B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Win Totals
'Tis the season for betting on college football win totals.
Heisman odds? Lovely.
National championship odds? Absolutely.
But locking in overs and unders on teams you feel strongly about is one of the finest offseason rituals. That is also what we're dissecting today.
Locks of the Week has been a staple at Bleacher Report for nearly a decade, and a few will focus on actual football games. (Yes, we'll be betting on Week 0. I hope you didn't even have to ask.)
Before we get there, however, we're diving into future betting options around CFB. Here are some of my favorites as the season inches closer.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and current as of Wednesday, Aug. 10.
Nebraska Over 7.5 Wins (-110)
Each week last year, Nebraska found remarkable ways to lose football games.
It was like a script out of a movie: Blown leads, back-breaking turnovers and special teams miscues were just a small part of the Cornhusker experience.
Yes, it was bad. But Nebraska was also competitive in pretty much every game it played in. Oh, and Scott Frost completely revamped the roster and coaching staff this offseason.
The two most notable additions are actually linked. Quarterback Casey Thompson, formerly of Texas, is on track to be the starter. Mark Whipple, the team's new offensive coordinator, is hoping to recapture some of the magic he found with Kenny Pickett at Pittsburgh last year.
Most of all, however, I like the schedule. Nebraska has a cozy start to the season, assuming it gets past Northwestern in Ireland. The Cornhuskers also play Oklahoma and Wisconsin at home.
A fast start is crucial for this bet and Scott Frost's job security. If Nebraska stops unearthing ways to blunder—and that remains a sizable if—the team seems poised for a dramatic rebound.
(This section will self-destruct the moment Nebraska loses to Northwestern.)
Utah State Over 7 Wins (+100)
One of the best stories of last season, Utah State delivered an 11-win season. The Aggies won eight of their last nine games, culminating a brilliant year with a dominant bowl win over Oregon State.
Duplicating that effort will likely be a challenge, but the encore should be solid. More specifically to this wager, I believe Utah State should win eight games.
Beyond an early-season trip to Alabama, every game on the schedule feels winnable. The offense will need to replace a ton of production at wideout, but quarterback Logan Bonner is back, healthy and ready to deliver another spectacular year.
The Aggies should be 3-1 heading into games at BYU and home versus Air Force. Winning one of those two games, which is by no means a given, should set Utah State up for a strong second half.
We don't need the Aggies to win 11; eight will do just fine, thanks.
Arkansas Under 7.5 Wins (-150)
To be clear, I love Sam Pittman. He's done a fabulous job since arriving at Arkansas despite playing a brutal schedule each year.
Oh, and I really like quarterback KJ Jefferson as well. He looked brilliant in spurts last season, and there's no reason he shouldn't improve in 2022.
But that schedule. It's still a monster.
Arkansas opens with Cincinnati. It's a difficult matchup, although the Razorbacks should win. From there, however, the Hogs play Texas A&M at a neutral site and road games at Mississippi State, BYU and Auburn. Arkansas also plays Alabama, an improved South Carolina team, LSU and Ole Miss at home.
Pittman's team might actually be better in 2022, but the final results simply won't show it.
Arizona State Under 6 Wins (-115)
First, let's talk about this number. When I wrote my first draft for this story, Arizona State was listed at 6.5 wins. That number has since moved, although I'm not shying away. In fact, I would advise you to move quickly because it likely won't stop.
It's a strange time for Arizona State football. As the NCAA investigates the school for recruiting violations, a large number of players transferred out of ASU this past offseason. The loss of quarterback Jayden Daniels is particularly concerning, and it will undoubtedly impact the offense.
Head coach Herm Edwards will enter the season atop all hot-seat rankings, and it's not hard to see why.
As for the schedule, it's a mixed bag. An early trip to Oklahoma State is likely a loss, and the Sun Devils play at home against Utah and on the road versus USC the next week.
Ultimately, Arizona State's season will be dictated by more winnable games: Colorado, Stanford, Arizona and Oregon State. Although given the exodus of talent, ASU feels like a program that would be thrilled to even make a bowl.
I would be thoroughly shocked if this team did just that.
UCLA Over 8.5 Wins (-105)
Let's ditch the Big Ten realignment talk for a moment. UCLA finally broke through last season, and there are reasons to believe it wasn't a fluke.
It begins with the quarterback and running back. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has become better each and every year under center, and that will likely be the case once again. (Also, it feels like he's been in college for at least 18 years.)
Having Zach Charbonnet to hand the ball off to also helps. Charbonnet ran for 1,137 yards and averaged 5.6 yards per carry last season. The offense should roll, although the defense, which made major strides last year, is where I believe the floor of this team rises.
UCLA opens with three comfortable games, plays both Utah and USC at home and could be unbeaten entering the game against the Utes on Oct. 8.
While I wouldn't go as far as to call this a dark-horse playoff team, it wouldn't shock me to see UCLA flirt with a conference championship.
BYU Under 8.5 Wins (-130)
In terms of unique and challenging schedules, very few have it tougher than BYU.
Games at home against Baylor and Arkansas, on the road against Oregon and at a neutral setting against Notre Dame headline a slate that is deep and difficult. Unlike most Power Five teams that lean into a schedule slowly, BYU jumps right in.
There are tough games outside these obvious ones as well. Liberty, Utah State, Boise State and even East Carolina won't be gimmies.
Now, there is good news. Quarterback Jaren Hall is one of the most underappreciated players in the sport. Make a point to watch him this year—you will not be disappointed. He also gets back his leading receiver in Puka Nacua.
The issue? Well, beyond the schedule, running back Tyler Allgeier is off to the NFL. Given his performance the past few seasons for BYU, his absence is certainly a concern.
Although the Cougars won 10 games last year, I would be surprised if they can duplicate that effort, let alone win nine games.
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