Revisiting Predraft Scouting Reports for Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and Other MLB Stars
The 2022 MLB draft is now just a few short weeks away, as the latest crop of standout amateur talent is set to begin their pro baseball journeys.
For front offices and prospect writers alike, now is the time to pore over scouting reports and assemble big boards, but even with all the resources available to teams today, those scouting reports can wind up looking downright silly in hindsight.
With that in mind, we decided to look back at the predraft scouting reports of some of today's biggest stars, from Mike Trout to Aaron Judge to reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.
Scouting reports were pulled from the archives of Baseball America and MLB.com, with a quick breakdown of some notable takeaways provided for each player.
Let us know who you'd like to see for a potential Part 2 to this article, but for now, let's dive into our first batch of 10 current MLB stars.
1B Pete Alonso, New York Mets
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MLB.com (No. 65 prospect): "He's always had raw power, but didn't always look like he could tap into it consistently. He shortened his swing and began to use the whole field more effectively, showing extra-base pop to the opposite field. ... Alonso will have a lot to prove as a right-right first baseman, as his bat will have to carry him to the big leagues. His natural raw power gives him the chance to fit the profile well."
After missing time to injury early in his college career, Alonso hit .374/.469/.659 with 18 doubles, 14 home runs and 60 RBI as a junior playing on a Florida team that also featured future MLB players Jonathan India, A.J. Puk, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Alex Faedo, Dane Dunning, Shaun Anderson, Kirby Snead and Mark Kolozsvary.
He wound up going No. 64 overall in the 2016 draft, and three years later he set the rookie home-run record with 53 homers and 120 RBI.
The right-handed hitting first baseman profile has a long history of disappointment, but Alonso is an example of things breaking right. He stands as the best-case scenario for 2022 Golden Spikes winner Ivan Melendez.
SS Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
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Baseball America (No. 26 prospect): "A Tuscaloosa, Ala., native, Anderson missed much of his high school baseball career due to basketball, first because of knee injuries as a sophomore, then because of a state title run as a junior that overlapped much of baseball season. He focused on baseball in junior college and hit .328 with five home runs in the Jayhawk League last summer. ... Some scouts see power in Anderson's bat and consider him a potential Brandon Phillips, while others see him as a faster version of Orlando Hudson."
Anderson did not play baseball between Little League and his junior year of high school, but when he stopped growing at 6'1", he decided to focus on baseball in college rather than basketball. The only school to offer him a baseball scholarship was East Central Community College in Decatur, Mississippi.
He hit .495 during his sophomore season to lead all JUCO players, and after going undrafted as a freshman, was chosen 17th overall in the 2013 draft by the Chicago White Sox.
His contact-oriented approach and low walk rate make the Brandon Phillips comparison a good one, though he's a better pure hitter and all-around athlete than Phillips with a bit less power.
RHP Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
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MLB.com (No. 39 prospect): "While some worry that his arm is too quick and that effort in his delivery could mean a move to a bullpen, Burnes has shown the ability to maintain velocity deep into starts. So long as he can continue to repeat his delivery consistently, he should have a chance to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter."
There were 53 pitchers taken in the 2016 draft before Corbin Burnes finally heard his name called at No. 111 overall in the fourth round.
During his junior season at Saint Mary's, he went 8-2 with a 2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 101.2 innings, but concerns about the effort in his delivery and a less-than-stellar showing in the Cape Cod League the previous summer caused him to slip below where he was ranked on most predraft big boards.
He flew through the minors to make his MLB debut on July 10, 2018, but after impressing as a reliever it took him some time to successfully transition to a starting role. After a breakout performance during the shortened 2020 season, he took home NL Cy Young honors in 2021.
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1B Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Baseball America: "A member of both USA Baseball's youth and junior national teams, Freeman dominated for the youth team in 2005 before struggling in the World Junior Championship last fall (2-for-21) in Cuba. His stock has rebounded this spring, as he helped El Modena High to a playoff berth as both a hitter and pitcher. While his track record with Team USA and in showcases makes him a top-three-rounds talent as a power hitter, scouts are increasingly intrigued with Freeman as a pitcher. Just 17, he has excellent size, and while working as El Modena's closer he has shown control of two present plus pitches: a heavy 90-93 mph fastball and a power slider. His feel for pitching and clean arm action belie his pitching inexperience--and his desire to remain a hitter."
With a 6'5", 220-pound frame, it's not hard to envision Freeman chewing through innings as a workhorse starter at the top of an MLB rotation, but it's fair to say he made the right choice in his desire to be a position player.
The Atlanta Braves selected him 78th overall in the second round of the 2007 draft, two picks after the Florida Marlins drafted a high school slugger by the name of Giancarlo Stanton.
A career .296/.384/.508 hitter in 13 MLB seasons, it's funny that the only mention of his offensive prowess in this scouting report is that he has enough power potential to be a top-three-round pick. With just three 30-homer seasons to his credit, he's a better pure hitter than he is a power threat.
OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
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Baseball America (No. 30 prospect) "Judge puts on jaw-dropping batting practice displays, but some scouts worry that his power won't translate to games... Judge profiles as a .250 hitter and is going to strike out a lot, which comes with the territory for tall power hitters with long arms. A team can live with the strikeouts if he hits 30-plus home runs a year."
MLB.com (No. 24 prospect): "Judge's raw power from the right side of the plate is legitimate and if he can hit consistently enough to tap into it, it could be a plus tool in the future. That 'if' might've been why he didn't go earlier, though Judge isn't an all-or-nothing, one dimensional player."
The concerns about Judge's hit tool were very real when he was selected 32nd in the 2013 draft.
