2011 Insight Bowl: Why Iowa Will Not Pull a Second Straight Shock in Tempe

Big Ten Bowl Preview Extravaganza - Part 2 of 10

The 2011 Insight Bowl looks a lot like last year's game in Tempe, when Iowa came in under the radar and upset a seemingly more powerful Missouri team. The Hawkeyes are back this season as a two-touchdown underdog against Oklahoma.

However, this game has all the trappings of another upset. The Hawkeyes are happy to be heading to this bowl again and always play well in bowl games under head coach Kirk Ferentz.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma is not happy to be in a middling bowl game following two losses in the final three games. The Sooners are also racked with major injuries on the offensive side of the ball.

Despite all that, Iowa will not have enough to erase the memory of Ferentz's fart jokes during the press conferences leading up to this game with another upset victory. The Big Ten will drop to 1-1 in bowl season following this game thanks to the major mismatch of team talent.

If Iowa is to have a chance to win, here are five keys to Hawkeye success:

No. 1: Punish the Mistake-Prone Sooners Offense

Oklahoma turned the ball over an astounding 28 times this season, which ranks eighth highest in FBS football. These turnovers were evenly split between 14 lost fumbles and 14 interceptions.

Part of the problem for Oklahoma has been the continuous injury problems, especially in the second half of the season. Leading rusher Dominique Whaley and leading receiver Ryan Broyles were lost for the year in the second half of the season, which forced the ball into more inexperienced players' hands.

Despite having Heisman Trophy aspirations at the beginning of the season, quarterback Landry Jones showed his true colors following the loss of Broyles (zero touchdowns and five interceptions in the final three games). Jones will need to have figured out his new receiver set before this bowl game kicks off, or else the troubles may continue.

Iowa's defense was not good at generating turnovers this season, but the opportunities will be there thanks to the Sooners offense. In addition to the losses above, receiver Jaz Reynolds, running back Brandon Williams, and fullback Aaron Ripkowski are also out for this game.

Similar to the game plan that disrupted Blaine Gabbert last season, look for the Hawkeyes to pressure Landry Jones and force him to make quick decisions. The defensive backfield must then make plays to turn the tide in this game.

No. 2: Iowa's Ragtag Bunch of Running Backs Must Gain 200 Yards Collectively

During the weak closing stretch of the season, Oklahoma surrendered well over 100 rushing yards to seven consecutive opponents. In the Big 12, this is a real sign of weakness on the defensive front.

Normally exploiting this weakness would be second-nature for a Big Ten team like the Hawkeyes.

But for the second straight season, Iowa will enter this bowl game without its leading rusher, as Marcus Coker has been suspended for a violation of team rules. Coker was a dominant force with 1,384 yards this season, but he was a one-man show as the next closest rusher has 18 carries and 79 yards on the season.

Last year, an unknown freshman (Coker) took over this bowl game despite the loss of then-starter Adam Robinson with a 219 yard rushing performance.

Junior RB Jason White will be the starter, although expect FB Brad Rogers and freshmen Jordan Canzeri and Damon Bullock to also receive some carries in this game. One of the two freshman will need to have a breakout to help the group match what Coker did last season.

If Iowa can muster 200 yards of rushing offense, then the high-powered Oklahoma offense will not be able to hold the ball long enough to blow away an inconsistent Iowa defense.

No. 3: QB James Vandenberg Needs to Have His Best Game Since His First Start

Thanks to Coker's heroics, James Vandenberg has not needed to be the efficient passing machine that his predecessor Ricky Stanzi was. However, Vandenberg has put up a nice season thanks in large part to Big Ten leading receiver Marvin McNutt (1,269 yards and 12 touchdowns).

In this game, Vandenberg will need to be nearly perfect to cover for the missing Coker. His 23 touchdowns to five interception ratio this season is a good sign that he can come up with this type of effort.

Oklahoma has far more talent in the defensive backfield than Vandenberg has faced in most games this season though. With the Sooners knowing that Iowa could become one-dimensional in this game, look for the safeties to take a lot of risks in attempts to grab interceptions from Vandenberg.

But that will open the door for Vandenberg to have a huge day if the risks do not pay off. This could be similar to the other truly impressive start for Vandenberg, which was his first back in 2009 when Stanzi was injured heading into the showdown in Columbus for the Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl berth.

In that game, Vandenberg started rough but led a heroic comeback to force overtime before the Hawkeyes fell to Ohio State. Similar grit and gusto will be necessary for Vandenberg to lead the Hawkeyes to a win in this game.

No. 4: Put The Sooners Down Early

Going into this season, most prognosticators had Oklahoma and LSU or Alabama in the national championship. Even with a home loss to Texas Tech, the Sooners were in position to perhaps overcome Alabama to play the Tigers with three weeks left in the season.

Then the season unraveled with the loss of Ryan Broyles.

Although Oklahoma has finally had a few weeks to adjust to the available options at receiver and running back, the Sooners have to be terribly disappointed to be embarrassed by Oklahoma State and be out of the BCS for only the third time since 2001. Will the national-title-caliber Sooners show up to regain some pride in this bowl game?

If Iowa jumps on Oklahoma early, then the Sooners may just throw in the towel readily on an underachieving season. Iowa could also then grind out long possessions with the running game rather than needing to pass to come back in the game.

When playing a heavy favorite who may not be motivated to play in a bowl game, the best way to keep the negative feelings going is to seemingly finish the job early. Iowa has to start quickly to win this bowl game.

No. 5: Bring Some Ferentz Magic To Tempe

And I'm not referring to the "flatulence magic" that Ferentz brought to the bowl game press conferences in an attempt to bring levity to tough questioning.

Iowa fans do not want to remember this season as the 7-6 campaign where the biggest stories were a Rhabdo outbreak and a fart joke during bowl season. Instead, Iowa fans want to remember this bowl game fondly with another upset of a highly ranked Big 12 team.

To give Iowa fans the finish they desire, Ferentz will need to pull some of his bowl game magic out of the hat once again. Perhaps this game will come down to one big Hail Mary like the 2005 Capital One Bowl win against LSU.

Alternatively, the trick plays that have burned Oklahoma against heavy underdogs in the past could come back if Ferentz is as creative as most other coaches have been in the early bowl games.

As long as Ferentz stalks the sidelines in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes will always have a chance to win tough bowl games. His ability to make something out of nothing could reappear when least expected on Friday night.

Game Prediction

Although Ferentz is a great coach and motivator during bowl season, Bob Stoops can more than match Ferentz with big game wins. Accordingly, Stoops will have Landry Jones and his offense ready to roll once more in this bowl game.

The Hawkeye defense will fail to come up with the turnovers needed to keep Iowa ahead, and Oklahoma will pile on the pressure with a double-digit halftime lead.

The Hawkeyes are too well coached to fall apart, but the game will never be in doubt in the second half. Oklahoma strolls to a rare easy victory against Iowa in a bowl game.

Oklahoma 31, Iowa 20.