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2011 ATP ranking: 11
2011 Record: 33-16
US Open seed: 11
Odds to win 2011 US Open: 33:1
Odds Federer is eliminated: 10/3:1
I'm going with my first upset here, taking Tsonga over American Mardy Fish (8) in their first match ever against each other.
Tsonga got injured in Cincinnati, but I expect him to come on strong at Queens and face Federer in Round 4.
Against Federer Tsonga has won three and lost four, with one win each on hard court matches.
In the most recent game they played, Tsonga eliminated Roger in five sets at Wimbledon, defeating the Swiss 3-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 and 6-4.
It has to be said that Tsonga seems particularly adept at beating Federer, so expect a very tough game here for Roger, and if he's to win it, he'll probably have to go five sets to do it.
If Mardy Fish is here though, it could be way easier for Roger, as he has beaten him six out of seven times they've played.