He hit .369/.461/.655 with 15 doubles, 12 home runs and 36 RBI in 56 games during his junior season at Fresno State, but he also posted a 21.5 percent strikeout rate. He also hit just six home runs in 113 games during his first two seasons on campus, so the question of whether his tremendous raw power would regularly show up in games was a legitimate one as well.
Of course, that all sounds silly now after he burst onto the scene with a 52-homer rookie season and currently leads the majors with 28 long balls through his first 73 games in 2022. The biggest takeaway here might be that his .278 career average has far exceeded expectations.
3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
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Baseball America (No. 3 prospect): "He's of Dominican descent and is a tall, lanky shortstop in South Florida, attracting inevitable Alex Rodriguez comparisons. Machado is skinny at 6-foot-2, 180 pounds but surprisingly strong and has a swing that produces hard contact. ... Scouts project him to hit for average future power, with a chance to be a .300 hitter. Defensively, Machado will remain at shortstop as a pro and has a chance to be an above-average defender."
The biggest immediate takeaway here is that Machado has tacked 38 pounds onto his frame since he was selected third in the 2010 draft behind Bryce Harper (WAS) and Jameson Taillon (PIT).
He likely would have stayed at shortstop had it not been for the presence of J.J. Hardy when he was first called up in Baltimore, and now that he's filled out his frame, he's lost a step and better fits the third-base profile.
The big whiff on this scouting report is that he'll only hit for average future power, as he's topped 30 home runs five different times and ranks 17th among active players with 263 career homers in 11 seasons.
LHP Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays
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MLB.com (No. 14 prospect): "While McClanahan's strikeout rate has been really high, his walk rate has been as well. That, plus a delivery that features a fairly big recoil, has led some evaluators to project him as a future reliever—albeit one who could get to the big leagues in a hurry. But with a loose and very athletic frame, McClanahan might be able to get away with those mechanics."
McClanahan has been the breakout pitcher of 2022. He currently leads the American League in ERA (1.77), WHIP (0.83), strikeouts (123) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.69). That last stat is the big one, as he's walked just 16 batters in 91.1 innings after command issues were his biggest red flag coming out of college.
After redshirting as a freshman at South Florida, he struck out 224 batters in 127.2 innings during his two active seasons while posting a 3.31 ERA. However, he also walked 84 batters, and his walk rate actually ticked up during his final season with a 5.7 BB/9 rate in 76.1 innings.
Those issues were quickly rectified in the Tampa Bay pipeline. He posted a far more manageable 3.2 BB/9 in 127.2 innings in the minors before making his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason and eventually settling into a spot in the MLB rotation last year.
RHP Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres
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Baseball America (No. 90 prospect): "At his best, some scouts say they saw him touch 97-98, to go along with a hammer curveball in the 76-82 mph range. Usually, though, he throws a three-quarters slurve in the 77-80 range. Musgrove also mixes in a split-change. A former offensive and defensive lineman for the Grossmont football team, Musgrove is a tenacious competitor. He still has to work on repeating his delivery more consistently and fine-tuning his secondary stuff, but it's easy to dream on him becoming a big league workhorse starter."
It's been a long, winding road for Musgrove to develop into a frontline starter with the San Diego Padres.
He was the No. 46 overall pick in the 2011 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays, who flipped him to the Houston Astros the following summer as part of a massive 10-player deadline deal. He made his MLB debut with the Astros in 2016 and spent two seasons as a swingman on the staff before he was traded again to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of the Gerrit Cole blockbuster.
His repertoire has changed considerably since his predraft scouting report, as he now pitches off a low-80s slider and backs it with a mid-90s fastball, curveball and cutter.
3B Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
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Baseball America (No. 164 prospect): "As one of the top two-way prospects in this year's draft class, Riley has presented a riddle for scouts to solve this spring. Entering the year, the prevailing opinion was leaning toward him becoming a pitcher as a professional. But he's done better as a hitter this season and more scouts have come around to see him as a future position player. ... Listed at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, he produces good bat speed and has plus power potential. He has the arm strength for third base, but he'll always be offense over defense as a position player. On the mound, he can get his fastball up to 95 mph, but more typically sits 90-91."
Relative to Baseball America's predraft rankings, Riley was a massive reach by the Atlanta Braves as the No. 41 pick in the 2015 draft.
He was a gamble in part because he was more or less a finished product physically given his 6'3", 230-pound frame in high school, making it difficult to bank on any further projection beyond his current tools.
However he made an immediate impact, hitting .304/.389/.544 with 12 home runs and 40 RBI in 60 games in rookie ball after signing, and his prospect stock took off from there. Aside from his offensive production, he has developed into a better third basemen than most expected.
CF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
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Baseball America (No. 22 prospect): "Last year, even in the fall, he had a tendency to bail out in the batter's box, particularly against sliders. This spring he has quieted his approach and improved against breaking balls, and he's shown the ability to hit hard line drives to all fields, though his swing still gets loopy and long at times. Halfway through the spring, Trout even began working on hitting left-handed, and he showed some aptitude for it. Trout's frame and skill set draws comparisons to Aaron Rowand, but he's a faster runner. ... Like Rowand, Trout is a grinder who always plays the game hard."
Lots to unpack here.
Let's start with the fact that a faster version of Aaron Rowand was what scouts were pegging as a best-case scenario for a player who is going to go down as one of the best of all-time. No offense to Rowand, but my goodness.
There's also the fact that Trout started hitting left-handed his senior year of high school and was showing "some aptitude for it" which might speak as much to the level of competition he was facing in New Jersey as anything.
Still, nothing here says future GOAT, which just shows what a crapshoot the MLB draft can be even with all the advancements in scouting departments around the league.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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