bowl list to Dallas.

Plus, both teams lost head coaches before this bowl game. Joe Paterno was infamously fired as a result of the November scandal in State College. Houston's success led to the hiring away of Kevin Sumlin by Texas A&M, so this will be another battle of interim head coaches.

So which of these teams will step up and overcome the adversity that ended the season? Let's take a look at the five keys for the Nittany Lions to find success against the Cougars:

No. 1: Contain QB Case Keenum with Pressure

Although this game has the misfortune of being in the same time slot as three great bowl games between the SEC and the Big Ten, those who do tune in will see the swan song of one of the greatest quarterbacks in college football history.

Case Keenum returned after being out of the 2010 season and broke many longstanding passing records for Division 1 football. One of the more memorable records broken was the nine touchdowns in a single game he put up against Rice in October.

Keenum never faced a defense like Penn State though, which only surrendered nine passing touchdowns the entire season. The Nittany Lions will try to lock down coverage on the Houston wide receivers, but Keenum will find the open man if given enough time.

As a result, the Nittany Lions will need to generate pressure on Keenum, preferably without bringing too many defenders on the blitz. If the front four on the defensive line cannot dominate the smaller players on the Houston offensive line, then Keenum will have a good day against Penn State.

Penn State cannot afford that, as the Nittany Lions will not put up a ton of points. Stopping Keenum is priority number one, as nothing else will matter if Penn State does not accomplish this goal.

No. 2: Don't Let Houston Dictate the Pace of the Game

With the notable exception of the Southern Mississippi loss, Houston excelled by scoring a lot of points and keeping games moving at a fast pace this season. Once QB Case Keenum gets rolling, then defenses become weak to the running game and the Houston offense snowballs the opposition.

The running game is led by RB Charles Sims and RB Michael Hayes, who combined for 20 touchdowns on the season.  Each running back exceeded 700 yards on the season and will try to find some running room against the stifling Penn State defense.

Penn State needs to shut Houston down early and allow its own offense to slow down the pace of the game with long, sustained drives. If Houston slips ahead to an early double-digit lead, then the Nittany Lions will be forced to come back without the services of starting QB Matt McGloin.

To say that would be a dicey proposition is being kind. Penn State must force this game to its preferred pace and scoring, as the Nittany Lions will not win a game in the 30's.

No. 3: Penn State Must Pound Away with the Running Game to Save the Defense

This bowl game will prove the well-known maxim that "the best defense is a good offense." If Penn State dominates the time of possession by pounding away with RB Silas Redd at the Houston defense, then the Cougars might not have enough offensive opportunities to blow out this game.

Redd will need to return to the form he had in October, when he averaged 26 carries per game and Penn State rolled to easy victories. Redd racked up 1188 rushing yards but only found the end zone seven times, which was a common problem for all Nittany Lions offensive players this season.

Houston's defense has given up over 170 yards per game on the ground, which has not mattered since most opponents have been playing from behind and running to their own detriment. That might not be the case with Penn State, which has a defense good enough to make the weak rush defense of Houston relevant over the course of the game.

Silas Redd is the most important player in this game for Penn State. He alone can save the defense from facing Keenum too many times.

No. 4: QB Rob Bolden Cannot Afford to Throw Interceptions

Starting QB Matt McGloin shared time with Bolden for much of the season, but McGloin pretty much took over around midseason and never looked back. However, McGloin was injured (concussion) in an altercation during bowl practices with WR Curtis Drake, and it appears unlikely that he will play in this game.

Thus, Bolden will be the man for Penn State for the first time since 2010. Bolden is more experienced than most backup quarterbacks with 548 yards passing, but his one touchdown to four interception ratio is troubling. Furthermore, Bolden often fails to make good reads in critical passing situations.

Houston will be selling out against Silas Redd and the running game if McGloin is not suited up, so the Nittany Lions will need to force the Cougars out of the box with a few completed passes. Bolden cannot afford to take that opportunity and throw it away, or throw it right into the hands of Cougar defensive backs.

Penn State has a great defense, but this will be a tough test for them. If Bolden puts the Nittany Lions defense in negative situations, then Houston will romp to an easy win.

No. 5: The Nittany Lions Must Be More Motivated to Be in Dallas

Penn State was not shy about expressing the severe disappointment the team felt in being passed over by multiple bowls despite the 9-3 record. Penn State had a great season outside the blowout loss to Wisconsin, yet these players were punished for the 10-year-old acts and omissions of Jerry Sandusky and others.

It is unclear from outside the program if Penn State interim coach Tom Bradley has been able to keep the players' minds on the task at hand. Considering the fight and resulting injury to McGloin and other small incidents that have happened in the last month, the signs do not look good for Penn State to be more motivated to win this game.

That being said, this is a big opportunity against a team that seemed unstoppable and on the road to the BCS for most of the season. It would be a huge feather in the cap of the Penn State program to shut down a quarterback like Keenum and a ranked team like Houston.

Especially with Houston still reeling from the Conference USA championship, this is a golden opportunity for Penn State to make a statement. For Tom Bradley, such a win may just make him the right man for the job despite many others being interviewed before him for the full time head coaching position.

Prediction

Penn State will generate pressure in the first half to disrupt Keenum, but the Nittany Lions will not punch in touchdowns when Houston turns the ball over. As a result, Houston will still be able to generate just enough offense to gain the lead at halftime and hold it throughout the second half.

Bolden will throw a late touchdown pass to get the Nittany Lions close, but Houston will stop any onside kick shenanigans and will send Keenum out with a win.

Houston 28, Penn State 25.

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David Fitzgerald II is a Big Ten Football Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.  Follow him on Twitter for new article updates @BuckeyeFitzy